2012-09-29

A move above $1,788 in gold would confirm a base at $1,737 and open the $1,803 range highs

The gold price turned modestly lower on Friday, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and weakness in the broader commodities complex.  The spot price of gold fell from an overnight high of $1,785.73 per ounce to as low as $1,772.41 this morning, while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose 0.2% to 79.735.  The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), the world’s most liquid gold price proxy, droped $0.48, or 0.3%, to $171.86 per share.

Today’s weakness in the gold price was tempered, however, by two worse than expected reports on the U.S. economy.  Following yesterday’s disappointing data on GDP, Durable Goods, and Pending Home Sales, this morning the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment both came in below the consensus estimate among economists.
Despite today’s slight decline, the gold price remained up by 4.7% on a month-to-date basis.  Furthermore, as the third quarter of 2012 draws to a close, the yellow metal has climbed 10.8% and on pace for its best such stretch since the second quarter of 2010.

However, since reaching a seven-month high of $1,790 last week, the price of gold has oscillated between gains and losses as investors’ focus has shifted from the Federal Reserve and QE3 back to the European sovereign debt crisis.

Looking ahead, Mitsui Precious Metals analyst David Jollie commented that “The most obvious catalyst for gold to break higher this year is going to be good news out of Europe.  Anything that is dollar negative is going to help gold move to fresh highs for the year.”

Jollie added that “To see resistance at the previous highs is not a major surprise.  I think the market is still viewing this as period of consolidation, and not the end of a move.”

Analysts at Barclays Capital noted that “A move above $1,788 in gold would confirm a base at $1,737 and open the $1,803 range highs.”  The firm went on to say that “We are bullish and look for a break above there to open the $1,921 (all-time) highs.”

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