2010-10-14

Gold Price up from the release of the FOMC minutes

As expected, gold price up from the release of the FOMC minutes, which stated the Fed’s readiness to implement a second round of quantitative easing. Citing that if the pace of economic growth remained too slow “to make satisfactory progress toward reducing the unemployment rate”, the Fed stood ready to provide additional monetary accommodation “before long”. This implies that further monetary easing could be announced as early as the next meeting (2-3 Nov).

However, with no indication as yet of the amount, market estimates vary between $100bn to $1.5tr. The average estimate is around $500bn, which we believe is consistent with the current gold price of around $1350. Expectations of further QE, and the associated dollar weakness, should keep gold buoyant for the remainder of the month.

However, the risk is that the Fed announces a more conservative approach to QE than markets are expecting. A likely scenario might be a staggered accommodative program (for e.g. a $100bn per month), which could detract from gold. Profit-taking and lacklustre physical demand could amplify this downward pressure.

Gold support is at $1,346 and $1,336. Resistance is at $1,362 and $1,367.

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