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Showing posts from July, 2012

Seriously considering implementing a third round of quantitative easing (QE3)

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The gold price oscillated between gains and losses on Monday as financial markets consolidated following their recent substantial risk-on rally. Gold prices traded near unchanged at $1,624 per ounce this morning while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose 0.2% to 82.858 against a basket of foreign currencies.  The euro currency dipped 0.5% to 1.2258 against the greenback, thereby relinquishing a portion of its recent advance. Last week the gold price climbed 2.5% to a multi-month high above $1,630 per ounce – its best such stretch since a 3.1% jump from May 29 through June 1 – amid escalating prospects for further monetary easing across the globe.  In doing so, the spot price of gold extended its gains for July to 1.3% and to 3.6% in 2012. Looking ahead to this week, there is a particularly heavy schedule of items likely to impact the price of gold and the broader financial markets.  The Federal Reserve will hold its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Tuesda

The gold price recaptured the $1,600 per ounce level

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The gold price recaptured the $1,600 per ounce level on Wednesday amid talk of further monetary easing in both the United States and Europe.  The spot price of  gold climbed as much as $23.34, or 1.5%, to $1,606.32 earlier this morning, fueled in part by weakness in the U.S. dollar.  The greenback fell 0.3% against a basket of foreign currencies, while the euro advanced 0.5% to 1.2134 against the dollar.  The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), a proxy for the gold price and the world’s largest gold exchange-traded product, jumped $1.62 to $155.14 per share. Yesterday afternoon the gold price was buoyed by reports that the Federal Reserve is “moving closer” to implementing further monetary stimulus to support the struggling U.S. economy.  The Fed is more seriously considering launching a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) – whose absence at last month’s Fed meeting helped send the price of gold to near multi-month lows.  However, in recent weeks, Chairman Ben Bernanke and h

Markets sold off really heavily yesterday, and gold held up pretty well against that

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The gold price continued to consolidate near the $1,575 per ounce level on Tuesday amid modest strength in the U.S. dollar. Gold prices ranged between $1,571 and $1,584 in overnight trading, an area they have now occupied for several weeks.  The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), the world’s most liquid gold price proxy, inched higher by $0.05 to $153.08 per share this morning. As for the gold price, Macquarie analyst Hayden Atkins wrote in a note to clients that “Markets sold off really heavily yesterday, and gold held up pretty well against that. It is maybe the one thing that has really stayed solid against some pretty solid headwinds elsewhere…People are just keeping the bid where it is, still waiting on things like quantitative easing.” Looking ahead for the price of gold, sovereign debt-related news is likely to remain a critical catalyst for the yellow metal.  In the U.S., the economic calendar is relatively light this week but does include a few significant items.  Week

The great danger for the gold price is the stronger dollar

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The gold price turned lower on Monday as a further escalation of European sovereign debt fears fueled widespread selling across financial markets.  The price of gold fell to as low as $1,562.08 per ounce earlier this morning, but pared its losses to trade down by $12.89, or 0.8%, at $1,571.59.  In doing so, the gold price considerably outperformed other commodities and U.S. dollar-denominated asset classes. Equity markets across Asia and Europe exhibited a sea of red as well on Monday as speculation grew that Spain may need a more comprehensive bailout after a second region, Murcia, revealed that it needs additional financial assistance.  This followed reports last week that another region, Valencia, was also in dire financial straits. “The fear now is that Valencia’s aid request is more than likely to open the floodgates for similar requests from the other 17 heavily indebted Spanish regions,” CMC Markets wrote in a note to clients.  “Already speculation is increa

QE3 Unlikely to Arrive Until Early 2013

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The gold price slipped $5.64, or 0.4%, to $1,576.46 per ounce on Wednesday as investors digested the second day of Congressional testimony by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.  The spot price of gold fell to $1,567.38 earlier this morning, but recouped the majority of its losses as the U.S. dollar pared its gains against a basket of foreign currencies.  Nonetheless, the gold price remains near the lower end of the trading range it has occupied since early May. George Gero, precious metals strategist at RBC Wealth Management, noted that he was not expecting Bernanke to discuss QE3 because of the nature of the Congressional hearings.  “I don’t think that this is the platform when he will usually say something that is going to be unusual or dynamic.  Basically he’s testifying, which means he’s answering questions.” Looking ahead, several strategists expect the price of gold to remain range-bound.  Analysts at Marex Spectron wrote in a report to clients that “No doubt, the go

The gold price turned lower on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar rallied following the release of Ben Bernanke’s semi-annual testimony to Congress

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The gold price turned lower on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar rallied following the release of Ben Bernanke’s semi-annual testimony to Congress.  The price of gold rose to an overnight high of $1,598.73 per ounce, but later surrendered its gains, falling as much as $11.02, or 0.7%, to $1,578.89 in morning trading.  The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) climbed 0.3% to 83.48 after the markets interpreted the Fed Chairman’s remarks as less dovish than expected. In his first public remarks since last month’s FOMC meeting, Bernanke acknowledged that “economic activity appears to have decelerated somewhat” in recent months.  He also cited the European sovereign debt crisis and the “U.S. fiscal situation” as two primary risk factors for the U.S. economy. As for monetary policy, Bernanke only discussed the Fed’s decision last month to extend Operation Twist and reiterate his pledge to keep the Fed Funds rate near zero through late 2014.  There was no mention of a potential new asset p

“The next rally in gold, when the Fed finally acts, is going to be huge”

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“Gold bulls feel tortured after nine months of correction,” is how Bill Fleckenstein described the current mindset of many gold investors. In his most recent weekly column for MSN Money , Fleckenstein provided his view on the latest developments in the gold market and his outlook going forward. “Turning to the gold market, obviously it has been under pressure, too,” Fleckenstein noted. “I’m sure many folks were disappointed Thursday to see…combined with all the other stimulus we’ve seen, not only  not make gold rally but see it decline. Unfortunately, that is just where we are right now. The minute ‘good news’ for gold doesn’t work, it turns into bad news, because it didn’t cause the market to rally.” He went on to say that “One of the problems the gold market has had is that demand from India has been subdued. The finance minister there has been trying to clamp down on gold purchases, and of course India’s currency has been quite weak. That minister has now resigne

The gold price also received a lift from the latest disappointing report on the U.S. economy

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The gold price jumped back toward $1,600 per ounce on Friday amid considerable weakness in the U.S. dollar and a broad-based rally on Wall Street.  The spot price of gold climbed as much as $24.01, or 1.5%, to $1,596.43 per ounce in morning trading while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) slid 0.5% to 83.405.  The DXY, which has exhibited substantial strength in recent months, yesterday reached its highest level since July 2010.  Today’s sell-off, however, provided a noticeable tailwind for not just the gold price, but also the entire commodities complex. Although today’s rise in the price of gold marked its best day thus far in July, the yellow metal remains well within the $1,550-$1,630 range that it has occupied for the past several months.  Macquarie analyst Hayden Atkins wrote in a note to clients that “Gold’s drifting with the tide.  It’s still in this range, where no-one has a lot of conviction over whether it should do one thing or another. We may get that in the ne

Gold Price Slips as QE3 Outlook Dims

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Gold prices fell $18.91, or 1.2%, to $1,557.98 per ounce on Thursday in the aftermath of yesterday’s Fed minutes and a better than expected U.S. economic report this morning.  The spot price of gold was also pressured by further strength in the U.S. Dollar Index, which climbed to 83.824 – its highest level since July 2010.  The dollar’s rally weighed on not just the gold price, but the broader commodity and equity markets as well. Wednesday’s release of the latest Fed minutes – a recap of the June FOMC meeting – revealed that while the U.S. central bank would consider launching a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) if the U.S. economy continued to worsen, the Federal Reserve does does not appear likely to launch such a program in the near term. Nic Brown, head commodities analyst at Natixis, wrote in a note to clients that “The market can pretend that QE3 isn’t important, but it is one of the fundamental factors that is supporting gold prices.  It is a case th

The dollar is the major influence on the price of gold at the moment

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The gold price held firm near $1,575 per ounce on Wednesday amid modest weakness in the U.S. dollar.  Following yesterday’s 1.2% sell-off, the price of gold recouped a small portion of its losses ahead of the release of this afternoon’s Fed minutes.  The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), the world’s largest gold ETF and a proxy for the gold price, advanced $1.15, or 0.8%, to $153.30 per share in morning trading. With the Fed minutes approaching, Commerzbank analyst Daniel Briesemann wrote in a report to clients that the chance of getting a considerably more negative economic outlook from the Federal Reserve was relatively small, and that the gold price is unlikely to have a strong reaction to the news this afternoon. “The dollar is the major influence on the price of gold at the moment, it is the reason gold is up today,” Briesemann added.  “I don’t think the FOMC minutes will have an effect at all. The Fed have already stated their fears about the global economy and at the la

The price of gold stabilized alongside the U.S. Dollar Index

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The gold price held steady near $1,585 per ounce on Monday as the yellow metal consolidated following last week’s 0.9% decline.  The price of gold stabilized alongside the U.S. Dollar Index this morning, which inched lower by 0.1% to 83.292.  In recent weeks, gold prices have fallen back toward the midpoint of the $1,540-$1,620 trading range that they have occupied since early May. While the United States’ central bank may not be implementing further easing measures in the near future, several others around the world announced additional monetary stimulus programs last week.  This past Thursday, the Peoples’ Bank of China (PBOC) unexpectedly cut interest rates, the Bank of England expanded its quantitative easing program by 50 billion pounds, and the European Central Bank (ECB) reduced its benchmark interest rate to a new record-low of 0.75%. Commenting on the outlook for gold prices and the global economy, Daniel Smith – an analyst with Standard Chartered – stated t

Gold price dropped $19.05, or 1.2%, to $1,586.07 per ounce on Friday following the latest U.S. jobs report

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The gold price dropped $19.05, or 1.2%, to $1,586.07 per ounce on Friday following the latest U.S. jobs report.  The spot price of gold initially climbed to $1,609.48 after the June non-farm payrolls data, but quickly reversed course as strength in the U.S. dollar put pressure on the broader commodities complex.  With this morning’s gold price weakness, the yellow metal is now on pace for a weekly decline of 0.8%. The U.S. Labor Department announced on Friday that payrolls increased by 80,000 in June, below the 100,000 consensus estimate among economists.  The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 8.2%, which was in-line with expectations.  Private sector payrolls, which exclude government workers, rose by just 84,000 – the smallest amount in ten months. While the gold price generally reacts favorably to disappointing economic data, in recent months the yellow metal has traded more like a commodity than a currency.  Furthermore, it has displayed an increased negativ

Do you have a short term price target?

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“My partner Eric Sprott often says, the US dollar is the best looking horse in the glue factory.  If the US dollar is the world’s strongest currency, that’s the best endorsement for gold that I can think of.” The above quote was from John Embry, Chief Investment Strategist of Sprott Asset Management and a long-time gold bull. Embry discussed his outlook for precious metals and the global economy in an interview with Hera Research Newsletter (HRN), published this morning by Minyanville.com. Highlights from the interview included: John Embry: Gold stocks represent a tremendous value in relation to the price of gold and to the fundamentals of the sector.  There has been tremendous shorting activity by hedge funds and, as a result, dedicated gold funds have experienced redemptions.  Retail investors, who are natural buyers of these stocks, have been annihilated by the price action.  This has created one of the finest opportunities, if not the finest opportuni

Bullion extended Friday’s gains on a technical breach of $1,600

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The gold price jumped $19.34, or 1.2%, to $1,618.40 per ounce on Tuesday as the prospects for further monetary easing across the globe gained steam. Gold price advanced alongside the broader commodity markets, which were buoyed in part by slight weakness in the U.S. dollar.  The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), a proxy for the price of gold and the world’s largest precious metals ETF, rose $2.00, or 1.3%, to $157.09 per share. As for the gold price, “Bullion extended Friday’s gains on a technical breach of $1,600,” according to VTB Capital analyst Andrey Kryuchenkov. “Just as before, gold continues to track the broader market, with sentiment still upbeat in the wake of the euro zone summit in Brussels at the end of last week.” Kryuchenkov went on to say that “Peripheral bond yields in the euro zone remain subdued from last week’s highs, while many are expecting a rate cut by the ECB (of 25 basis points) on Thursday.” Commerzbank analyst Eugen Weinberg noted in a report to c

Gold will remain a risk-on asset for the foreseeable future

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The gold price turned modestly lower on Monday amid strength in the U.S. dollar, as the yellow metal gave back a portion of last Friday’s $42 advance.  The price of gold held in a tight range between $1,590 and $1,600 per ounce in overnight trading, and was down by $6.84, or 0.4%, at $1,592.25 this morning Nikos Kavalis, an analyst at Royal Bank of Scotland, wrote in a recent note to clients that “We are staunch believers that gold will remain a risk-on asset for the foreseeable future.  So if we continue to see a more definitive policy response by authorities, gold will continue to benefit.” “Having said that … the investment bid will be essential for the price to move up,” Kavalis added. “That will be without a doubt linked to continued news flow. This morning we have had a setback across the sector, and gold has not been left out.”