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Showing posts from April, 2012

Intentions to keep monetary policy at highly accommodative levels are a bullish case for gold prices

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The gold price rose $5.82, or 0.4%, to $1,663.72 per ounce on Friday following S&P’s downgrade of Spain and a worse than expected report on U.S. GDP.  The price of gold climbed after Standard & Poor’s lowered its Spanish sovereign credit rating by two notches to BBB+ and first quarter GDP increased by 2.2% – below the 2.5% consensus estimate among economists. While the gold price has now advanced on five of the past six trading days, it remains lower in April by 0.7%.  In doing so, the yellow metal is still on pace for its first stretch of three consecutive monthly declines since early 2001. As financial markets had a chance to digest the outcome of the Fed meeting, several strategists weighed in with their view of the implications for the price of gold.  James Steel, a precious metals analyst at HSBC, stated that “Although the Fed did not announce another round of easing, intentions to keep monetary policy at highly accommodative levels are a bullish case for

No Posting Today Due To Attend Bersih 3.0

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Bernanke’s dovish remarks helped lift the price of gold back into positive territory

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The gold price rose $6.04, or 0.4%, to $1,649.84 per ounce Thursday morning following a worse than expected report on the U.S. labor market.  The price of gold advanced as weekly jobless claims came in at 388,000 – above the 375,000 median estimate among 48 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. On Wednesday the gold price oscillated between gains and losses as investors digested developments from the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.  The price of gold initially dropped to $1,625 per ounce following the release of the Fed statement, which did not include any signals that a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) is forthcoming. However, the gold price bounced back to finish up by $2.56 at $1,643.80 after Chairman Ben Bernanke stated in his press conference that “We remain entirely prepared to take additional balance sheet actions if necessary…Those tools remain very much on the table” in the event that the U.S. economy requires further monetary stimulu

71% of central bankers recently stated that now is a better time to invest in gold

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The gold price held steady near $1,640 per ounce Wednesday morning as investors awaited this afternoon’s statement from the Federal Reserve meeting.  The price of gold stabilized in a tight range between $1,637 and $1,645 in overnight trading despite a broad-based rally in financial markets across the globe. The gold price received a boost on Tuesday from a report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) showing that several nations around the world added significantly to their gold reserves in the month of March.  According to IMF data, Mexico purchased the largest amount of gold, 16.81 tons, bringing its total to 122.6 tons.  Russia bought the second most gold, 16.55 tons, which increased its holdings to 895.75.  Other nations that purchased noteworthy quantities of the yellow metal included Turkey, the Czech Republic, Argentina, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan. The IMF also noted that a poll showed 71% of central bankers recently stated that now is a

Gold doesn’t seem to be trading on anything other than externally derived sentiment

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The gold price advanced $6.85, or 0.4%, to $1,645.25 per ounce Tuesday morning as the U.S. dollar Index fell by a modest 0.3% to 79.155.  Silver rose alongside the price of gold , by $0.18, or 0.6%,t o $31.08 per ounce.  Strength in precious metals and the dollar’s weakness was driven in part by worse than expected data on the U.S. housing market. Commenting on the outlook for the yellow metal, Nick Trevethan, senior commodities strategist at ANZ Bank, wrote in a note to clients that “Gold doesn’t seem to be trading on anything other than externally derived sentiment.  There is still pressure for gold prices. The market has been trying to push the support level at $1,630-$1,640, although the push is rather half-hearted right now.”    Looking ahead for the gold price, it is likely to stabilize ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting, according to Standard Bank’s head of commodity trading, Yuichi Ikemizu.  “We probably won’t see much move before the Fed meeting,” Ik

Gold price fell $12.07, or 0.7%, to $1,630.55 per ounce

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The gold price fell $12.07, or 0.7%, to $1,630.55 per ounce Monday morning amid widespread liquidation in financial markets and strength in the U.S. dollar.  Silver fared worse than the price of gold, as it dropped $0.87, or 2.8%, to $30.81 per ounce.  In doing so, the prices of gold and silver reached their lowest levels since April 4th and January 20th, respectively.  Commenting on the gold sector’s weakness of late, analysts at UBS wrote in recent notes to clients that “Physical demand is currently underwhelming – barely even blinking when prices dipped below $1640 yesterday – and this hardly offers any assurance that gold can easily find support on any further price drops… Gold could certainly use fresh catalysts from external markets at this stage to shake it out of this stupor.” One potential catalyst for the yellow metal that surfaced last week was from John Paulson, the billionaire hedge fund magnate whose firm – Paulson & Co. – is the largest shareholder i

Gold price correction since the high last August drawer to a close

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The gold price ranged closing last week meager $7.74, practically dead and not twitching. Rose $1.50 to $1,642.10, but fell $17 (1%) for the week. Aha! What's that I see on a one year chart? Could that be a bullish falling wedge that began in March and neareth its completion? Why, yes, indeed it could be, and is. It also argues that gold will not again visit $1,600. The sad time of this long gold price correction since the high last August drawer to a close. It may yet be weeks away, but higher gold is coming soon. A break through $1,682 will prove it, a break below $1,600 gainsays it, but only for the nonce.

Price of gold stabilized in a narrow range in overnight trading

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The gold price held steady near $1,645 per ounce Friday morning as the U.S. dollar moved moderately lower against a basket of foreign currencies.  The spot price of gold stabilized in a narrow range in overnight trading – between $1,640 and $1,650 – amid a relatively quiet day in financial markets. In a note to clients regarding the data, Ryan Sweet – a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics – stated that “The economy has slowed a notch…We’re just not going to be able to duplicate the growth we saw in the first quarter.” Although the gold price has not fared particularly well in recent months, ongoing economic challenges will help propel the yellow metal back toward its $1,922 record high by year-end, according to a Bloomberg survey of market strategists.  Based on forecasts from the five top precious metals analysts in Bloomberg’s rankings over the past two years, the gold price will average $1,900 per ounce in the fourth quarter of 2012. The five most accurate analys

In the medium to long term gold should be able to assert its status as a store of value and recommence its upswing

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The gold price dipped $6.15, or 0.4%, to $1,644.39 per ounce Wednesday morning amid modest strength in the U.S. dollar.  In overnight trading, the spot price of gold fell from $1,655 to $1,638 but later pared its losses as U.S. financial markets opened. Scotia Mocatta’s Simon Weeks, who publishes a daily note on the price of gold, commented yesterday that “Clearly enough in the way of conflicting signals out there to allow the Optionality of the $1650 level to effectively dictate and thus contain proceedings in the short term and yesterday’s $10 range either side of this level would tend to confirm that view…Frankly we are in data rich environment at the moment, or to put it another way, a target rich environment and as such there will likely be several more opportunities for knee jerk reactions in the coming days.” Weeks went on to say that “There clearly are conflicting signals out there but there was a time when news such as we are seeing at the moment from Spain and

Gold price turned sharply lower - International Monetary Fund (IMF), which raised its projections for global growth – to 3.5% from 3.3% in 2012

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The gold price turned sharply lower Tuesday morning, tumbling from as high as $1,658 to $1,635.83 per ounce.  The price of gold retreated as the “risk-on” trade in financial markets resumed, with stocks and cyclical commodities heading north.  The markets’ advance was fueled by a report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which raised its projections for global growth – to 3.5% from 3.3% in 2012 and to 4.1% from 4.0% in 2013. With today’s gold price sell-off, the yellow metal is now more than 14% below its $1,922 all-time high reached in September 2011.  Gold shares have performed even worse than the price of gold, as the XAU remains more than 27% below the 52-week high it also reached in September of last year. Looking ahead, if the latest IMF growth forecast materializes, platinum could continue to outperform the price of gold.  Platinum’s dual role as a precious and industrial metal would allow it to benefit more so than the gold price from an improved outloo

Several economic data points in the U.S. are likely to impact the direction of the gold price

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The gold price moved slightly lower Monday morning, by $3.43, or 0.2%, to $1,652.87 per ounce.  The spot price of gold fell to an overnight low of $1,642.36, but rebounded as the U.S. dollar pared its gains against a basket of foreign currencies.  The gold price held firm despite a better than expected report on U.S. retail sales, which increased 0.8% in March – above the 0.3% consensus estimate among economists. Looking to the upcoming week, several economic data points in the U.S. are likely to impact the direction of the gold price.  In addition to this morning’s Retail Sales report, the Empire Manufacturing data for April will be announced on Monday.  Thursday’s schedule includes Weekly Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales, the Philadelphia Fed Index, and a report on Leading Indicators. Investors will also be keeping a close eye on Europe – particularly in Spain – where financial markets have come under significant pressure in recent weeks.  Credit default swaps on S

Gold price declined after disappointing report on Chinese GDP and a stronger U.S. dollar

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The gold price declined $10.04, or 0.6%, to $1,665.85 per ounce Friday morning amid a disappointing report on Chinese GDP and a stronger U.S. dollar.  The spot price of gold held in a narrow range between roughly $1,670 and $1,680 in overnight trading, but turned modestly lower as the U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.7% to 79.798 against a basket of foreign currencies. China’s first quarter GDP report was the primary catalyst for the markets’ weakness, however.  At 8.1%, the Chinese economy grew at a slower pace than the 8.3% rate economists were expecting, and marked the lowest growth rate in 11 quarters.  The disappointing report led to broad-based selling in stocks and commodities, following two straight days of gains. As for the price of gold, Standard Bank analyst Walter de Wet wrote in a note to clients that “Especially in the United States, the investment climate is very neutral towards gold at this stage. People really need to see a policy catalyst before they come bac

Gold price turned higher!

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The gold price turned higher Thursday morning amid weakness in the U.S. dollar and a worse than expected report on the U.S. labor market.  The spot price of gold slid to $1,651.32 per ounce in overnight trading, but later jumped over $25 on an intra-day basis to trade at $1,676.53. Strength in the gold price was driven by the latest weekly jobless claims figures, which at 380,000 came in noticeably above the 355,000 consensus estimate among economists.   In an interview with Bloomberg, 4Cast Inc. senior economist Sean Incremona stated that “On the back of last week’s employment report, this does suggest momentum in (the) labor market is slowing a bit.”  The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.5% to 79.406 following the jobless claims data, which also provided a lift for the price of gold. Commenting on the recent stretch of worse than expected employment data, Jeremy Friesen – a commodity strategist at Societe Generale – wrote in a recent note to clients that “If weak data cont

Gold rising back above $1,900 per ounce by the end of this year - Weinberg say

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The gold price stabilized near $1,660 per ounce Wednesday morning as the yellow metal consolidated following four consecutive trading days of gains.  The price of gold remained in a tight range between $1,654 and $1,663 in overnight trading, while the U.S. dollar fell 0.3% against a collection of foreign currencies. Despite yesterday’s gold price rally, the yellow metal remains near the lower end of the trading range it has occupied for the large majority of this year.  Commenting on the outlook for the price of gold, Commerzbank analyst Eugene Weinberg stated in a CNBC interview that “I think that for another couple of months gold is likely to stay under pressure.” Weinberg attributed his cautious outlook to the view that Federal Reserve is unlikely to launch a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) anytime soon.  “I am pretty confident that for the time being this medium-term trend is likely to stay downward,” he added, “and we are likely even to see prices below

Gold price received a boost yesterday from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who reiterates his cautious outlook on the state of the U.S. economy

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The gold price held near $1,645 per ounce Tuesday morning as the U.S. dollar stabilized against a basket of foreign currencies.  The spot price of gold reached an overnight high of $1,655.43, but pared its gains as U.S. financial markets opened.  The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), the world’s most liquid gold price proxy, rose $0.41, or 0.3%, to $159.78 per share. The gold price received a boost yesterday from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who reiterates his cautious outlook on the state of the U.S. economy.  Although the majority of his comments related to regulation of the financial industry, Bernanke noted at the 2012 Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Financial Markets Conference in Stone Mountain, Georgia that “About three and a half years have passed since the darkest days of the financial crisis, but our economy is still far from having fully recovered from its effects.” Commentary from analysts at Morgan Stanley provided support for the price of gold as well on Mon

Price of gold moved higher following last Friday’s worse than expected U.S. non-farm payrolls report

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The gold price began the week on a positive note, advancing $12.37, or 0.8%, to $1,644.27 per ounce Monday morning.  The price of gold moved higher following last Friday’s worse than expected U.S. non-farm payrolls report.  The latest reading on the state of the U.S. labor market showed job additions in March of only 120,000 – below the 205,000 consensus estimate among economists. Barclays Capital included commentary in a note to clients that could have bullish implications for the price of gold: “The report had an undeniably weak tone and will raise doubts about the strength of the labour market…While (they) do not believe that this report alone will propel renewed policy action in April, the door to further quantitative easing remains ajar and may shift the decision point to the June FOMC (meeting) as the Fed continues to monitor the incoming data.” In spite of the recent gold price weakness, James Steel – a precious metals analyst at HSBC – contended that the longer-t

Gold is the only certainty in this uncertain world

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The European debt problems are erupting again. European stock markets are falling. Even the DAX is topping out. Spanish bond yields are rising as austerity is pushing Europe into recession. This will effect the US market at some point and even Asian markets. On Friday the US released a shocking unemployment report showing only 120,000 new jobs created and a big drop in the employment participation rate. This means more will apply for food stamps, welfare and government assistance. The only way out is default or money printing. Default would sink Obama’s chances in the November election so my bet is that Obama will put immense pressure on his stooge the Bernenk to print and debase the currency. The ECB will do the same. Please keep your gold. Do not be afraid of the government manipulation and the negative news flowing from the government controlled press and their shills. There has been massive off take of physical gold by central banks and large commercial traders according to Cas

Gold remain in a primary uptrend

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Both silver and gold are skidding down the OUTside of a downtrend line from the September highs. This is the same downtrend line they broke thru headed up in January. As long as Gold doesn't close below $1,600 nor silver below 3000c, we won't see lower prices. Keep your eyes on the horizon. Silver and gold remain in a primary uptrend, and haven't even posted a third of their final bull market gains yet.

The rising bearish sentiment is a positive sign for gold prices

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The gold price advanced $11.44, or 0.7%, to $1,630.15 per ounce on Thursday following its worst two-day stretch in over a month.  This morning’s strength in the price of gold was a welcome respite from the substantial selling that has engulfed the gold price of late. The recent sell-off in gold has been accompanied by a notable drop in sentiment toward the yellow metal.  The latest weekly Bloomberg survey of gold analysts, traders, and investors showed the largest bearish reading since December 30.  Fifteen of 29 participants predicted the price of gold will decline next week, 5 forecasted no change, and 9 expected higher prices in the coming week. From a contrarian perspective, the rising bearish sentiment is a positive sign for gold prices – particularly based on recent history of the Bloomberg survey.  On December 30, 2011, the yellow metal had only one day earlier reached a multi-month low of $1,523.90 per ounce.  Over the next month, gold futures surged to as high as

Dramatic selling in gold as good news for the economy became bad news as the FOMC dashed hopes of more easing.

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The gold price slid $22.46, or 1.4%, to $1,624.34 per ounce on Wednesday as yesterday’s sell-off in precious metals continued this morning.  The price of gold declined amid strength in the U.S. dollar after the March ADP Employment Report came in at 209,000 – ahead of the 206,000 consensus estimate among economists. Commenting on the yellow metal’s weakness, RBC Wealth Management’s George Gero wrote in a note to clients that “Dramatic selling in gold as good news for the economy became bad news (Tuesday) as the FOMC dashed hopes of more easing.” Analysts at UBS offered their own take on the gold sell-off, contending that “Gold really does need the physical market to step in right now…So far the response has been limited.  The jewelers’ strike in India persists, overnight demand from that region was poor and the Chinese market is closed, but returning tomorrow.” The gold price, along with most other U.S. dollar-denominated asset classes, initially suffered steep losses a

Range bound on gold for the near term between $1,600 – $1,800 per ounce

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The gold price stabilized near $1,677 per ounce Tuesday amid a relatively quiet morning on Wall Street.  The gold price held in a tight range between $1,673 and $1,682 in overnight trading, Despite Monday’s move higher, the price of gold remains near the midpoint of the area it has occupied for the better part of this year.  Jeff Wright, a managing director and senior research analyst at Global Hunter Securities, wrote in a note to clients that he sees the yellow metal continuing to consolidate in the near-term. “I still believe we are range bound on gold for the near term between $1,600 – $1,800 per ounce;” Wright stated, “and do not see this changing without further quantitative easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve, significant progress towards resolving European debt crisis or a collapse of the euro.” In contrast to Global Hunter Securities, one firm that remained bullish on the gold price was Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofA).  Yesterday, BofA metals strategist Michae

Gold come under some pressure

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The gold price oscillated around $1,670 per ounce Monday morning ahead of the latest batch of U.S. economic reports. A quiet overnight in Asia, with Chinese players out for the next three days, saw gold come under some pressure. This pressure was extended into this morning, as a relatively strong dollar combined with the threat of poor physical demand from India (as we enter a third week of a nationwide strike in protest against gold levies) dampened investor enthusiasm for the metal. The white metals have fared relatively better, although this is only because the are trading mostly sideways, in line with euro/dollar movements this morning.

Gold price showed a muted reaction to the latest U.S. economic data

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The gold price held firm on Friday amid weakness in the U.S. dollar and after a mixed bag of data on the U.S. economy.  The price of gold climbed to $1,671.34 closing for last week, but subsequently pared its gains to trade up by just $1.61 at $1,662.60 per ounce. The gold price showed a muted reaction to the latest U.S. economic data on Thursday.  Weekly jobless claims fell to a fresh four-year low of 359,000, but still came in above the 350,000 median estimate among economists.  In addition, fourth quarter 2011 GDP remained at 3.0%, while economists were expecting the rate to be revised upward to 3.2%. Analysts at VTM Capital attributed the recent weakness in the gold price to its relationship with the broader markets.  In a note to clients, the firm wrote that “We have suspected that it would take much more than a pure dollar correction for sustained gains to $1,700 and beyond, especially now that bullion is strongly correlated to the broader equity market, and risk sen