2009-11-02

ETF holdings are still rising!

Gold seems destined to move higher. Most of the investor next target is at USD1,100 in Q4:09. Observed a support base building in investment demand and physical demand. ETF holdings are still rising. The latest figures show that ETF holdings have reached 1,750 tonnes. This is 48 tonnes higher than at the start of October, and 572 tonnes higher than at the start of the year.

As expected ETF holdings to remain well supported and still see the US dollar weakening towards USD1.60 in the next six months. This would add to upward momentum in the ETF market. However, dollar dependence is likely to make the ride volatile. Despite such volatility, investor report see the downside in gold well protected by buying interest in the physical market. At this stage, buying support is especially strong when gold eyes USD1,030. Currently, buying momentum (in the physical flows tracked) has reached the highest level since early September. I expect interest to remain strong into year-end. However, caution that physical buying interest could be very limited by Q1:10, as seasonal demand for gold reaches an annual low during this period.

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