2012-04-19

In the medium to long term gold should be able to assert its status as a store of value and recommence its upswing

The gold price dipped $6.15, or 0.4%, to $1,644.39 per ounce Wednesday morning amid modest strength in the U.S. dollar.  In overnight trading, the spot price of gold fell from $1,655 to $1,638 but later pared its losses as U.S. financial markets opened.

Scotia Mocatta’s Simon Weeks, who publishes a daily note on the price of gold, commented yesterday that “Clearly enough in the way of conflicting signals out there to allow the Optionality of the $1650 level to effectively dictate and thus contain proceedings in the short term and yesterday’s $10 range either side of this level would tend to confirm that view…Frankly we are in data rich environment at the moment, or to put it another way, a target rich environment and as such there will likely be several more opportunities for knee jerk reactions in the coming days.”

Weeks went on to say that “There clearly are conflicting signals out there but there was a time when news such as we are seeing at the moment from Spain and indeed others for that matter would have lit a fire under the gold bonfire but that clearly isn’t happening and that should worry longer term holders who, for now at least, feel relatively insulated from the markets short term volatility – sideways to lower for sure for now but the longer gold fails to lead from the front and effectively plays second fiddle the greater the chance that somebody takes a strategic decision to kick their holding into touch – clearly the bad news is in the price it’s as simple or as complicated as that.”

In contrast to Weeks, analysts at Commerzbank were more constructive on the outlook for the gold price.  In a report on Tuesday, the firm wrote that investors will closely monitoring Europe in light of escalating concerns that Spain may succumb to a financial bailout.  “In the medium to long term gold should be able to assert its status as a store of value and recommence its upswing,” the firm contended.

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