Malaysia Gold Investment

While the gold price advanced for the second straight week, sentiment toward the yellow metal has only modestly reflected this rebound. Dennis Gartman, long-time commodities investor and author of The Gartman Letter, wrote on Friday that “there is a decided lack of ‘frenzy’ in the gold market at present, and indeed, we find it passing strange that with gold only a very few dollars from its all time highs there is very little if any speculative enthusiasm.” Gartman noted that MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus for the gold price dropped 2 points to 77% from 79% over the past several days, well below what he would expect given the fact that the gold price is within a few percent of its all-time high. “Bullish enthusiasm is high,” Gartman acknowledged, “but it is not rising and certainly it is not at ‘nosebleed’ levels consistent with previous interim peaks” in the price of gold. From a contrarian perspective, the absence of excessive positive sentiment toward the gold price...

Gold is finding good support between $1,515 and $1,520 and strong resistance on approach of $1,530. We believe that gold will continue to push higher in 2011. We maintain our core long view on gold. While we believe gold would move higher in dollar terms, we expect gold denominated in euros to outperform. On the back of the debt crisis in Europe, our G10 FX analyst last week updated the outlook on the euro/dollar exchange rate. We now believe that we have probably seen the peak of the euro/dollar, and that any rebound from here won’t see euro/dollar above 1.50. As a result, rallies in euro/dollar should be sold, as we focus in on the longer-term target of 1.20 in the next 12 months. Gold support is at $1,515 and $1,512. Resistance is at $1,528 and $1,538.

Gold continued to enjoy good support yesterday and overnight. Supporting the upward momentum was disappointing US durable goods order data. While the adjustment to March durable goods data was positive, the April data indicates a slowdown in especially new orders and transportation equipment. The slowdown in transportation equipment is expected — seasonally US car sales decline sharply in April. This component should pick up again in May. However, of more concern to us is an inventory level of manufactured durables and transportation equipment that continues to rise. Another development that buoyed gold in overnight trade, was a) the approval of gold’s use as collateral by European authorities and b) the Shanghai Exchange looking at prospects for a gold lease market off the back of growing demand in China. This morning however, we have seen someGold come under pressure as early profit-taking emerges in European markets ahead of the weekend and the end of the month. With the dollar stil...

Gold continue to gain as appetite for safe-haven assets is spurred by growing concerns over Eurozone debt. In addition, yesterday’s disappointing Richmond Fed manufacturing data has once again brought into question the strength of the US economic recovery. The index which measures manufacturing activity in the central Atlantic region of the US, fell 6% m/m (consensus: an increase of 9% m/m), as shipments and new orders weakened. This follows other US economic indicators on manufacturing that have disappointed over the past few weeks. It also follows indicators elsewhere, such as China’s industrial and manufacturing data, which shows a slowdown in growth. These are all bullish signals for gold, as investors’ appetite for risk diminishes. To this end, this afternoon’s US durable and capital goods orders data could have a bearing on commodities markets. Weaker-than-expected numbers would bearish for base metals, but if this should lead to some dollar weakness and a desire for safety, prec...

Gold is making steady gains as appetite for safe-haven assets returns. Fitch has reduced the outlook on Belgium’s sovereign debt rating to negative, fuelling concerns over the Eurozone debt situation. The physical market for gold also remains supportive, with strong demand driven by interest in Asia, and in particular China & India. FDrom a technical perspective, with gold above $1,498, we foresee further upside. In addition, a sustained break above $1,520 could bring $1,535 within reach this week. Gold support is at $1,510 and $1,499. Resistance is at $1,527 and $1,531.

Gold is finding good support. Our view remains unchanged. We believe that gold will continue to push higher in 2011. The metal has reached $1,500 and we expect it to consolidate above this level soon. We maintain our core long view on gold. While we believe gold would move higher in dollar terms, we expect it gold denominated in euros to outperform. On the back of the unfolding debt crises in Europe, our G10 FX analysts last week updated their outlook on the euro/dollar exchange rate. We now believe we have probably seen the peak of the euro/dollar and that any rebound from here won’t see euro/dollar above 1.50. As a result, rallies in euro/dollar should be sold as we focus in on the longer-term target of 1.20 in the next 12 months. Gold support is at $1,494 and $1,476. Resistance is at $1,519 and $1,522.

Encouraged by a weaker dollar, gold managed to push out of the doldrums of Friday. However, after pushing through the important $1,500 level this morning, momentum once again seems to be waning. Looking to next week, Eurozone and German PMI data will be closely watched for any indications of the health of the region’s economy, especially in light of ongoing sovereign debt concerns. Worse-than-expected figures could weigh on Gold.

As anticipated, yesterday's trade was characterised by choppy price moves as investors grew anxious ahead of the release of the FOMC minutes. After the release, Gold gained some upward momentum as fears of an early exit to monetary stimulus evaporated. The Fed reiterated its stance that a slower than anticipated recovery, a still weak (although improving) labour market and inflation increases that it viewed as transitory did not necessitate a reconsideration of planned monetary accommodation. The minutes also revealed that FOMC members were nearing agreement on a possible sequence for an exit strategy. However, it was stressed that this did not mean that monetary tightening “would necessarily begin soon”. The majority of members it appears prefer the first asset sales in order to drain liquidity to occur after the first rate hike. Afterwards, assets sales should follow a pre-announced, although adjustable (dependent on close monitoring of inflation), path. We feel that even though ...

Gold have made steady gains overnight, largely supported by a weaker dollar and resurfacing concerns over the Eurozone debt situation. Physical buying remains supportive of gold below $1,500. Today’s release of the FOMC minutes will be important as a signal of the Fed’s plans for liquidity. In anticipation of the release talk/suggestions that the Fed may start to reduce the size of its balance sheet and drain liquidity from the economy are likely to surface. When the Fed drains liquidity, it will be bearish commodities in general, but gold specifically. We find gold has by far the greatest causality with liquidity, followed by crude, and then base metals in general. However, we feel there is no reason to think that the Fed would begin tightening monetary policy (raising rates or draining liquidity) any time soon. Inflation pressures in the US remain subdued, while the labour market still looks relatively weak. In addition, we feel that even though the Fed’s quantitative easing program ...

Physical buying continues to provide support for gold on approach of $1,480. However, investors still seem cautious for now as low volumes and generally sideways moves have characterised trading overnight. We maintain our view that gold should be bought on dips below $1,500, given that strong physical buying interest seems to limit the downside below $1,480. Long term, we expect gold to consolidate above $1,500 soon. We therefore remain bullish on gold. The latest CFTC data (covering the week ended 10 May) shows that net speculative length in gold fell strongly. Falling 75.7 tonnes over the week, this was the largest drop this year. The net speculative position for gold now stands at 684.7 tonnes — down 37.8 tonnes since the beginning of the year. The fall was largely due to a drop of 71.7 tonnes in speculative longs, with only a modest in speculative shorts of 3.9 tonnes. Although the fall in speculative longs was substantial, given that there were only minimal additions to speculativ...

After the previous week’s dramatic fall, open interest rose marginally last week, by 1.4 tonnes. As of last Friday, gold open interest stood at 1,650 tonnes on COMEX, well below last year’s average of 1,787 tonnes. Unsurprisingly, given the modest change in open interest, prices remained largely unmoved from the previous Friday. The strong liquidations experienced during the period the latest CFTC data covers are very much evident. Net speculative length fell strongly. Falling 75.7 tonnes over the week, this was the largest drop this year. The net speculative position for gold now stands at 684.7 tonnes — down 37.8 tonnes since the beginning of the year. The fall was largely due to a drop of 71.7 tonnes in speculative longs, with only a modest in speculative shorts of 3.9 tonnes. Although the fall in speculative longs was substantial, given that there were only minimal additions to speculative shorts, we are still reluctant to take this as signal of a market that has turned bearish on ...

Physical buying interest and a weaker dollar have managed to lift gold, and along with it. Once again, strong physical buying, especially out of Asia, helped curb momentum-driven selling that had pushed gold below $1,500. This confirms our tactical view that gold should be bought on dips below $1,500, as physical demand places a floor at these levels. Yesterday’s reserve requirement increase by China’s central bank did not have much bearing on Gold markets. This is unsurprising, as we’ve highlighted previously my old posting reveals that of all the monetary policy tools the PBOC employs, reserve requirements have the most benign impact on commodities. A slight uptick in US jobless claims figures and indications of growing business inventories, might have lent some support to the complex on raised concerns over the strength of the US economic recovery. Slightly worse-than-expected US producer inflation (6.8% y/y versus an expected 6.5% y/y) might have also renewed fears over rising infl...

Apart from a short-lived dip early in the New York trading session due to rumours that there might be a hike in margin requirements for COMEX gold, gold and silver have continued to make steady gains. As we had anticipated, the release of Chinese inflation and monetary aggregate figures, at first prompted some knee-jerk selling. Consumer inflation for April came in higher than expectations at 5.3% y/y (consensus: 5.2% y/y), which heightened the market’s concerns over rising global inflation. This has provided some support for Gold, more so for gold and silver, as investors seek to protect the value of their wealth from rising prices. Eurozone debt concerns continue to play a supportive role, and along with renewed physical interest, we see the potential for more upside today for gold and silver. Looking specifically at gold, we have seen strong physical buying interest in recent days. The buying interest on Friday last week was the strongest we’ve seen since early February. While consi...

Gold have continued to rebound from last week’s sell-off. Helped along by renewed concerns over the Eurozone debt situation (after Greece’s credit rating downgrade by S&P), gold and silver made steady gains in New York trade, hampered somewhat by a stronger dollar in relation to the euro. On the Asian markets, gold and silver’s momentum began to fade, as persistent investor selling emerged. With the resurfacing of Eurozone sovereign debt concerns, we expect to see continued appetite for gold and silver and, given the recent sell-off, expect to see a return of investor as well as physical buying in search of value. Gold support is at $1,498 and $1,481. Resistance is at $1,523 and $1,531.

According to the latest CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) data, released on Friday 6 May 2011 (note that this data covers the week ending 3 May 2011 and does not include the sharp drop in commodities markets experienced at the end of last week): Last week saw April’s gains all but erased as open interest fell by 47 tonnes. As of last Friday, gold open interest stood at 1,662 tonnes on COMEX, just shy of the 1,660 tonnes at the beginning of April. The fall in open interest was accompanied by a significant 4.4% w/w fall in prices. Net speculative length fell marginally, after the previous week’s dramatic drop of 43.1 tonnes. Falling 5.8 tonnes over the past week, the net speculative position for gold now stands at 760.4 tonnes — down from this year’s high of 809.2 tonnes recorded only two weeks ago. The fall was largely due to a modest drop of 9.3 tonnes in speculative longs. The fall in speculative shorts of 3.5 tonnes helped to lessen the overall decline in net speculative le...

Ahead of today’s US nonfarm payrolls data we would tread cautiously, as the anticipation of this release is likely to prompt heightened volatility with a downside bias. In the wake of the release, a slightly better-than-expected result (or one in line with expectations) might come as a relief and consequently see some knee-jerk buying in Gold. Gold is now below $1,500, a level we’ve been targeting for some time now. While maintain our position that we see better value in a long gold position here, our bias still favours more downside. We judge gold relative to our measure of global liquidity – we believe it can come down more, closer to $1,450. Silver has tested its 100d MA at $34.43. Given our view on gold and base metals, we view further losses as the more likely outcome. A break below $34.43 could see silver all the way back to $29/30. Gold support is at $1,458 and $1,430. Resistance is at $1,518 and $1,550. Silver support is at $32.86 and $30.96, resistance is at $38.12 and $41.48.

Once again, Gold were on the back foot yesterday, with silver leading the way down. A stronger dollar added to this weakness, although another increase in silver margin requirements was the main impetus for the downward momentum. COMEX announced that, as of close of business on 9 May, initial margin requirements for silver contracts would be raised to $21,600, with maintenance margins rising to $16,000. This represents a significant increase, over only two weeks, and has prompted many investors to reconsider their silver positions. A sell-off has ensued, with silver pushing easily through the psychological $40.00 mark, revealing a market heavy with speculative length. The fall in silver prices has dragged the Gold complex lower, Gold, too, might be able to slow down its descent on reports that central banks are increasing their holdings of the metal. The IMF reports that some $6bn worth of gold was added to the central bank reserves of Mexico, Russia and Thailand during February and Ma...

Gold struggled to shrug off bearish sentiment yesterday, failing to gain much momentum off the back of a weaker dollar. In overnight trade, as the dollar began to strengthen, the complex began to falter. Speculation that Soros Fund Management has sold much of its gold and silver holdings, apparently over the last month, has added to the bearish attitude towards these metals. These concerns are echoed in the most recent CFTC figures which shows sentiment towards gold, and especially silver, appears to be souring. Net speculative length in gold fell 43.1 tonnes, as a result of 10.4 tonnes in short position being added, and the loss of 32.7 tonnes in speculative longs. The change in silver speculative positions was much more dramatic. Net speculative length tumbled 1,719 tonnes, the largest drop this year, bringing the level to the lowest point since the end of January 2011. The drop was a result of 854.5 tonnes being withdrawn from noncommercial long positions, with an even...

Osama Bin Laden has been killed is the headline all over the globe this morning. Being an important milestone it has effected many markets and most significantly Crude oil which traded as low as 110.82, gold was also lower on the news but has recovered some since.