2011-06-08

The odds that gold will “soon” reach a new all-time record high are “good,”


The odds that gold will “soon” reach a new all-time record high are “good,” according to the founder of one of the most closely-tracked gold sentiment indicators.

The most recent Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index (HGNSI), which measures market timers’ recommended exposure to gold, came in at 20.3%. This figure is just 13 points above the 7% level from mid-May, when gold fell to as low as $1,480 per ounce.

From a contrarian perspective, this is a particularly bullish sign for the yellow metal.

According to Mark Hulbert, founder of the HGNSI, “Normally in the face of a $65 increase in gold’s price, we’d expect to see the HGNSI jump by more than this, which is why contrarians conclude that bullishness in the gold market remains healthily subdued.”

Hulbert went on to say that “In fact, even though gold closed Monday within 10 dollars of its previous all-time high, the HGNSI currently stands 53 percentage points below where it stood when gold hit that earlier high.”

“This all suggests to contrarians that gold has good odds of soon trading at a new all-time high. How far bullion is able to push into new-high territory will depend in no small part by how quickly the gold traders then choose to jump on the bullish bandwagon.”

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