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Showing posts from June, 2012

For the moment people want liquidity so they are selling gold

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The gold price turned lower on Thursday, weighed down by a rebound in the U.S. dollar and weakness in the broader financial markets.  The spot price of gold fell by as much as $24.14, or 1.5%, to $1,550.94 per ounce this morning before consolidating near $1,553 per ounce. In Europe, investors grew increasingly disappointed with the potential for meaningful reforms from the two-day European Union (EU) summit that began on Thursday.  These concerns were exacerbated by recent comments from German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who spoke out against proposals by several euro zone nations for the euro zone to assume greater financial responsibility for individual countries’ debts. As for the gold price, “There’s no semblance of a safe-haven at the moment,” according to Societe Generale analyst Robin Bhar.  ”For the moment people want liquidity so they are selling gold,” he added. However, Bhar asserted that “As the price goes lower that bid does come back as you maybe get some

Europe and Asia added further to their gold reserves in May

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Gold prices held firm near $1,575 per ounce Wednesday morning despite two better than expected reports on different sectors of the U.S. economy.  The spot price of gold fell to as low as $1,563.42 in overnight trading, but bounced back toward unchanged as U.S. equity markets opened.  The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), the world’s largest gold ETF and a proxy for the gold price, inched higher by $0.17 to $152.79 per share this morning. Several countries in Europe and Asia added further to their gold reserves in May, according to the latest data released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The largest increase came from Russia, which purchased 15.5 tons last month to bring its total gold holdings to 911.3 tons. This also raised the portion of gold in Russia’s total reserves to 9.1%, according to the World Gold Council. Turkey added the second-most amount of gold in May, 5.7 tons, raising its total to 245.0 tons.  Ukraine purchased 2.1 tons – bringing its total to 32.7

11 reasons why gold prices are likely to rebound in the second half of 2012

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On a year-to-date basis, the gold price remains in positive territory by only 0.6% – and more than 12% below its high this year of $1,792.30, reached on February 29th.  However, going forward there are many reasons to remain optimistic, according to analysts at Nomura. In a recent report, Nomura laid out the following 11 reasons why gold prices are likely to rebound in the second half of 2012. Third quarter is a seasonally strong quarter for Indian demand. Nomura expects Indian rupee to stabalise in the short term and grow stronger over the next two years, which will aid in pick-up of gold demand. Despite the erosion of Indian volume (19 per cent drop in jewellery and 46 per cent lower in investment), gold prices have held on admirably. Any pick up in Indian demand can take the prices higher. Exceptionally strong demand from China will support strong gold prices. Scrap gold supply has slowed down. New mine capacity addition will not be sufficient to meet the spike in

Gold Price in “Wait-and-See” Mode as EU Summit Nears

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The gold price held steady near $1,573 per ounce on Monday despite further strength in the U.S. dollar and broad-based weakness in the commodities complex.  The price of gold held in a tight range between $1,567 and $1,578 in overnight trading while the U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.4% to 82.550.  The yellow metal is coming off of a 3.3% decline last week, which was driven in large part by the lack of a QE3 announcement at the most recent Federal Reserve meeting. Ongoing sovereign debt concerns in Europe helped push equity markets across the globe well into the red on Monday.  Asian and European markets posted declines ranging from 0.5% in Hong Kong to as much as 2.4% in France.  In the U.S., the S&P 500 Index retreated by 1.6% to 1,313.20.  Investor risk aversion also turned sharply higher, as the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) climbed 13.1% to 20.48. Investors are also awaiting the outcome from the upcoming European Summit, scheduled for this Thursday and Friday.  The

If the gold price doesn't hold $1,525, they will drop much further, as low as $1,450

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The gold price bounced last week after plunging a horrifying 3.4%. Closed $1,571.20 on Friday, up $6.70, but that sayeth little. Long and short is this: If the gold price doesn't hold $1,525 and silver 2615c, they will drop much further, as low as $1,450 and 2250c. You will know as they unfold this week, because if they intend to continue falling, Monday and Tuesday will be painful days. On the other hand, physical demand at these prices is huge. For silver and gold to fall much further, those buyers would have to disappear. However, if metals do fall, expect even more buyers to crawl out of their hiding places. Nothing significant has changed for those who follow the primary trend.Gold are correcting. So what? They've been correcting since April 2011 and August 2011. Corrections can last up to 18 months. Stop panicking. Has the Federal Reserve stopped inflating? The rest of the world's central banks? Has common sense, honesty, and financial probity suddenly sei

Gold price tumbled $24.45, or 1.5%, to $1,582.77 per ounce

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The gold price tumbled $24.45, or 1.5%, to $1,582.77 per ounce on Thursday in the aftermath of yesterday’s Fed meeting.  There, the Ben Bernanke-led central bank decided not to launch a third round of quantitative easing (QE3), which provided a headwind for the yellow metal and assets linked to the price of gold .  A stronger U.S. dollar also put pressure on the gold price this morning, as the greenback rose 0.6% against a composite of foreign currencies. As for the gold price, Saxo Bank vice president Ole Hansen wrote in a note to clients that “Currently we’re seeing a bit of follow-through from disappointed investors, but believe we should be finding support pretty soon… Overall I think the market is not ready to let go of gold, as it still looks like one of the better bets should the economic outlook continue to deteriorate.” Jan Hatzius, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs, also noted that the FOMC statement was more dovish than at the prior meeting.  The Fed

Gold Price Slides, Fed to Extend “Twist” but No QE3!

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The gold price fell $22.55, or 1.4%, to $1,597.55 per ounce on Wednesday ahead of the decision from today’s Fed meeting.  The price of gold moved steadily lower in overnight trading, despite a lack of strength in the U.S. dollar, as it held near unchanged against a basket of foreign currencies. The gold price suffered this morning from a growing view among market investors and economists that Ben Bernanke and his fellow central bankers will announce additional easing measures, but will not expand the Fed’s balance sheet via a third round of quantitative easing (QE3). Josh Feinman, global chief economist for DB Advisors, the asset management unit of Deutsche Bank AG, stated that “Extending Operation Twist is the path of least resistance.  It would be an extension of something we have in place, so it would be more seamless, and it doesn’t complicate exit strategies as much because it’s not expanding the balance sheet.” PNC Financial Services Group’s chief economist,

Just maybe there is some fresh money coming in

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Gold prices continued to oscillate between gains and losses on Tuesday despite weakness in the U.S. dollar and a broad-based rally in equities and commodities.  The spot price of gold rose to $1,634.28 in overnight trading, but later slid back toward unchanged at $1,626.74 per ounce.  Since reaching a six-week high of $1,642.35 on June 6, the gold price has remained in consolidation mode as investors await the outcome of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Simon Weeks, a director of precious metals sales at ScotiaMocatta, wrote in a note to clients this morning that “Gold has hardly been leading from the front as it’s been seen as a source of cash rather than a currency in its own right – but there are some signs that with ETF inventories on the rise again…that maybe, just maybe there is some fresh money coming in.” The gold price did receive a bit of support from another disappointing U.S. economic report this morning.  The Commerce Department released Housing Sta

The rebound in the U.S. dollar and the euro’s weakness helped support the gold price

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The gold price dipped $6.62, or 0.4%, to $1,620.13 per ounce Monday morning after this weekend’s Greek election that saw the pro-European bailout New Democracy party win.  The spot price of gold slid to as low as $1,610.83 in overnight trading, but subsequently pared its losses as risk aversion increased as financial markets became less enthusiastic over the implications of the election results.  The euro currency initially climbed to 1.2759 against the U.S. dollar on Sunday evening, but later tumbled below the 1.26 level. The rebound in the U.S. dollar and the euro’s weakness helped support the gold price, and put pressure on the broader financial markets.  Investors shifted their concerns from Greece to Spain on Monday, as the yield on Spanish ten-year bonds jumped to a euro-area high above 7.2%.  European equity markets opened sharply higher but ended up surrendering the majority of their gains as trading progressed. Looking ahead for the gold price, while Europea

The gold price held firm near $1,625 per ounce last week after several worse than expected U.S. economic reports

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The gold price held firm near $1,625 per ounce last week after several worse than expected U.S. economic reports.  last week the price of gold advanced modestly after reports surfaced that the world’s leading central banks were prepared to take coordinated action if necessary to stabilize financial markets in the aftermath of this weekend’s Greek elections. Commenting on the outlook for the gold price, VTB Capital analyst Andrey Kryuchenkov wrote in a note to clients that “Not many will dare take on fresh longs ahead of the weekend given gold’s peculiar behavior recently, when it swings back and forth with or against risk sentiment…We should stall near this week’s highs below 1630, with all attention on Greece, and then the G20 summit next week.” Gold shares also hugged the flatline in conjunction with the price of gold, as the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) dipped $0.02 to $46.91 per share.  The large-cap gold producers were mixed in morning trading, with Randg

Gold price advanced - after the latest set of weak U.S. economic data

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The gold price advanced $8.27, or 0.5%, to $1,619.44 per ounce on Wednesday after the latest set of weak U.S. economic data. The price of gold stabilized near $1,610 in overnight trading, but climbed at as high as $1,625.38 this morning as the worrisome economic reports put pressure on the U.S. dollar. The greenback dipped 0.3% against a composite of the world’s leading currencies, while the euro rose 0.3% to 1.2554 against the dollar. The worrisome data is likely to provide the Federal Reserve with additional evidence that the economy is meaningfully slowing.  Furthermore, it could give the Fed cover for further monetary policy easing measures.  Following the reports, Jan Hatzius – chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs – reiterated his call for the Ben Bernanke-led central bank to announce a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) at next week’s FOMC meeting. Looking ahead for the gold price, analysts at Commerzbank wrote in a note to clients that “Only a break above

Gold is going up, down or sideways dependent on what is going on in the euro/dollar rate

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The gold price recovered from earlier losses on Tuesday to reclaim the $1,600 per ounce level despite further strength in the U.S. dollar.  The spot price of gold slid to as low as $1,587.94 in overnight trading, but bounced back to as high as $1,611.48 this morning.  Yesterday the gold price also rebounded from earlier losses to $1,600 as risk aversion increased in the broader financial markets.  With today’s advance, the price of gold extended its gain this month to 3.1%. In currencies, the euro continued to decline on the back of ongoing sovereign debt concerns, particularly in Spain.  Europe’s common currency dropped 0.3% to 1.2454 against the U.S. dollar this morning as investors began to digest the implications of the recent €100 billion Spanish bailout. Looking ahead, the euro crisis is likely to remain a primary catalyst for the broader markets as well as the price of gold.  In addition, the U.S. economic calendar picks up over the next three days, prior to n

In the end, intensive money printing will be the order of the day

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“The guardians and architects of the European Monetary Union have shown a complete lack of understanding of the fix they have created for themselves, as they are trapped inside a structure that absolutely cannot work under its current setup. However, they refuse either to admit defeat or to ensure victory. As a result, the world continues to be caught in a no-man’s land where Europe is full of potential live financial hand grenades, and yet the ECB is hesitant to use the preferred method for disarming them, i.e., the printing press.” That is Bill Fleckenstein’s take on the current state of the European sovereign debt ciris.  In his latest weekly column for MSN Money , Fleckenstein argued that euro zone officials remain far behind their counterparts in the U.S., U.K., and Japan with regard to their policy response to the financial crisis. “Obviously, variations of this scenario have been at the root of the European financial psychodrama for going on two years now,” he

Gold price turned sharply lower after Bernanke Offers No QE3 Signals

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The gold price turned sharply lower Thursday morning after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke did not hint at further monetary stimulus in prepared remarks to the United States Congress.  In overnight trading, the spot price of gold held firm near $1,630 per ounce after China’s central bank unexpectedly lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in an attempt to support its slowing economy.  However, after the release of Bernanke’s testimony, the gold price fell $14.31, or 0.9%, to $1,605.49 per ounce. n his first public comments since the post-FOMC press conference on April 25, Ben Bernanke discussed the escalating headwinds facing the U.S. economy before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress.  Although economic growth “has continued at a moderate rate so far this year,” the Fed Chairman noted that “some of the factors that have restrained the recovery persist.” “Notably, households and businesses still appear quite cautious about the economy,” Be

Gold prices may be supported by China’s growing appetite for bullion

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The gold price stabilized near $1,617 per ounce Tuesday morning despite strength in the U.S. dollar and a better than expected U.S. economic report. Gold prices held in a tight range in overnight trading – between $1,613 and $1,624 – as the yellow metal continued to consolidate following last week’s rebound.  The price of gold subsequently showed a muted reaction to the ISM Services report for May, which at 53.7 came in modestly above the 53.4 consensus estimate among economists. With its renewed strength, the gold price appears to have “regained its safe haven status,” according to analysts at Commerzbank.  In a report to clients, the firm wrote that “Gold has now successfully bounced off the major 1,532.20/1,522.48 support zone.  A minor retracement back to the 1,600 level is now on the cards but the next lower significant 1,532.20/1,522.48 support area should not be retested any time soon, though.” Commerzbank went on to say that “We expect the precious metal to

Gold Moved Out of Its “Correction” Phase?

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With gold rebounding considerably over the past week and moving out of the $1,520-$1,590 trading range it had occupied for the past month, several market pundits and analysts see brighter days ahead now for the yellow metal. Richard Russell – author of Dow Theory Letters , the world’s longest-running daily investment letter, and one of the more prominent long-time gold bulls – wrote the following in his latest letter: “I think it (gold) has moved into a buying range. I no longer see a BIG correction ahead for gold. As the euro and other junk fiat currencies weaken, there will be more and more buyers of gold — including confused central banks. Retail sentiment for gold is now low, which is bullish for the metal. I’ve been sitting with all my gold and paper gold. I’ve been determined that I’m not going to be ‘knocked’ out of gold by sentiment or rumors. Trade it and you trade it away. I still think gold will be the last man standing.”

Fed skittering to the money pumps to keep the ship from sinking

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The gold price range closing last week stretched from $1,546.08 to $1,629.30. It closed at $1,629.30, worth $57.90 more than when it went to bed last Thursday. That leaves a beautiful, strong, enchanting chart behind, a bottom with a mighty surge through the downtrend line from the March high at $1,792.70 and just beneath the $1,625.36 fifty day moving average. Meanwhile the Euro-zone continues to crumble. Right on time about the end of year's first half (as expected) bad unemployment news turned up to rack an already panicked stock market which had been floating on fumes, hopes, & Fed propaganda. New jobs in May grew by 69,000, lowest in year and far short of the 158,000 economists expected. Euro zone is forcing another austerity treaty on the weaker members. Too little, too late. Bad unemployment data in the face of an upcoming election will send the Fed skittering to the money pumps to keep the ship from sinking. Markets insightfully grasped that inevitab

Disappointing non-farm payrolls data - Gold price back to 1,600 Level

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The gold price surged higher Friday morning, by $49.77, or 3.2%, to $1,612.48 per ounce following a very disappointing report on the U.S. labor market.  The spot price of gold hovered near $1,550 in overnight trading, but turned sharply upwards following the worse than expected non-farm payrolls report for May. The May employment report showed that the U.S. economy added only 69,000 jobs, far below the 150,000 consensus estimate among economists and even less than the lowest forecast of 75,000.  Furthermore, the April non-farm payrolls figure was revised downward from 115,000 to 77,000 while the March data was cut from 154,000 to 143,000.  As for the unemployment rate, it climbed from 8.1% to 8.2%. Commenting on the jobs data and the implications for the gold price, Saxo Bank vice president Ole Hansen stated that “(The report was) very poor and confirmed the midcycle slowdown in the United States.  Whether it will be enough to change the mind of the Fed towards addi

Global liquidity and real interest rates still indicates a higher gold price going forward

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The gold price oscillated between gains and losses Thursday morning after several key U.S. economic reports were released.  The spot price of gold initially jumped to as high as $1,574.38 per ounce following the data, but subsequently retreated to $1,558.19 as the U.S. dollar recouped its earlier losses against a composite of foreign currencies.  With today’s fractional drop, the gold price is now down by 6.5% in May and on pace for its fourth consecutive monthly decline for the first time since August of 1999. The gold price initially rallied after two disappointing reports on the U.S. labor market, but was later dragged down by widespread weakness in the broader markets and U.S. dollar strength.  The ADP Employment report showed job additions of 133,000, below the 150,000 consensus estimate among economists.  Weekly jobless claims also came in above the 370,000 level economists were expecting, at 383,000.  In addition, first quarter GDP growth was revised lower to 1