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Showing posts from September, 2012

A move above $1,788 in gold would confirm a base at $1,737 and open the $1,803 range highs

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The gold price turned modestly lower on Friday, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and weakness in the broader commodities complex.  The spot price of gold fell from an overnight high of $1,785.73 per ounce to as low as $1,772.41 this morning, while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose 0.2% to 79.735.  The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), the world’s most liquid gold price proxy, droped $0.48, or 0.3%, to $171.86 per share. Today’s weakness in the gold price was tempered, however, by two worse than expected reports on the U.S. economy.  Following yesterday’s disappointing data on GDP, Durable Goods, and Pending Home Sales, this morning the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment both came in below the consensus estimate among economists. Despite today’s slight decline, the gold price remained up by 4.7% on a month-to-date basis.  Furthermore, as the third quarter of 2012 draws to a close, the yellow metal has climbed 10.8% and on pace for i

Euro will stay weak, the dollar will stay strong, and that’s going to cap the gold price

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The gold price bounced back on Thursday from yesterday’s sell-off alongside the broader financial markets.  On Wednesday the spot price of gold tumbled to a two-week low of $1,738.47 per ounce before paring its losses in afternoon trading.  This morning, the gold price climbed by $13.57, or 0.8%, to $1,765.17 per ounce. Today’s gold price rally was driven by a confluence of macroeconomic factors across the globe.  The yellow metal received a boost in overnight trading from speculation that the People’s Bank of China will soon announce additional monetary stimulus measures to help support the nation’s slowing economy.  In Europe, the Spanish government met to approve a 2013 austerity budget – which helped the euro currency rise 0.2% to 1.2901 against the U.S. dollar.  The greenback’s weakness in turn helped lift the price of gold. Across the Atlantic, several worse than expected economic reports affirmed the Federal Reserve’s view that the U.S. remains at risk of fa

Gold continued to head lower Wednesday morning following yesterday afternoon’s sell-off as the U.S. dollar advanced

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Gold continued to head lower Wednesday morning following yesterday afternoon’s sell-off as the U.S. dollar advanced further against a composite of the world’s most-traded currencies. Gold futures slid $15.70, or 0.9%, to $1,750.70 per ounce, their lowest level in two weeks. Silver futures fared better than the yellow metal, but still dropped by $0.16, or 0.5%, to $33.79 per ounce. Commenting on today’s gold price weakness, Saxo Bank vice president Ole Hansen stated that the decline ”Has been brewing all week following the return of dollar strength.  With activity fairly light, someone went looking for stops and found them below $1,755. With that support now removed, the true strength of the current rally is about to be tested.” “My feeling is that buyers will be lurking in the wings and this move was necessary to establish proper support following the run higher,” Hansen added. “With QE excitement disappearing fast, it is left to stand on its own feet and with the

Rebound in the U.S. Dollar

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The price of gold declined on Thursday amid weakness in the commodities complex and a stronger U.S. dollar.  After rising to near a seven-month high of $1,781.72 per ounce yesterday, the spot gold price fell by $12.32, or 0.7%, to $1,759.04 this morning.  The yellow metal’s sell-off was driven in part by a modest rise in risk aversion across financial markets and a rebound in the U.S. Dollar Index, which advanced 0.7% to 79.595. Analysts at Marex Spectron wrote in a note to clients that “The rise in gold and silver will be tempered by drops in the stock market and rises in the dollar, and if this continues then the upside is limited for the time being.”  However, the firm added that “support remains under the market and I still believe buying dips is the way forward in the longer term.” On Wednesday the gold price was unable to build on its recent gains despite the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) unexpected announcement of an expansion to its quantitative easing program.  Th

Bank of Japan (BOJ) became the latest central bank to join the money printing party

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The gold price held firm near its six-month high at $1,775 per ounce on Wednesday after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) became the latest central bank to join the money printing party that has taken hold across the globe.  The price of gold rose to an overnight high of $1,782 after the BOJ unexpectedly announced an expansion to its own quantitative easing program, but later pared its gains alongside the broader commodities complex. The recent strength in the gold price has been fueled by the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB), both of which have launched additional monetary stimulus measures to combat the risks of recession in their respective economies.  On Wednesday, the Bank of Japan announced plans to raise its own asset purchase program by 10 trillion yen (¥) – approximately $125 billion – bringing its total to ¥55 trillion. Governor Masaaki Shirakawa, head of the BOJ, noted that “Exports and output look weak, and a decline in oil prices is weighing on Ja

Gold price stabilized near $1,770 per ounce

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The gold price stabilized near $1,770 per ounce on Monday amid a relatively quiet start to the week.  The price of gold is riding a four-week winning streak in which it reached a seven-month high of $1,780.16 last Friday.  The recent gold price rally was driven in large part by the Federal Reserve’s decision to launch an open-ended third round of quantitative easing (QE3) and extend the time frame for its near-zero interest rate policy to 2015. Looking ahead, this week contains far fewer macroeconomic catalysts likely to have a significant impact on the gold price, especially relative to the past two weeks that included the Federal Reserve’s and European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy meetings.  However, the U.S. economic calendar contains a few noteworthy reports that could affect gold prices. Data on housing starts and existing home sales for August will be released on Wednesday morning.  Thursday’s schedule includes reports on weekly jobless claims, the Phi

QE3 will be at a pace of $40 billion per month until such time as the U.S. labor market “improves substantially.”

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The Federal Reserve delivered a particularly dovish statement at its FOMC meeting on Thursday, as it announced an open-ended third round of quantitative easing (QE3) and extended the timeframe for its near-zero interest rate policy through at least mid-2015. The size and structure of QE3 will be at a pace of $40 billion per month until such time as the U.S. labor market “improves substantially.”  Additionally, instead of purchasing U.S. Treasuries, this time Ben Bernanke and his fellow central bankers bill buy mortgage-backed securities. “The Committee is concerned that, without further policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions,” the Fed noted.  “Furthermore, strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook.” The Federal Reserve went on to say that “If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committe

The primary beneficiaries of a third round of quantitative easing (QE3)

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The primary beneficiaries of a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) by the Federal Reserve would be “money substitutes and Treasuries,” according to analysts at Citigroup. In a note to clients – which posted – Citigroup argued that the positive impact from QE3 on the broader financial markets would be significantly less than from the prior rounds of money printing. “There are several major differences between QE3 now and past QE,” the firm began. “The one that is least remarked on is that the world outside the US is much less attractive now than in March 2009 or August 2010 when previous QEs were announced. In earlier QEs, EM was much more attractive, having shrugged off the debt crisis, there was an attractive destination for the liquidity the Fed was injecting into the global economy. Now the term ‘global leadership’ is linked to the US with its 2% (plus or minus) growth rate, and pessimism over Chinese, Brazilian, Indian and other major EM economies. So the do

Gold in exchange-traded products (ETPs), increased this week to a record 72.49 million ounces

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The gold price bounced back on Tuesday after yesterday’s modest sell-off as the U.S. dollar retreated against a composite of the world’s leading currencies this morning.  The spot price of gold rose as much as $14.18, or 0.8%, to $1,740.28 per ounce while the U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.5% to 80.001.  The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), the most liquid gold price proxy in the equity markets, advanced $1.24, or 0.7%, to $168.53 per share. With the gold price surging higher in recent weeks, sentiment toward the yellow metal has risen as well.  According to Reuters, holdings of gold in exchange-traded products (ETPs), increased this week to a record 72.49 million ounces.  Furthermore, total holdings of gold have climbed by close to 3.5 million ounces on a year-to-date basis, of which 2.7 million ounces have moved into ETPs in just the past month. Commenting on the rise in gold holdings, Edel Tully – a precious metals strategist at UBS – stated that “With a good portion of gold’

Gold price rally has been driven mainly by hopes that central banks will implement QE3

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The price of gold fell slightly on Monday amid profit-taking following three straight weekly advances.  The spot gold price dipped $6.30, or 0.4%, to $1,730.80 per ounce in morning trading, after reaching a six-month high of $1,745.32 last Friday.  Today’s modest weakness in gold prices coincided with a small rise in the U.S. dollar, which had dropped to a four-month low last week against a basket of foreign currencies. Looking ahead, investors will soon find out if Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and the FOMC will announce QE3 at this Thursday’s Fed meeting.  Across the Atlantic, on Wednesday the German Federal Constitutional Court will rule on the viability of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) – the proposed permanent financial assistance program aimed at combating the euro zone sovereign debt crisis. Commenting on the outlook for the price of gold, Barclays Capital wrote in a report to clients that “Our economists now expect the Fed to ease further at this week’s

Gold price climbed above $1,700 per ounce after the European Central Bank (ECB) announced an unlimited bond-buying program

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The gold price climbed above $1,700 per ounce on Thursday as financial markets rallied after the European Central Bank (ECB) announced an unlimited bond-buying program.  The spot price of gold jumped as much as $22.66, or 1.3%, to $1,716.87 earlier this morning but later pared its gains.  With today’s rise, the gold price reached its best level since March 11th and extended its year-to-date advance to 9.8%. At his press conference following the ECB’s meeting, Draghi stated that the bond-buying program “will enable us to address severe distortions in government bond markets which originate from, in particular, unfounded fears on the part of investors of the reversibility of the euro.”  He added that “Under appropriate conditions, we will have a fully effective backstop to avoid destructive scenarios with potentially severe challenges for price stability in the euro area.” As for the implications on the gold price, Credit Suisse analyst Tom Kendall noted that “There

Gold can react sharply to any prospect of more QE in the United States

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The gold price stabilized near $1,695 per ounce on Wednesday as financial markets remained in consolidation mode ahead of tomorrow’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting.  The price of gold held in a tight range between $1,689 and $1,697 in overnight trading after briefly surpassing the $1,700 level yesterday.  The U.S. Dollar Index dipped 0.1% to 81.257 this morning, while the euro rose 0.2% to 1.2598 against the greenback. The gold price held firm this morning after a worse than expected report on economic activity in the euro zone.  A survey of purchasing managers fell from 47.9 in July to 47.2 in August – slightly below the 47.5 level economists were expecting and well under the 50 level that separates expansion from contraction.  The disappointing data underscored the headwinds that the euro zone continues to face as it struggles to combat the sovereign debt crisis. The price of gold is likely to “challenge $1,800/oz before year-end,” according to metals consulta

Bernanke “Laying the Groundwork” for More Easing, Says El-Erian

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Gold prices rebounded from an initial sell-off despite the fact that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke failed to signal that a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) is forthcoming at his speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.  The spot gold price slid from near $1,665 to as low as $1,648.39 per ounce following the release of Bernanke’s prepared remarks, but soon after surged toward $1,680 as the U.S. dollar remained lower by 0.7% against a composite of foreign currencies. Immediately after the Federal Reserve published Bernanke’s Jackson Hole speech on its website, financial markets moved into risk-off mode based in large part on the absence of any QE3 mention.  Gold prices declined alongside equities and cyclical commodities, while the U.S. dollar pared its losses. With his speech this morning in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Ben Bernanke has prepared the markets for additional quantitative easing – according to PIMCO CEO Mohamed El-Erian. In an interview with CNBC f

QE3 may be right around the corner

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Gold prices rebounded from an initial sell-off despite the fact that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke failed to signal that a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) is forthcoming at his speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.  The spot gold price slid from near $1,665 to as low as $1,648.39 per ounce following the release of Bernanke’s prepared remarks, but soon after surged toward $1,680 as the U.S. dollar remained lower by 0.7% against a composite of foreign currencies. Immediately after the Federal Reserve published Bernanke’s Jackson Hole speech on its website, financial markets moved into risk-off mode based in large part on the absence of any QE3 mention.  Gold prices declined alongside equities and cyclical commodities, while the U.S. dollar pared its losses. One of the most noteworthy hawkish comments from the Fed Chairman – who is normally considered very dovish – was when he stated that “Substantial further expansions of the balance sheet could reduce pu