2011-03-12

Gold are rebounding after several days of profit-taking


As anticipated, Gold are rebounding after several days of profit-taking and lacklustre investor demand. Once again, it is the demand for safety that is driving the buying of Gold, as geopolitical tensions in the MENA region escalate and spread. Gaddafi forces have resumed air strikes on opposition forces in key oil centres along the Libyan coastline. The threat of political instability spreading to Saudi Arabia (the world’s largest exporter) has been raised by calls for today to be a “Day of Rage”. We believe that the risk of significant political turmoil in Saudi Arabia remains low. Nevertheless, the markets are anxious.

The recent downgrade of Spain’s sovereign credit rating has seen market fears surrounding the Eurozone debt crisis resurface. This is most likely also contributing to renewed interest in the safe-haven appeal of Gold. The earthquake in Japan and yesterday’s disappointing US jobless claim numbers could also be contributing to the markets unease, adding to support for Gold.

Chinese inflation figures came in only slightly higher than expected. However, an announcement of tighter monetary policy (most likely in the form of increased reserve requirements) could still be imminent. This might give Gold bulls pause ahead of the weekend. We expect a knee-jerk sell off (and advocate buying in such a dip) should such an announcement be made.

Gold support is at $1,402 and $1,389. Resistance is at $1,431 and $1,446.

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