2012-07-14

The gold price also received a lift from the latest disappointing report on the U.S. economy

The gold price jumped back toward $1,600 per ounce on Friday amid considerable weakness in the U.S. dollar and a broad-based rally on Wall Street.  The spot price of gold climbed as much as $24.01, or 1.5%, to $1,596.43 per ounce in morning trading while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) slid 0.5% to 83.405.  The DXY, which has exhibited substantial strength in recent months, yesterday reached its highest level since July 2010.  Today’s sell-off, however, provided a noticeable tailwind for not just the gold price, but also the entire commodities complex.

Although today’s rise in the price of gold marked its best day thus far in July, the yellow metal remains well within the $1,550-$1,630 range that it has occupied for the past several months.  Macquarie analyst Hayden Atkins wrote in a note to clients that “Gold’s drifting with the tide.  It’s still in this range, where no-one has a lot of conviction over whether it should do one thing or another. We may get that in the next couple of months, but in the near term it’s not clear what’s going to push it one way or another.”

The gold price also received a lift from the latest disappointing report on the U.S. economy.  The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 72.0 – below the 73.5 consensus estimate among economists.  Furthermore, the Index fell to its lowest level this year and reinforced the view that the U.S. economy could be headed for a new recession.

Thomas Simons, an economist at Jefferies Group, noted that “There hasn’t been a lot for consumers to kind of hang their hat on recently.  It’s hard to imagine that there’s a lot of good feelings being generated for the consumer at the moment.”

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