2011-05-12

Chinese inflation and monetary aggregate figures, at first prompted some knee-jerk selling


Apart from a short-lived dip early in the New York trading session due to rumours that there might be a hike in margin requirements for COMEX gold, gold and silver have continued to make steady gains. As we had anticipated, the release of Chinese inflation and monetary aggregate figures, at first prompted some knee-jerk selling. Consumer inflation for April came in higher
than expectations at 5.3% y/y (consensus: 5.2% y/y), which heightened the market’s concerns over rising global inflation. This has provided some support for Gold, more so for gold and silver, as investors seek to protect the value of their wealth from rising prices.

Eurozone debt concerns continue to play a supportive role, and along with renewed physical interest, we see the potential for more upside today for gold and silver. Looking specifically at gold, we have seen strong physical buying interest in recent days. The buying interest on Friday last week was the strongest we’ve seen since early February. While consistent physical buying interest has come from most notably from India, we are witnessing a broader interest from Asia in general — even with gold above $1,500. We believe gold should be bought on approach of $1,500. Strategically we remain bullish on gold, even at these levels.

Gold support is at $1,513 and $1,503. Resistance is at $1,527 and $1,530.

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