Posts

Showing posts from October, 2011

Share market likely to continues the up rally and gold price may stable above 1,700

Image
From last week, the gold price rose $134.80 (8.3%) hand in hand with silver up 482.9c (16%). That's as good as it gets. You can't expect moves like that to last forever -- or even very long. Last Friday gold flattened, losing 50c to shutter Comex at $1,746.20. Think of a baseball thrown into the air, how it rises and rises and rises, then seems to hesitate and begins to fall. Looking at a five day chart, gold was trapped below $1,660, broke out Tuesday and ratcheted to $1,725, then yesterday stepped to $1,750. Chart shows three plain steps. The gold price hit its 50 DMA yesterday ($1,739), a frequent target for upside corrections. Above awaits also the $1,775 milestone where gold broke down in late-September. This week Share market likely to continues the up rally and gold price may stable above 1,700 level. European fix was sufficient illusion to suck in most of the world and give all the positive news.

Euro Plan Only Buys Time, More Defaults Ahead

Image
One of the world’s leading experts on sovereign debt crises sounded none too pleased with the euro zone’s new bailout plan announced yesterday. Kenneth Rogoff – a Harvard economics professor, former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, and author of This Time is Different – stated that the plan “feels at its root to me like more of the same, where they’ve figured how to buy a couple of months.” Speaking at the Bloomberg FX11 Summit in New York, Rogoff contended that “It’s pretty darn clear the euro does not work, that it’s not a stable equilibrium.” Rogoff went on to say that “I don’t think there’s any doubt that we’ll see more defaults beyond Greece. The interesting question is will all the countries in the euro still be in the euro? My answer to that is no.” “There’s just too many inconsistencies,” Rogoff added. The fact that a large number of independent nations are using a shared currency “is missing some big things and it’s just not in equilibrium.” As

longer-term outlook for the gold price will remain quite favorable

Image
The gold price gave back a portion of yesterday’s gains on Friday morning, falling $7.89, or 0.5%, closing at $1,743.60 per ounce. The modest weakness in the gold price coincided with a firmer U.S. dollar, which advanced 0.2% against a basket of foreign currencies. Silver dipped alongside the price of gold, by $0.17, or 0.5%, to $34.93 per ounce. The widespread gains in financial markets developed after a European summit resulted in a more robust financial rescue plan to alleviate the sovereign debt crisis. Euro zone officials announced plans to leverage the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) by a factor of between four and five and to provide guarantees on the sovereign debt of several other financially-troubled European nations. In addition, bondholders agreed to a 50% haircut on Greek sovereign debt. Commenting on the European announcement, analysts at Goldman Sachs acknowledged several benefits of the plan, but also remained cautious until further detail

We potentially have nothing but air to the upside in gold

Image
The gold price up $20.39 to $1,745.21 per ounce Thursday morning after European policymakers announced a comprehensive bailout plan that involves increasing the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) to €1.4 trillion and a 50% haircut on Greek sovereign debt. While the price of gold moved modestly lower, the broader equity and commodity markets surged higher. The euro currency turned sharply higher as well, rallying by 1.6% to 1.4129 against the U.S. dollar Long-time gold bull John Hathaway presented his outlook for the gold price yesterday in an interview with King World News. Hathaway, who runs the Tocqueville Gold Fund, characterized the recent gold price rebound by saying that “To me we have had our correction, shook out a lot of people and now there is sellers remorse. Now those people are not able to get back in except by paying a higher price, so this is classic bull market action.” Hathaway went on to question the soundness of two of the world’s leading fiat

Gold Price Firm, QE3, Euro Meeting in Spotlight

Image
The gold price rose $6.08 to $1,711.26 per ounce Wednesday ahead of yet another euro zone meeting on the region’s sovereign debt crisis. The price of gold climbed to as high as $1,721.40 in overnight trading, but pared its gains amid a better than expected U.S. economic report. U.S. durable goods orders fell just 0.8% in September, beating the -1.0% consensus estimate among economists. The disappointing consumer confidence data ushered in the latest gold price rally amid rising speculation that the Federal Reserve may soon launch a third round of quantitative easing (QE3). Market chatter over the likelihood of additional asset purchases increased noticeably following dovish commentary on Monday from New York Fed President William Dudley. At a speech on the economic outlook, Dudley stated that the U.S. central bank is most certainly not “out of bullets.” Dudley also noted that “It’s possible that we could do another round of quantitative easing,” but did not specify a

Gold price held steady near $1,699 per ounce Wednesday morning

Image
The gold price held steady near $1,699 per ounce Wednesday morning as euro zone sovereign debt concerns continued to be at the forefront of financial headlines. The price of gold climbed to as high as over $1,700 in overnight trading, but pared its gains as the U.S. dollar rebounded against a basket of foreign currencies. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), a proxy for the gold price and the world’s largest gold ETF, traded near unchanged at $161.01 per share. The rally in gold came despite two key factors that have kept a lid on the gold sector in recent weeks: a broad-based sell-off in equities and strength in the U.S. dollar. Today’s action has been more reminiscent of how the sector performed in August, when gold stocks finally began to outperform the price of gold on the upside. While one day does not make a trend, today’s developments are an encouraging sign for a sector that has faced considerable selling pressure since the middle of September.

Gold Sentiment Hits Multi-Year Low, Time to Buy?

Image
The gold price climbed higher Monday, rising back above the $1,650 per ounce level. Despite the fact that European leaders decided at this past weekend’s summit in Belgium not to use the European Central Bank’s balance sheet more aggressively to combat the sovereign debt crisis, investors bid up the price of gold anyways. Gold prices have been mired in a correction as debate rages over whether the current deflation scare is in the process of sending the global economy into a new recession. The Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index (HGNSI), a closely followed measure of investor views on the price of gold, tumbled to -13% as of last Friday. The HGNSI – which measures gold timers’ recommended exposure to the gold – fell into negative territory for only the third time this year. Each instance was “associated with important bottoms” in the gold price, according to HGNSI founder Mark Hulbert. In addition, the HGNSI reached its lowest level since the depths of the financial

Gold have been relatively range-bound

Image
Gold have been relatively range-bound since end of last week, with reactions to developments on the Eurozone debt crisis contributing to volatility but providing little direction. An announcement by French and German officials that this weekend’s EU summit will not see a final agreement on plans for the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF), has deepened the malaise across markets. It was however stated that next Wednesday should see a decision reached on the outstanding issues concerning the EFSF. Until any decisive actions are agreed upon (and hopefully this will be Wednesday), we foresee a continuation of the current directionless trade, accompanied by heightened volatility. With apparently still so much confusion and uncertainty surrounding a possible plan to contain the region’s debt crisis, we don’t hold out much hope for anything that will renew confidence next week. Gold physical buying remains intact, but with the speculative market still appearing to position for further d

Gold Price Surges as Europeans Prepare to Fire up Printing Press

Image
The gold price spiked toward $1,650 per ounce Friday, rallying on the back of weakness in the U.S. dollar and on speculation that European leaders were prepared to print over a trillion dollars to prevent a systemic crisis. Ministers from all 27 members of the European Union will meet tomorrow to discuss how to bolster market confidence in the integrity of its banking system. Stock and commodity prices moved higher across the board with the $31.90 rise in COMEX gold futures accompanied by a 5.1% rise in copper and a 1.7% gain in crude oil. Earlier this week, the gold price and broader financial markets received a boost from a report by The Guardian that European policymakers agreed in principle to expand the EFSF to €2 trillion. However, officials later refuted the report, placing renewed pressure on stocks and commodities. As for the impact of the euro zone crisis on the gold price, analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch noted that the gold could face further headw

Gold price showed a muted reaction to the weekly U.S. jobless claims report

Image
The gold price retreated $19.48 to $1,621.18 per ounce Thursday as weakness in gold continued this morning. The spot price of gold fell to as low as $1,606.90 in overnight trading, but pared its losses as the U.S. dollar turned lower against a basket of foreign currencies. Silver prices fell as well, by $0.56, or 1.8%, to $30.69 per ounce. The gold price showed a muted reaction to the weekly U.S. jobless claims report, which at 403,000 met the median estimate among economists. Despite the heightened volatility in financial markets in recent weeks, the gold price has largely traded between $1,600 and $1,700, and remains 15.7% below its $1,922.20 all-time high. Commenting on the gold market, analysts at Commerzbank wrote in a note to clients that “The price of gold has not really profited from the growing uncertainty,” in recent weeks. Instead, the yellow metal has headed lower alongside assets viewed as relatively risky and has traded inversely to the U.S. dollar. Denni

Gold’s sell-off coincided with a rebound in the U.S. Dollar Index

Image
The gold price oscillated near $1,650 Thursday morning. Rumors out of Europe that its leaders were prepared to expand the size of the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) have led to increased volatility in gold prices as well as in the broader stock and commodities markets. The UK-based Guardian reported that France and Germany are ready to approve a 2 trillion euro rescue fund for Europe and its ailing banking system. Gold’s sell-off coincided with a rebound in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which recaptured the large majority of its earlier losses to trade down by just 0.1% at 77.091 this afternoon. The euro currency, which had been higher by as much as 0.8% at 1.3869 against the greenback, turned lower by 0.1% to 1.3741.

Higher than expected reading on inflation gave traders a key reason to sell investments tied to the gold price

Image
The gold price sunk $14.98 to $1,655.54 per ounce Tuesday morning after a key reading on U.S. inflation came in substantially above expectations. The price of gold hovered near $1,660 in overnight trading, but dropped to as low as $1,634.90 after the Labor Department reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The gain was noticeably above the 0.4% consensus estimate among economists, and marked the largest monthly increase since April of this year. The higher than expected reading on inflation gave traders a key reason to sell investments tied to the gold price, as higher inflationary risks are likely to reduce the likelihood of further monetary easing from the Federal Reserve. The core PPI rate, which excludes food and energy costs, came in at 0.2%, above the 0.1% rise expected by economists. The U.S. dollar inched higher against a basket of foreign currencies following the PPI data, which also helped to pressure the price

The rally in the price of gold and broader markets was fueled by a sell-off in the U.S. dollar

Image
The gold price, at $1,684 per ounce, hovered near unchanged Tuesday morning. After trading as high as $1,695 overnight, the price of gold retreated after German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s chief spokesman, Steffen Seibert, warned that a quick ending to the sovereign debt crisis in Europe was not forthcoming. S&P 500 stock futures turned down on the news while cyclically-sensitive commodities, such as oil and copper, pared their gains. The rally in the price of gold and broader markets was fueled by a sell-off in the U.S. dollar, particularly against the euro. The euro climbed from near 1.36 to 1.3870 against the dollar last week amid reports that European policymakers are considering an expansion of bailout funds to help recapitalize the euro zone banking system. Speculation that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) may play a larger role in the efforts also arose in recent days. Any increase in the level of financial assistance would inherently involve additional

Malaysia Retail 916 Gold Price Support At RM189/g

Image
Malaysia 916 gold price have supported at RM189/g almost a week already. The demand on gold in Malaysia is not high but China and India is buying most of the gold from the world.

Gold prices moved higher overnight and maintained their gains

Image
The gold price rebounded Friday morning, gaining $12.47 to $1,680.54 per ounce in spite of a better than expected report on U.S. retail sales. Silver climbed alongside the price of gold, advancing 1.9% to $32.42 per ounce. Strength in gold and silver prices was fueled by modest weakness in the U.S. dollar, which lost 0.3% against a basket of the world’s leading currencies. Gold prices moved higher overnight and maintained their gains after the Commerce Department reported that retail sales rose by 1.1% in September. The increase exceeded the 0.7% consensus estimate among economists and marked the largest increase in seven months. Additionally, retail sales in August were revised higher to 0.3%. This morning’s move higher in gold prices – despite the positive retail sales data – provided further evidence that the gold continues to “act like a hybrid of a risk asset and a safe haven,” as analysts at UBS wrote in a note to clients earlier this week. While the gold price

Average gold price targets were $1,635 in 2011, $2,080 in 2012, and $2,200 in 2013

Image
The gold price slid back below $1,670 per ounce Friday morning after U.S. weekly jobless claims came in modestly ahead of expectations. Silver retreated alongside the gold price, by $0.53, or 1.6%, to $32.08 per ounce. In the currency markets, the U.S. Dollar Index advanced 0.2% to 77.20, while the euro fell 0.4% to 1.3731 against the greenback. “After trading sideways in June, gold rallied sharply through July and August,” strategists led by Anne-Laure Tremblay wrote. ”The increase was largely due to safe haven demand, triggered by doubts about whether the US would raise its debt ceiling. S&P’s downgrade of US debt and heightened sovereign issues in the Eurozone further increased risk aversion.” Tremblay went on to note that “On 6 September, gold reached a peak of US$1,920/oz. However, sentiment soon reversed, and the price subsequently lost 20%, briefly touching US$1,535/oz on 26 September. It has since recovered to US$1,670/oz. Just as in October 2008, the rece

Price of gold was fueled by a decline in the U.S. dollar against a basket of foreign currencies

Image
The gold price climbed $16.51, or 1.0%, to $1,678.76 per ounce Wednesday afternoon amid a broad-based rally on Wall Street. Strength in the price of gold was fueled by a decline in the U.S. dollar against a basket of foreign currencies. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), a proxy for the gold price, rose $1.43, or 0.9%, to $163.53 per share. Commenting on the gold price, RBC Capital Markets senior vice president George Gero wrote in a note to clients that “We believed a higher trading range [was] imminent after $1,675 as better momentum, higher volume, higher moving averages and higher open interest came into play.” In recent weeks the correlation between gold and other asset classes – particularly the U.S. dollar and euro currency – have noticeably changed. While the gold rallied alongside the dollar as a safe haven for the majority of the summer, over the past month it has traded more in line with the euro currency as a riskier commodity. Analysts at UBS elaborated on these d

Forecasted that the price of gold will average $1,875 per ounce in the fourth quarter of 2011

Image
The gold price retreated on Tuesday, falling nearly 1.1% to $1,661 per ounce. Risk aversion rose across the globe, leading to lower stock and commodity prices. Oil and copper prices fell 1.2% and 3.5% to $84.35 per barrel and 3.24 per pound, respectively. Investor concerns spiked over Europe’s debt crisis this morning as Slovakia, the only country to fail to ratify the new version of the bailout fund, was set to vote. Silver, off 1.5% to $31.49 per ounce, fell alongside the price of gold. The euro’s rise was fueled by reports that German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy would finalize a “comprehensive response” by the end of the month that involved boosting capital levels of European banks. While equities and cyclical commodities advanced on the news, speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) may also be forced to print additional sums of money to lend to banks helped support the gold price. Commenting on the gold price, Barclays Ca

Gold is likely to rise to a new all-time as investors continue to safeguard their wealth in an environment of declining economic growth

Image
The gold price surged higher Monday, rising $39.00 to $1,677 per ounce. Weakness in the U.S. dollar, spurred by healthier risk appetites amongst investors, propelled the price of gold. The euro rose against the greenback following a pledge this past weekend from French and German leaders to do whatever is necessary to prevent a banking crisis. S&P 500 stock futures climbed 15.40 to 1170.30, which crude oil rose 2.2% to $84.80 per barrel. While the gold price has remained in a correction mode over the past month, many precious metals strategists see the yellow metal resuming its advance in the months ahead. The latest firm to raise its gold price forecast was Morgan Stanley, which predicted that gold will be the top-performing commodity in 2012. The price of gold is likely to rise to a new all-time as investors continue to safeguard their wealth in an environment of declining economic growth, according to Morgan Stanley’s Hussein Allidina. The firm raised its 2012

Malaysia Retail Price Update

Image
916 gold price hold on RM189.0/gm

Demand for physical gold continues to be very, very strong. China was off all this week

Image
The gold price held firm near $1,638 per ounce closing this week despite the better than expected U.S. employment report. The spot price of gold climbed to as high as $1,665.20 in overnight trading and remained in positive territory after the release of the September non-farm payrolls report. Silver prices headed north alongside the gold price, advancing $0.59, or 1.8%, to $32.59 per ounce. The September jobs report showed that non-farm payrolls increased by 103,000 in September, well above the 60,000 consensus estimate among economists. The unemployment rate remained at 9.1%, in-line with expectations. The August non-farm payrolls figure was revised higher by 57,000, which also fueled optimism that the U.S. labor market is not deteriorating as significantly as many economists and investors had expected. Commenting on the outlook for the gold price, MKS Finance head of trading Afshin Nabavi stated, via Reuters, that “What you’re seeing is demand for physical gold conti

Gold price stabilized near $1,650 per ounce Friday morning after weekly jobless claims in the U.S.

Image
The gold price stabilized near $1,650 per ounce Friday morning after weekly jobless claims in the U.S. came in roughly in-line with expectations at 401,000. The spot price of gold climbed to as high as $1,656.10 earlier this morning, but pared its gains heading into the open of U.S. equity markets. In contrast to the gold price, silver climbed $0.27, or 0.9%, to $30.76 per ounce. Analysts at UBS echoed this sentiment in a note to clients. “Separating itself from negative influences is by no means a straightforward endeavour for gold and volatile price action is clearly going to persist,” the firm wrote. “Yesterday’s moves highlight the difficulty of making sense of the gold market in the current shaky environment.” Earlier this week, UBS lowered its 1-month and 3-month gold price targets by 9.0% and 7.1%, respectively, to $1,775 and $1,950 per ounce. “Our core bullish view on gold remains unchanged and the light nature of [speculative] positioning is a big positive,

Recent gold price correction has been “healthy”

Image
The gold price stabilized near $1,640 per ounce Wednesday night despite a better than expected report on the U.S. labor market. The price of gold moved down to $1,597 in overnight trading but rebounded early this morning as the U.S. dollar turned lower against a basket of foreign currencies. The ADP employment report revealed that 91,000 private sector jobs were added in September, above the 75,000 consensus estimate among economists. In light of the recent gold price weakness, Macquarie Capital Markets analyst Stephen Harris published a report this week discussing his outlook for the yellow metal. The gold price sell-off “has caused some speculation that gold’s bull-run is complete and that this reversal will soon continue,” Harris wrote. “We disagree. We see the recent pullback as healthy and believe a confluence of factors have combined to create the ~15% decline from its highs.” Harris’ view that the recent gold price correction has been “healthy” was based on se

Gold typically declines when the major economies are in recession; it happened in 2008

Image
The gold price dipped Wednesday morning, sliding $28.30 to $1630.40 per ounce on the back of continued liquidation pressures in global financial markets. The 0.5% drop in the price of gold occurred alongside broad-based weakness in commodities. WTI crude oil led to the downside, dropping 2.6% to $75.58 per ounce while copper declined 1.5% to $3.10 per pound. Worries over the prospect of a double-dip recession intensified this morning as the S&P 500 fell into bear market territory, dropping 20% off this year’s high. The flight away from riskier assets such as equities continues to benefit U.S. Treasuries, evidenced by the 10-year yield falling to 1.63% early Tuesday. Despite Monday’s rally, the spot price of gold remains 14.0% below its $1,922.20 all-time high. Commenting on the gold price weakness, Dundee Securities chief economist Dr. Martin Murenbeeld wrote in a note to clients that “Gold typically declines when the major economies are in recession; it happened i

Gold weakness and the strong level of dip-buying that remains in two key emerging markets

Image
The gold price advanced over 2% Tuesday morning, climbing $48.90 to $1,669 per ounce. The price of gold has been mired in a correction that at one point wiped away over 20% of its value. Since touching $1,533 per ounce on September 26, gold has bounced over 8% to its current level above $1,650 per ounce. Heavy liquidation in the broader stock and commodity markets, as well as rumors of outsized hedge fund selling, has pressured the Gold. While last month’s sell-off in gold may have rattled many investors, that has not been the case in China, at least according to Scotia Mocatta. In a note to clients on Monday, the firm discussed the Gold weakness and the strong level of dip-buying that remains in two key emerging markets. “Over the past 2 weeks commodities, including gold, have been in the crusher, although to be fair losses in non USD currencies have been significantly less than those that have been suffered at the hands of the strong USD,” analysts at Scotia Mocatta

Gold managed to avoid a sustained slide during US trading hours

Image
Bucking the trend of the past few days, gold managed to avoid a sustained slide during US trading hours. However, there was not much upside to be seen either, with prices moving mostly within the $1,610-20 range. This highlights the point we’ve made over the past few days that confidence in gold is lacking despite the continued uneasiness and uncertainty in markets (which usually supports safe-haven demand for precious metals). Perhaps participants are still wary after last week’s liquidity concerns due to the threat of Eurozone banking contagion, which we believe was a significant contributing factor to gold’s fall. Today, it would appear that the continued wariness, together with the holiday-related slowdown in trading volumes (the current Jewish holidays and the pending Chinese Golden Week celebrations starting on 1 October) will make it difficult for gold to sustain any upward momentum. Consequently, we feel that trading will remain relatively range-bound today owing to the relativ

Bank of America Merrill Lynch maintained its 12-month gold price forecast of $2,000 per ounce

Image
The gold price held steady near $1,624 per ounce Friday closing while concerns over a global economic slowdown continued to weigh on financial markets. The spot price of gold climbed to as high as $1,635.80 in overnight trading, but relinquished its gains as the U.S. dollar moved higher against a basket of the world’s leading currencies. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), a proxy for the gold price and the world’s largest gold ETF, dipped 0.4% to $157.02 per share in pre-market activity. Bank of America Merrill Lynch maintained its 12-month gold price forecast of $2,000 per ounce despite the yellow metal’s weakness in recent weeks. In a note to clients, the firm wrote that “It is worth noting that falling quotations were not accompanied by substantial outflows from physically backed exchange traded funds particularly in recent days. Hence, the correction was not necessarily driven by a broad-based reassessment of fundamentals.” Bank of America Merrill Lynch went on to say that