2012-07-12

The dollar is the major influence on the price of gold at the moment

The gold price held firm near $1,575 per ounce on Wednesday amid modest weakness in the U.S. dollar.  Following yesterday’s 1.2% sell-off, the price of gold recouped a small portion of its losses ahead of the release of this afternoon’s Fed minutes.  The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), the world’s largest gold ETF and a proxy for the gold price, advanced $1.15, or 0.8%, to $153.30 per share in morning trading.

With the Fed minutes approaching, Commerzbank analyst Daniel Briesemann wrote in a report to clients that the chance of getting a considerably more negative economic outlook from the Federal Reserve was relatively small, and that the gold price is unlikely to have a strong reaction to the news this afternoon.

“The dollar is the major influence on the price of gold at the moment, it is the reason gold is up today,” Briesemann added.  “I don’t think the FOMC minutes will have an effect at all. The Fed have already stated their fears about the global economy and at the last FOMC meeting, they already highlighted (that).”

Looking ahead, Briesemann stated that “We expect higher gold prices towards the end of year, but in the shorter term, and because gold is not behaving like a safe-haven and is trading more in line with risk assets like cyclical commodities, I see more risk to the downside at the moment.”

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