2011-07-20

Speculation surrounding a possible Greek default has resurfaced

Gold managed a sustained break of $1,600 in overnight trade, reaching yet another all-time high. This is largely the result of sovereign debt fears in the Eurozone and US. Today, the US House votes on the US’s debt ceiling. Although the legislation is expected to be passed, the lack of support in the Senate means that the vote will be largely symbolic and bring the US no closer to a satisfactory resolution. This uncertainty should keep investors interested in the safe-haven advantages of Gold.

The focus will also be firmly on the emergency meeting of EU leaders this Thursday. Speculation surrounding a possible Greek default has resurfaced, with not much confidence that this week’s meeting will result in measures to avoid a default. CFTC data released last Friday (covering the week ended 12 July) reveals that silver net speculative length continued to rise, with a further 334.2 tonnes added last week. This time, the largest contributor was the 191.6 tonnes added to speculative long positions, although the 142.6 tonnes shed from speculative shorts was also considerable. Short positions now stand at 612.1 tonnes, the lowest level this year, and well below last year’s average of 1,166.9 tonnes. The sustained decline in short positions is an indication that silver is shrugging off the market’s bearish stance.

Another sign of investor interest returning is the respectable 105 tonnes of silver bought by ETFs over the past week. Currently at 14,047.6 tonnes, ETF holdings of silver seem to be making a tentative recovery from recent lows (13,939.7 tonnes), although given that these gains have only come in the past two weeks, we remain sceptical, and look for further confirmation of
sustained investor interest.

Gold support is at $1,594 and $1,584. Resistance is $1,612 and $1,618.

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