2011-03-05

Gold support is at $1,408 and $1,396. Resistance is at $1,435 and $1,449

Ongoing speculation that the conflict in Libya might come to an end weighed heavily on precious metals in yesterday’s trade. This pressure has since faded on news of renewed attacks by Gaddafi forces and the outright rejection by opposition leaders of mediation offers from Venezuelan President, Chavez and the Arab league. With oil prices once again tracking higher, precious metals should follow suit on both safe-haven demand and inflation hedging. As always, developments on this front will be key to the day’s move.

Adding to yesterday’s downward momentum, was ECB President Trichet’s hawkish remarks which raised fears of dwindling global liquidity. We believe that these fears are unwarranted, and forecast that the global liquidity will continue to grow this year, albeit at a slower pace, but still sufficient enough to provide support to precious metals, especially gold. Also in the spotlight will be today’s release of US nonfarm payrolls data, although it is unlikely that this could take the focus away from the MENA political tensions. Markets are looking for a sharp rise in payrolls for February, up by 196k from 36k. This seems realistic, given that January’s numbers were depressed by adverse weather conditions. A much stronger-thananticipated reading might prompt some profit-taking on gold and silver.

Gold support is at $1,408 and $1,396. Resistance is at $1,435 and $1,449.

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