2009-09-16

Gold Is Running Out Of Steam














The dollar has reached its lowest level YTD against the euro yesterday and resistance to a move higher from crude oil, Gold and base metals was quite substantial (admittedly the trade-weighted dollar is not at a YTD low). There are a few other factors which made yesterday’s resistance by commodities even more remarkable: although the day kicked-off on a negative note in Asia, risk appetite grew substantially as the day progressed.

The VIX ended the day lower, while the FTSE, the S&P and the Dow managed gains. US Treasuries sold-off. All signs of risk-appetite and still gold remained subdued. This could be a sign that gold markets are wary of what lies ahead this week. Their seems to be strong resistance of adding more longs given that large speculative length has been added already during the past two weeks.

Gold especially provided very good resistance closing lower on the day. In fact most of the report still believe gold is running out of steam and could see a correction lower. I also believe a possible correction lower should be bought. Support for gold likely at USD990 and USD983, while resistance is at USD1,005 and USD1,015.

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