2009-06-04

China Hold Hundreds of Billions of DollarsIn US Government Debt Make Gold Price Drop Strong



Gold prices try to broken USD 1,000 unsuccessfully so it will enter a price correction and now the support line will be at USD 960.

That is a critical issue for countries such as China that hold hundreds of billions of dollars in US government debt. If the United States is unable to control its long-term deficits, it could weaken the dollar and drive up inflation, hurting the value of those dollar-denominated assets. US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, on his first visit to China as Treasury chief this week, announce sought to reassure Beijing that the United States was committed to living within its means.

Gold prices were up this morning, but when that announcement hit the market, the US Dollar (still the national currency, but probably not for long) rose nearly 100 basis points to 79.459 (moments ago) due to the sources in China, Japan, India and South Korea told Reuters central banks in those countries, which together control about half of the world's foreign exchange reserves, would keep buying US government debt even if the United States' sovereign credit rating were cut.

Gold will need 2-3 days to digest this blow, but were so strong leading up to this that it's hard to imagine they will enter a long correction. The gold price needs to protect USD960, USD941.50 at least. Remember also that the gold price was nearing big resistance at USD1,000 so a correction was likely to happen.

Whether this will turn into a longer dollar rally and longer metals correction, we will see.

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