2011-12-24

Gold will be forming a bottom in the coming months

The gold price oscillated above the $1,600 per ounce level Friday morning. At $1,608 per ounce, the price of gold is lower by $138 in December, a decline of 7.9%. Strength the U.S. dollar has pressured gold and investments tied to the gold price over the course of the month. Nevertheless, the yellow metal remains higher by 13% thus far in 2011 and is on pace to post its eleventh consecutive year of gains.

Looking ahead for the price of gold, VTB Capital analyst Andrey Kryuchenkov contended on Thursday that “We still see easing momentum for gold at the end of the month with small chance of physical buyers or longer-term investors returning before [the first quarter of 2012]. In the next few sessions, we expect to see some more volatility in thin pre-holiday trading.”

In a note to clients, the VTB Capital also wrote that “We still see little chance for gains here until year end. Gold will stall below short-term resistance at $1,620, in our view. The market failed to breach it yesterday, also having tested more resistance at $1,640 (earlier in the week).”

Eugen Weinberg, an analyst at Commerzbank, offered a similarly cautious near-term outlook on the gold price. ”People are not looking at gold as a safe haven, and that is one of the reasons for this lacklustre performance. I wouldn’t be surprised to see further weakness in gold prices going forward.”

Over the longer-term, however, Weinberg presented his more bullish stance on the price of gold. ”The price increase before was also due to speculative interest, and that seems to be abating, which I find healthy. Gold will be forming a bottom in the coming months, and due to the higher risks ahead, I think prices are likely to increase.”

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