2011-04-22

Gold Price Hits USD1,500


Despite a resurgence in risk appetite (equities are up across the globe and emerging market currencies are strengthening), Gold continue to benefit from steady safe-haven demand. Gold posted another record high, for the fifth consecutive day, while silver pushed to the highest price seen since January 1980, before easing slightly lower. Even PGM, the laggards in recent weeks, have posted some strong gains.

The main impetus appears to be concerns over rising inflation, leading investors into Gold as a means of protecting their wealth. Lingering concerns over the Eurozone debt situation (speculation is that the Greek fiscal restructuring might occur as early as this weekend) and the Libyan stalemate are also making for healthy interest in precious metals. Extended dollar weakness (a trade-weighted basis the dollar currently stands at 16-month low) is another factor providing support for the metals.

We expect the impetus to remain to the upside today. However, markets are relatively illiquid ahead of the holidays. Therefore, we would caution that prices could respond erratically to any developments/announcements. In terms of data flow, the most significant today would be US jobless claims and leading indicator figures. Should the numbers prove to be appreciably worse
than expected, this might limit they upside for PGM, given the market’s recent concerns over industrial demand.

Gold support is at $1,498 and $1,488. Resistance is at $1,512 and $1,516.

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