2014-05-06

Gold price are likely to fade as US interest rates move higher

Gold bounced back above its 200d MA this morning after China returned to the market after a long weekend. We still believe that rallies in the gold price are likely to fade as US interest rates move higher. Support for the metal that emanates from geo- political risk around Russia and the Ukraine is very difficult to trade ,given that the price action is event and news flow driven. As a result we also believe that the influence of this event on the gold price is also likely to be transitory. We rather focus on underlying physical demand developments for the metal in Asia and developments in US interest rate. Gold support is at its 200d MA at $1,299 and $1,291. Resistance is at $1,316 and $1,320.
As far as Chinese demand is concerned, we note that demand has improved marginally in the past two weeks, with the SGE premium shifting from being well in the negative territory into a marginally positive territory around the $0.50 level. This does signal that demand from especially China is likely to improve on dips below $1,300. However , we would also expect the SGE premium to move back into negative territory if gold moved to f ar above $1,300

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