2012-03-29

Gold price waned as the boost from Bernanke’s dovish comments the previous day began to fade

Gold price waned as the boost from Bernanke’s dovish comments the previous day began to fade. Evaporating physical demand also pushed gold lower, dragging down the rest of the complex. The flip-side of this is that the recent decline in gold could see physical buying accelerate. This interest is mainly from South-East Asia as Indian buyers remain largely absent (reportedly 85% of stores are closed) as they enter their 12th day of protest action.

A firmer dollar extended the downward trend of Gold price into Asian trading hours, although low volumes kept losses relatively subdued. Still following dollar movements, this morning saw a brief interruption of the downward momentum as a weaker dollar lent some support to the complex. However, the euro was soon on the back foot again, sending gold price lower. We expect choppy trading to keep volatility high as we move into month- and/or quarter-end.

The market will be looking at today’s US goods orders data as a hint to the possibility of further Fed monetary easing. Weaker numbers would imply a greater chance of QE3. However, we concur with the general market feeling that the numbers for February will show an improvement after the dismal falls in January. This could put forward downward pressure on gold price if we see dollar strength as a result of reduced expectations for further monetary easing in the US.

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