2011-02-12

Inflation concerns are once again returning to view

Although trading down for most of yesterday, precious metals made a strong rebound in the afternoon session. The betterthan- expected jobless claims numbers were largely ignored, as risk appetite waned and safe-haven buying resumed. Although activity in China remains muted, there was evidence of strong interest for silver. This contributed to silver’s push above the
psychological $30 mark. At these prices though, not much physical demand is forthcoming.

Inflation concerns are once again returning to view, as investors anticipate next week’s release of Chinese price data. Expectations are for the upward trend in both consumer and producer inflation to continue (consensus estimates are 6.2% y/y and 5.4% y/y, respectively). China’s recent rate hike is also fuelling these inflation worries. This is providing support for precious
metals, especially gold, as investors seek to hedge against rising global prices. The ongoing political instability in Egypt is also contributing to increased interest in precious metals, as investor uncertainty leads to greater risk aversion. With more protest planned, this should continue to provide some lift.

Gold support is at $1,353 and $1,345. Resistance is at $1,369 and $1,375.

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