2011-08-18

“QE3 most likely scenario.” support gold price

The gold price, at $1,785 per ounce, traded near unchanged on Wednesday following the news that producer prices rose more than anticipated. The price of gold showed a muted reaction to the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI), which rose 0.2% month over month and 7.2% year over year – both slightly hotter than a Bloomberg survey of economists. Commodities moved higher across the board with crude oil rising 1.5% to $87.99 per barrel and copper advancing 0.6% to $4.04 per pound. Silver rose above $40, climbing $0.15 to $40.05 per ounce.

In the U.S., the gold price also indirectly received support from a Goldman Sachs research report. In a note to clients, Francesco Garzarelli, chief interest-rate strategist, altered his monetary policy forecast to include a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) in its “QE3 most likely scenario.” support gold price.

“The central bank has indicated that its current economic forecasts warrant policy rates remaining close to zero for at least another two years and that it stands ready to expand its balance sheet further if needed,” Goldman’s Garzarelli wrote. “We have built a third round of long-term asset purchases (‘QE3’) into our baseline, although that is, of course, contingent on sub-trend growth in the near term.”

While Goldman Sachs did not discuss the implications of QE3 for the gold price in the report, history suggests it would be quite favorable for the price of gold. Richard Russell, a long-time gold bull and author of Dow Theory Letters, presented his case for higher gold prices.

“When chaos reigns, people look for certainty,” Russell wrote in a recent letter. “When all is lost, only one item stands supreme and has been supreme for thousands of years. That item is gold…The anti-gold element is afraid of gold hitting the even number of $2,000, thus we see gold, day after day, fluctuating in the $1,500 to $1,700 area, but never breaking out to $1,900, or God forbid – $2,000.”

Russell went on to say that “At $2,000, the next objective would be $2,500, and from there $5,000, and from $5,000 – $10,000. As gold marches higher, it’s playing the death knell for fiat money. And every central banker knows it.”


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