2010-11-02

Gold physical market is now providing support rather than resistance

Investor estimate remains that the gold market (and by extension many other commodities) are pricing $500bn of QEII already. They will interpret the impact on commodity prices of any QE announcement relative to this $500bn. As highlighted on Friday last week, our Standard Bank Gold Physical Flow index (GPFI) shows the gold physical market is now providing support rather than resistance.
Overall we believe that
  1. the physical market should provide support for gold on pull-backs until the end of January.
  2. However, post-Diwali (5 November), this support may be situated at a lower price level — possibly below $1,300 (depending on FOMC actions on Wednesday
  3. We believe that resistance in the physical market may grow stronger post- China New Year and run well into 2011.
Gold support is at $1,344 and $1,330. Resistance is at $1,367 and $1,375.

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