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Showing posts from February, 2012

Mr. Buffett is wrong when he implies gold is a bubble

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The gold price climbed $14.66, or 0.8%, to $1,782.01 per ounce Tuesday after two key U.S. economic reports came in below expectations.  The price of gold added to its gains after durable goods for January showed a 4.0% decline, well below the 1.0% drop economists were expecting.  The Case-Shiller 20-City Index on home prices showed a 4.0% fall in December, below the 3.7% consensus estimate among economists.  Silver rallied alongside the gold price, by $0.74, or 2.1%, to $36.14 per ounce On Monday the gold price received attention from one of the world’s most famous investors, Warren Buffett.  In an interview with CNBC, the “Oracle of Omaha” reiterated his disdain for the yellow metal because it is not a productive asset.  “This type of investment requires an expanding pool of buyers, who, in turn, are enticed because they believe the buying pool will expand still further,” Buffett contended. “Owners are not inspired by what the asset itself can produce – it will remain l

A key driver of higher gold prices last week was weakness in the U.S. dollar

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The gold price held near unchanged at $1,773 per ounce as U.S. financial markets opened modestly lower Monday morning.  The price of gold fell to $1,763 in overnight trading as the U.S. dollar rallied, but subsequently recouped its losses.  The S&P 500 Index slipped 0.4% to 1,360.51 after the Group of 20 (G-20) decided against raising additional bailout funds to aid the European sovereign debt crisis. A key driver of higher gold prices last week was weakness in the U.S. dollar.  The euro fared particularly well against the greenback, rising from near 1.32 to as high as 1.3487 on Friday.  The dollar’s decline fueled gains in stocks and cyclical commodities, which extended their gains thus far in 2012.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) surpassed 13,000 on an intra-day basis for the first time since May 2008, and crude oil hit a nine-month high above $109 per barrel. While the gold price is now within 8% of its $1,923 all-time record high, investor attitudes towa

Gold with the next target being $1,803 in the short term

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The gold price ­traded near unchanged Friday, hovering near $1,780 per ounce.  The spot price of gold climbed to $1,789.10 – the highest level since November 11, 2011 – during yesterday’s session, but pared its gains as short-term traders took profits in the yellow metal.  With its slight advance, the gold price extended its weekly and year-to-date gains to 3.4% and 13.8%, respectively. Commenting on the consolidation in the gold price, Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen wrote in a note to clients that “(We had) technical buying yesterday with a lack of follow-through today despite support from weaker dollar.”  Hansen added that “I wouldn’t be surprised to find that the market wants to check the conviction of those recent initiated longs here.” In contrast to Saxo Bank, analysts at TD Securities remained more positive on the short-term outlook for the price of gold.  “After yesterday’s nice move higher in gold, taking out buy stops at $1763 resistance, we have been flirting with $

Concerns over the effectiveness over the latest round of Greek bailout funds drove investors into the gold

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The gold price held steady near $1,780 per ounce Thursday morning despite better than expected data on the state of the U.S. labor market.  The price of gold climbed to $1,787 prior to the release of weekly jobless claims, but relinquished its gains after they came in at a four-year low of 351,000.  In doing so, jobless claims beat the 355,000 consensus estimate among economists and fell to their lowest level since March 2008.  Concerns over the effectiveness over the latest round of Greek bailout funds drove investors into the gold price and U.S. dollar.  In a note to clients, analysts at HSBC stated that “Even assuming the new Greek programme proceeds as planned, the Greek government crisis is far from over.  This deal will help creditors to be repaid, as the funds will be channelled into an escrow account to ensure that lenders are prioritized, but it will not revive economic growth any time soon.” HSBC went on to say that “With the Greek economy now in its fifth yea

Gold rallied!

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Yesterday, after an initial spout of weakness just before the open of the US markets, Gold rallied as US participants caught up (after Monday’s holiday) with the previous night’s developments on the Eurozone front. Unlike has been the case for some time, the upward momentum in gold price had little to do with euro/dollar movements (the currency traded mostly on an even keel), but rather just a product of heightened sentiment and renewed appetite for commodities in general. This momentum, however, faded during Asian market trading hours, although enough interest remained to keep prices relatively stable. This morning we’ve seen some profit-taking emerge which has seen the complex lose some ground. However, with concerns over the Eurozone still very much alive (as evidenced by the region’s equity markets which look set to end another day in the red) we are seeing safe-haven demand and the associated buying on dips, limiting exposure to the downside. In Europe, reports that a deal wa

Greece has secured a €130 billion rescue package - Gold prices rose

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The gold price spiked Tuesday morning, rising $11.50 to $1,746 per ounce.  News late yesterday that Greece has secured a €130 billion rescue package failed to quell speculation that Greece would eventually be forced out or leave the euro. Gold prices rose on the news. Last week, a plethora of U.S. economic data combined with ongoing uncertainty over the Greek bailout to send the gold price oscillating between gains and losses.  Looking ahead to the coming week, a similar slate of items likely to impact the price of gold await.  Euro zone officials will hold additional meetings to discuss the specifics of Greece’s aid package.  Also, the U.S. economic calendar contains several noteworthy reports. Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott, wrote in a recent note to clients that “Everyone is playing this gigantic game of brinksmanship but I suspect they [Greece and the euro zone] are working toward avoiding default and there will be an agreeme

Greece’s second bailout at a meeting this evening allowing gold price room to push higher

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Confidence that Eurozone finance ministers will give the go-ahead for Greece’s second bailout at a meeting this evening has kept the dollar at bay, allowing gold price room to push higher this morning. In addition, The move by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) marked the latest maonetary easing measure designed to help stimulate an economy whose growth has slowed considerably in recent months. The PBOC’s move over the weekend has also helped lift the mood on the promise of growing liquidity. The central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio by 50 bps. We are sceptical that this lift to commodities will last, as our analysis shows this particular monetary policy tool to have the most benign effect on commodity prices, especially when it comes to Gold price. Analysts at Citigroup predicted in a note to clients that the PBOC will lower the reserve requirement three additional times by the end of the year.  China’s central bank has lagged “behind the curve” and has “to catch

Retail Gold Price Still Support At High Price

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Retail Gold price still support at high price due to demand. Price as at 17 Feb 2012 is as below:- 999 Gold = RM205/g 916 Gold = RM194/g 835 Gold = RM178/g 750 Gold = RM159/g 375 Gold = RM86/g  Paper gold is easy to speculate but physical gold value is hard. Paper gold now is around RM168/g and during last year at this price, retail gold price for 916 gold is only RM182 current price level cover to paper gold is RM178/g. All paper or index is only a number that can speculated on solid thing like food and physical gold can not be speculated because all this resources is limited.

Gold Price Steady, U.S. Inflation Remains Tepid

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The gold price held firm near $1,735 per ounce Friday morning after the U.S. Consumer Price Index provided the Federal Reserve with additional evidence to support its slew of accommodative monetary policies.  The spot price of gold maintained a slight gain after the January CPI reading of 0.2% came in below the 0.3% consensus estimate among economists. The markets and gold price rebounded after German newspaper Die Welt reported that the European Central Bank (ECB) plans to engage in a Greek debt swap in order to more effectively alleviate the nation’s financial condition.  The euro currency extended its gains against the U.S. dollar following the report, rising from an intra-day low of 1.2976 to 1.2135. Under the terms of the proposed swap, the ECB would exchange the Greek bonds it presently owns for newly issued ones with a longer maturity, so as to give Greece further time to attempt to rectify its fiscal challenges.   Euro zone officials are expecting the plan to re

Gold Price Weighed Down by Dollar and Economic Data

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The gold price tumbled $18.27, or 1.1%, to $1,711.60 per ounce Thursday morning after two key U.S. economic reports came in ahead of expectations.  The price of gold fell only fractionally in overnight trading, but accelerated to the downside after weekly jobless claims fell to a four-year low and U.S. housing starts reached a three-year high.  Strength in the U.S. dollar also pressured the gold price, as well as silver and the broader commodities complex. The latest gold mining CEO to publicly discuss his forecast for the yellow metal was Mark Cutifani of AngloGold Ashanti (AU). As head of one of the world’s largest gold producers, Cutifani stated during the Company’s recent earnings call that the price of gold could “easily poke through $2,000″ per ounce in 2012 and thus reach a new all-time nominal record high. As for his average gold price estimate for the year, the Anglo Gold CEO gave a more modest range of $1,700 to $1,800 per ounce.

Uncertainty over whether Greece would receive its bailout funds helped drive investors into the Gold

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The gold price climbed nearly 1% Wednesday to $1,736 per ounce as uncertainty over whether Greece would receive its bailout funds helped drive investors into the Gold.  Stocks and commodities rose alongside the price of gold, shrugging off Greek worries, after People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan pledged to support Europe.  Zhou stated, “Some people had cast doubt or suspicion over the currency, but for the People’s Bank of China, we have always been confident in the euro and its future.” News out of Greece continues to drive financial markets.  There have been numerous reports that Greece was moving closer to implementing recently approved austerity measures that would ensure it receives its next round of bailout funds.  Specifically, a Greek government source who spoke on condition of anonymity stated that conservative party leader, Antonis Samaras, is expected to deliver a letter of commitment to the nation’s international lenders on Wednesday.  However, the

The defensive nature of gold should continue to support investment demand as investors look for safe havens

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The gold price bounced back from overnight losses in morning trading on Tuesday, rising $3.61 to $1,727.51 per ounce.  The spot price of gold fell to as low as $1,711 at approximately 8:12am ET, but jumped back toward $1,730 after U.S. retail sales missed expectations.  With a 0.4% increase, January retail sales came in below the 0.7% consensus estimate among economists.  Silver rebounded alongside the gold price, from $33.35 to $33.79 per ounce. Analysts at Morgan Stanley also remained constructive on gold prices on Monday.  “The defensive nature of gold should continue to support investment demand as investors look for safe havens.  A continued low or negative real interest rate environment will also provide support.” One factor that could work against the gold price in the near term, however, is rising bullish sentiment – according to a note by TD Securities.  Last Friday, the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released its weekly Commitment of Traders report

Gold oscillated between gains and losses

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The gold price held near $1,725 per ounce Monday morning as the gold price digested the Greek approval of a new austerity program necessary to secure its next round of financial assistance. Gold oscillated between gains and losses on Monday while the euro currency surrendered nearly its entire gain versus the U.S. dollar. The price of gold reached an overnight high of $1,735, but relinquished its gains as the U.S. dollar pared its losses against a basket of foreign currencies. On Sunday evening the gold price showed a muted reaction to news that the Greek parliament approved austerity measures necessary to receive €130 billion in new bailout funds.  The response of the euro currency was also rather tepid, as it inched fractionally higher to 1.3195 against the U.S. dollar.  The financial assistance will allow Greece to meet a March 20th deadline for a €14.5 billion bond repayment, without which a default would have occurred.  However, the latest austerity program included €3

Operation Twist program has continued to indirectly benefit gold prices

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The Federal Reserve’s Operation Twist program has continued to indirectly benefit gold prices by keeping long-term interest rates artificially low. Under the program, which is scheduled to end in June 2012, the Fed is purchasing longer-term Treasuries and selling equal amounts of shorter-term Treasuries in an effort to keep long-term interest rates near record minimum levels.  As a result, the opportunity cost of holding gold – an asset that pays no dividend and offers no yield – has also remained near an all-time low. This morning, the Wall Street Journal reported that “Economists and traders say there are signs the policy, taken together with the Fed’s pledge to keep interest rates near zero until late 2014, has in fact pushed some investors into competition with the Fed itself. That is keeping yields on the 30-year Treasury bond lower than many expected, even after taking the planned purchases that are part of $400 billion Operation Twist into account.” “This c

Gold price plunged Friday as global stock and commodity markets fell amid fresh worries over whether Greek politicians

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The gold price plunged Friday as global stock and commodity markets fell amid fresh worries over whether Greek politicians will pass the austerity measures necessary for the financially-strapped nation to receive its next installment of bailout funds. Gold prices fell $17.30 to $1,711 per ounce. Just yesterday, gold prices eclipsed the $1,750 per ounce level, before relinquishing all of its gains as the day concluded.  The downside reversal in the gold price coincided with a rebound in the U.S. dollar, which pared its losses against a basket of the world’s most liquid currencies.  The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), which had risen by as much as 1.1% to $170.37, settled lower by 0.3% at $168.02 per share.  Shares of GLD traded at 166.01 early Friday morning. Looking ahead, many analysts expect the action of central bankers to continue to fuel gains in the price of gold.  In its latest edition of its  Metal Matters Monthly publication, the precious metals research team at ScotiaMoca

Gold Price Climbs after BOE, ECB Meetings

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The gold price advanced $11.33, or 0.7%, to $1,745.37 per ounce Thursday morning after central banks in England and the euro zone reiterated their dovish stances on monetary policy.  The price of gold held steady near $1,735 in overnight trading, but turned sharply higher after the Bank of England (BOE) announced £50 billion of additional quantitative easing.  The European Central Bank (ECB) kept its benchmark interest rate at a record low of 1% and ECB President Mario Draghi warned of “high uncertainty and downside risks” at his monthly press conference. At a speech in California, Williams alluded to the possibility of further monetary easing.  “The policy actions the Fed takes from here will depend on how economic conditions develop, and they will change as economic circumstances change…We may still need to provide more policy accommodation if the economy loses momentum or inflation remains well below 2%.” “In this situation, it’s vital that the Fed use all the tools

"If you don’t own gold and silver I think you are making a terrible mistake in this environment"

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The gold price traded near unchanged Wednesday, changing hands at $1,744 per ounce as investors and traders awaited news out of Greece.  Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos is attempting to convince his fellow politicians to pass a series of austerity measures in order to secure a second aid package and prevent a disorderly default. Gold prices continue to consolidate under the $1,750 level as sovereign debt yields in Europe ease. The gold price bounced back yesterday from an initial sell-off to finish the day higher by $25.00, or 1.5%, at $1,745.55 per ounce.  The rebound in the price of gold was driven by weakness in the U.S. dollar, which turned sharply lower against the euro currency amid renewed hopes for a Greek rescue package.  The euro reached a two-month high of 1.3269 against the greenback as euro zone officials neared an agreement for the next round of financial assistance to Greece. “I think the price action to begin the year has been exemplary,” Embry state

Dollar lower and gold higher

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The gold price traded slightly lower Tuesday, falling $2.00 to $1,718 per ounce. Gold prices declined alongside the broader stock and commodity markets after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that China’s 2012 gross domestic product could be cut in half to 4.25% from the current 8.5% projection if weakness in the global economy persists. The gold price began the week by retreating $5.87, or 0.3%, to $1,720 per ounce on Monday.  Strength in the U.S. dollar helped to pressure the price of gold, which posted its first three-session losing streak since mid-December.  The gold price fell to as low as $1,710.60 per ounce but pared its losses later in the day.  The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), the largest gold ETF and gold price proxy, settled lower by $0.46 at $167.18 per share. However, the U.S. dollar turned lower and gold futures rebounded after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testified on the outlook for the economy before the Senate Budget Committee Tuesday mo

Gold prices fell as investors and traders priced a lower probability of a fresh round of quantitative easing (QE) into asset markets

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The gold price declined Monday, sinking $11.00 to $1,714.80 per ounce. Gold prices fell as investors and traders priced a lower probability of a fresh round of quantitative easing (QE) into asset markets.  Today’s weakness follows last Friday’s $33.99, or 1.9%, drop – its worst showing in over a month.  The better than expected U.S. jobs report appeared to dim the prospects for a third round of QE from the Federal Reserve.  The gold price surrendered its entire weekly gain and snapped a four-week winning streak. Commenting on the jobs data and the gold price, Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen stated that “I think people are asking some questions now with regards to the Fed’s view about low interest rates into 2014.  If job creation carries on at this pace, that could be revised, thereby removing some of the support for gold.” Camilla Sutton, chief currency strategist at Scotia Capital, offered a similar assessment in a note to clients.  “Today’s release is a very positive report a

Gold turned lower after non-farm payrolls came in at 243,000

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The gold price fell $8.35, or 0.5%, to $1,751.47 per ounce Friday morning as the January U.S. jobs report came in well above expectations.  The price of gold turned lower after non-farm payrolls came in at 243,000 – handily beating the 140,000 consensus estimate among economists.  The unemployment rate dropped to 8.3%, below the expected 8.5% level and the best reading since February 2009.The gold price was also pressured by the U.S. dollar, which rebound from earlier losses against a basket of foreign currencies.  European markets extended their gains following the report, while S&P 500 futures climbed 0.9% to fresh six-month highs of 1,334.75.  Dennis Gartman, publisher of the widely-read Gartman Letter and a long-time commodities investor, reiterated his bullish call on the gold price and equities yesterday.  “Gold is rising in terms of all currencies these days,” he noted.  “Gold is a protest against monetary expansion, and hence we might well consider owning equ

Gold prices were also supported by reports that holdings of metal (ETFs) increased by more than 650,000 in January

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The gold price hovered near unchanged Thursday at $1,747 per ounce amid relative calm in financial markets.  Strong auctions for French and Spanish sovereign debt helped keep a bid under European equity markets.  U.S. jobless claims fell last week to 367,000, slightly less than market expectations.  While the price of gold stabilized, the stronger jobs data helped boost the U.S. dollar, which pressured other commodity prices.  Oil and copper prices fell roughly 1% each to $96.95 per barrel and $3.80 per pound, respectively. Gold prices were also supported by reports that holdings of metal exchange-traded funds (ETFs) increased by more than 650,000 in January.  This marked the first month of net inflows since October and signaled that buying interested in the yellow metal is on the rise.  The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), the world’s largest gold ETF and a proxy for the price of gold, inched higher by $0.25, or 0.2%, to $169.56 per share on Wednesday. Commenting on the gold pr

Weaker than expected economic data helped to boost the price of gold

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The gold price advanced Wednesday, gaining $7.80 to $1,747 per ounce.  The price of gold capped off the month of January by rising $10.15.  Weaker than expected economic data helped to boost the price of gold, which posted an impressive 11.1% rise in the first month of 2012.  In doing so, the gold price posted its best month since August of last year and recaptured almost its entire 10.4% decline in December. Despite the recent rise in gold prices, many investors and analysts remain cautious on the outlook for the Gold.  Scotta Mocatta’s Simon Weeks, who has repeatedly questioned the sustainability of the recent rally, noted, “if gold breaches the mid $1760s in a convincing manner and continues as it has been on the crosses then I will have to throw the towel in but for the time being I remain suspicious as to how genuine the current level of demand is.” Bernanke and his fellow central bankers based a substantial amount of their dovish stance on the myriad of headwinds

Fed wants gold to go higher

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The gold price resumed its climb in 2012 Tuesday morning, advancing $15.00 to $1,744 per ounce. Gold price are hovering at seven-week highs and have now appreciated 12% in January and are off to their best start since 1980.  TD Securities analyst team highlighted the strong demand for gold bullion exchange-traded funds.  In a note this morning, TD Global Precious Metals commented,  “Underpinning the recent rally in gold is the notable rise in ETF holdings…last week saw an impressive addition of 0.73 million ounces, the largest weekly increase since November and taking us to within 1% of all time high numbers seen in December.” The Federal Reserve “really wants to trash the dollar,” according to Jim Rickards, author of acclaimed book Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis . In an interview with King World News, Rickards discussed his outlook for gold and the greenback in light of last week’s Fed meeting.  ”Contrary to what a lot of people think, the Fed wants go