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Showing posts from December, 2011

Gold has advanced 10.1% in 2011 and is set to rise for a remarkable 11 consecutive years

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The gold price rebounded strongly Friday, gaining $17.50 on the last trading day of the year. At $1,564 per ounce, the price of gold is still lower by $42 this week and has fallen $182 in the month of December. Despite this month’s losses, gold has advanced 10.1% in 2011 and is set to rise for a remarkable 11 consecutive years. Hathaway discussed his latest thoughts on the gold price in a recent interview with King World News. When asked about the yellow metal’s slide in recent months, he responded that “The action is what you would expect in a thin market like this, the moves are exaggerated. The people that have shorts on, which has been the right trade for the last several months, they are just pushing it to the limit (on the downside) to make their year.” Given these developments, Hathaway contended that the gold price is near an important nadir. “Traders commitments are indicative of a bottom, sentiment is indicative of a bottom and market action is indicative of...

Forced to sell positions tied to the price of gold in order to cover losses in other asset classes

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The gold price dropped $18.86, or 1.2%, to $1534.74 per ounce Thursday morning as the U.S. dollar added to its recent gains against a basket of the world’s other leading currencies. In overnight trading the spot price of gold tumbled to $1,521.80 per ounce – its lowest level since July 6th of this year – as the dollar reached an intra-day high against the euro currency. The gold price later pared its losses after U.S. weekly jobless claims came in at 381,000 – above the 375,000 consensus estimate among economists. Peter Boockvar, a market strategist at Miller Tabak & Co., noted in a report to clients on Wednesday that “The easier part of Italy’s bond auctions this week took place earlier today. But a good test of the appetite for Italian debt will be tomorrow’s bond sales that have maturities past three years.” While the gold price has traditionally served as a safe haven during times of economic stress, the European sovereign debt crisis has fueled a liquidity sho...

Gold tumbled yesterday after concerns were raised over the sustainability of demand out of China and India

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Gold tumbled yesterday after concerns were raised over the sustainability of demand out of China and India (the world’s largest consumers of gold). The Shanghai Gold Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange both restricted trading on gold spot and futures contracts in a bid to curb illegal activity in commodities. The Bombay Bullion Association forecasts a fall in gold imports for December (as much as 50% m/m) because of the weaker rupee.

Gold price slid $13.89, or 0.9%, to $1,594.92 per ounce Wednesday morning

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The gold price slid $13.89, or 0.9%, to $1,594.92 per ounce Wednesday morning amid modest declines in the broader commodities complex. Silver fell $0.42, or 1.4%, to $28.85 per ounce alongside the price of gold. Equity markets in Asia and Europe were mixed, while U.S. markets looked to open slightly lower after a worse than expected Case-Shiller housing report. With the year drawing to a close, several Wall Street firms have recently published their gold price forecasts for 2012. One of the latest to do so was Goldman Sachs, which predicted that the price of gold will peak at $1,900 per ounce and average $1,810 per ounce in the coming year. Goldman attributed its bullish gold price outlook to further net buying by central banks and strong physical demand from investors, the ongoing negative real interest rate environment in the U.S., and continued European sovereign debt and global recessionary concerns. In its report, the firm wrote that “Our economists’ central thes...

Gold futures held near unchanged at $1,608 per ounce on Monday

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Gold futures held near unchanged at $1,608 per ounce on Monday as financial markets in North America and Europe remained closed for the Christmas holiday. Silver stabilized as well near $29.10 per ounce in thin trading. At their current levels, gold is now higher by 13.2% on a year-to-date basis, while silver is down 6.0% in 2011. RBC Capital Markets strategist George Gero wrote in a note to clients that he expects gold prices to trade between $1,600 and $1,650 in the coming week. He contended that a daily close above $1,615 per ounce could lead to a short-covering rally for the yellow metal during the last week of the year. Equity markets in Asia were open on Monday, as Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index advanced 1.0% to 8,479.34 on the back of Friday’s gains in U.S. markets. In contrast to Tokyo, China’s Shanghai Composite fell 0.7% to 2,190.11 and South Korea’s Kospi dropped 0.6% to 1,856.70.

Gold will be forming a bottom in the coming months

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The gold price oscillated above the $1,600 per ounce level Friday morning. At $1,608 per ounce, the price of gold is lower by $138 in December, a decline of 7.9%. Strength the U.S. dollar has pressured gold and investments tied to the gold price over the course of the month. Nevertheless, the yellow metal remains higher by 13% thus far in 2011 and is on pace to post its eleventh consecutive year of gains. Looking ahead for the price of gold, VTB Capital analyst Andrey Kryuchenkov contended on Thursday that “We still see easing momentum for gold at the end of the month with small chance of physical buyers or longer-term investors returning before [the first quarter of 2012]. In the next few sessions, we expect to see some more volatility in thin pre-holiday trading.” In a note to clients, the VTB Capital also wrote that “We still see little chance for gains here until year end. Gold will stall below short-term resistance at $1,620, in our view. The market failed to bre...

Physical demand from China (ahead of January 23 New Year) and year end-related buying from India which is providing support to the gold price

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The gold price dipped $8.07 to $1,608.82 per ounce Thursday after U.S. weekly jobless claims fell to 364,000, their lowest level since April 2008. The modest decline in the gold price coincided with a firmer U.S. dollar, which rose fractionally against a basket of foreign currencies. Jonathan Loynes, Chief European Economist at Capital Markets, wrote in a note to clients that “While this might help to address recent signs of renewed tensions in credit markets and support bank lending, we remain skeptical of the idea that the operation will ease the sovereign debt crisis too.” Gold shares stabilized near the flatline alongside the gold price on Wednesday, with the AMEX Gold Bugs Index (HUI) closing lower by just 0.1% at 513.56. Notable decliners in the sector included Gold Fields (GFI) and Kinross Gold (KGC), which slid 1.0% and 0.5%, respectively. In contrast, Barrick Gold (ABX) advanced 0.4% to $46.28 per share and Newmont Mining (NEM) rose 0.4% to $62.88 per share. Wi...

Morgan Stanley forecasted the gold will reach $2,200 per ounce in 2012

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The gold price traded near unchanged Wednesday, oscillating around the $1,615 per ounce level. Gold prices surged as high as $1,641 per ounce overnight before backing off heading into the opening bell on Wall Street. News that the European Central Bank awarded $645 billion in three year loans, the highest total ever for a single operation, propelled gold higher in the overnight session. While Morgan Stanley highlighted that the chorus of those calling for the end of the gold bull market has risen substantially of late, it believes such calls are misguided. “While seasonal and non-gold market factors have undoubtedly played an important role in the two corrective waves of selling since September 2011, the unusual phenomenon of negative gold lease rates and falling gold prices points to other factors at work in the gold market,” the firm wrote. “We conclude that these probably relate to bank funding stress.” Although Morgan Stanley expects such stresses to continue in 201...

Nearly half predicted that the gold price will fall to $1,450 per ounce in the first quarter of 2012

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The gold price climbed $18.19, or 1.1%, to $1,610.87 per ounce Tuesday closing as the U.S. dollar declined against a basket of the world’s leading currencies. Silver advanced alongside the the price of gold by $0.57, or 2.0%, to $29.36 per ounce, as the commodities complex was bolstered by the weaker dollar. With the current year winding down, Reuters polled 20 hedge fund managers, traders, and economists on their outlook for the price of gold in 2012. Given the considerable sell-off in recent months, it was not surprising that most respondents were quite cautious on the yellow metal’s prospects for next year. Nearly half predicted that the gold price will fall to $1,450 per ounce in the first quarter of 2012, and that gold is unlikely to reach a new all-time high until at least the third quarter. Reuters cited “a lack of immediate monetary easing or stimulus programs by central banks” as the primary reason respondents were bearish on gold’s prospects in 2012. Jeffrey Sh...

Gold Price Hovers Near $1,600 After Last Week’s “Beating”

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The gold price stabilized near $1,600 per ounce Tuesday morning as the euro currency traded near unchanged against the U.S. dollar. The spot price of gold fell to as low as $1,584.90 per ounce in overnight trading, but later climbed to $1,610.30 as the euro recovered from earlier losses against the greenback. Growing political uncertainty in North Korea also helped to support the gold price, after the nation announced that leader Kim Jong-il passed away due to a heart attack. Asian markets tumbled after his death was reported, but European markets bounced back alongside the euro currency and S&P 500 futures rose 0.4% to 1,216.25. As investors continued to fret over the effectiveness of European officials’ efforts to combat the debt crisis, the euro plummeted to fresh 11-month lows against the U.S. dollar. The currency cross fell from 1.3370 at the beginning of the week to as low as 1.2945 last Thursday, before bouncing modestly back above the 1.30 level. The U.S. d...

Kim's death - there had been some fear among North Korean

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Kim's death was announced on Monday by the state television from the North Korean capital, Pyongyang. Kim is believed to have suffered a stroke in 2008 but he had appeared relatively vigorous in photos and video from recent trips to China and Russia and in numerous trips around the country carefully documented by state media. The communist country's "Dear Leader" - reputed to have had a taste for cigars, cognac and gourmet cuisine - was believed to have had diabetes and heart disease. The news came as North Korea prepared for a hereditary succession. Kim Jong Il inherited power after his father, revered North Korean founder Kim Il Sung, died in 1994. In September 2010, Kim Jong Il unveiled his third son, the twenty-something Kim Jong Un, as his successor, putting him in high-ranking posts. Kim Jong Il had been groomed for 20 years to lead the communist nation founded by his guerrilla fighter-turned-politician father and built acc...

Bargain hunters stepped in to take advantage of the $176 correction in the price of gold

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The gold price climbed $25.20 to $1,592 per ounce after trading as high as $1601 per ounce early Friday morning. Bargain hunters stepped in to take advantage of the $176 correction in the price of gold that has occurred in the month of December. Weakness in the U.S. dollar against the euro helped boost precious metals and the rest of the commodities complex. Silver advanced nearly 2% to $29.74 per ounce while copper climbed 2.7% to $3.35 per pound. While the price of gold moved lower on Thursday, silver snapped a three-day losing skid by rebounding modestly. The spot price of silver advanced $0.14, or 0.5%, to $29.06 per ounce. Gold’s sister precious metal had reached an intra-day high of $29.38, but pared its gains as the U.S. dollar bounced back against the euro currency. The euro still managed to climb against the greenback, however, but by only 0.3% to 1.3020. Weakness in the gold price continued to pressure shares of gold mining companies, as the AMEX Gold Bugs ...

Gold price sell-off was fueled not only by further sovereign debt fears in Europe, but also by the aftermath of the Federal Reserve’s latest monetary

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The gold price rose $13.40, or 0.9%, to $1,585.68 per ounce Thursday morning as financial markets bounced back from yesterday’s broad-based sell-off. The price of gold rebounded modestly as the euro currency snapped a three-day losing skid against the U.S. dollar. Equity markets in the U.S. were set to open considerably higher as well, with the S&P 500 futures contract up 1.0% at 1,218.75. Strength in the U.S. dollar also helped to pressure the gold price, as the greenback reached its highest level since January 12, 2011 against a basket of the world’s largest currencies. The euro concurrently dropped to a fresh 11-month low of 1.2982 against the dollar after the head of Germany’s central bank, Jens Weidmann, cautioned that the euro zone will not implement a quantitative easing program to combat the debt crisis. At a speech in Berlin, Weidmann stated that “One idea must finally be put aside, that of getting the needed money from the printing press.” Wednesday’s g...

Gold is due for a strong rally.

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With gold futures tumbling to fresh multi-month lows on Wednesday, price is not the only aspect of the yellow metal that has come under significant pressure in recent weeks. Gold sentiment has declined to extremely low levels, so much so that noted market pundit Mark Hulbert wrote this morning that “gold bugs are throwing in the towel.” Hulbert noted that the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index (HGNSI) – one of the most closely-followed measures of the investment community’s stance toward gold – reached 0.3%. This level “means that the average gold timer is essentially keeping all of his gold-oriented portfolio out of the market,” he wrote. Although Hulbert acknowledged that the gold price proceeded to tumble over $100 in the past week – at which time the HGNSI was already at a very low reading of 13.4% – he noted that “at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use to determine if a pattern is genuine, gold bullion tends to do better following low HGNSI ...

Gold price has been under pressure due to a stronger U.S. dollar and broad-based selling in financial markets

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The gold price traded lower at $1,625 per ounce Wednesday. After breaking below $1,700 per ounce yesterday, gold prices failed to mount a rally this morning. The gold price has been under pressure due to a stronger U.S. dollar and broad-based selling in financial markets – plummeting $44.86, or 2.6%, during Monday’s session. With its decline, the spot price of gold dropped to its lowest level in seven weeks and extended its loss in December to 4.5%. As for the gold price, Dennis Gartman – long-time commodities investor and author of The Gartman Letter – wrote on Monday that “We shall continue to reduce our exposure to gold and we had hoped to increase our exposure to equities, moving eventually to balance this position, holding equal sums of gold and equities while being short of the EUR.” However, Gartman noted that with the recent uptrend in the euro-denominated price of gold breaking with yesterday’s sell-off, he sold his entire position in the gold. Although he ack...

Investor do not believe gold’s long-term upwards trend to be under threat

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The gold price plunged Monday morning, sliding $39.65 to $1,672 per ounce. Investors shed long gold positions and investments tied to the gold price amid heightened worries that the continued refusal of the European Central Bank (ECB) to more aggressively aid Italy and Spain will lead to a fresh deflation episode. S&P 500 stock futures fell 13.30 to 1239.70 while oil sank $1.28 to $98.12 per barrel. Despite gold’s muted initial reaction to the outcome of the December 9 meeting of 27 European leaders, the yellow metal is facing heavy selling in the aftermath of the latest European summit. Officials were unable to achieve unanimous support for a new agreement on tighter fiscal regulations, although the group said it would pursue an intergovernmental treaty with the majority of member nations. In addition, the European nations agreed to provide the International Monetary Fund (IMF) with up to €200 billion in bilateral loans that could be utilized to provide financia...

Survey of Gold Traders Most Bullish Since Early November

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A weekly survey of gold traders showed that market participants have turned noticeably more positive on the Gold of late. In Bloomberg's latest weekly gold survey, 18 of 26 respondents said they expect gold prices to rise next week. This marked the highest bullish response since November 11. Two traders predicted the yellow metal will decline, while the remaining 6 were neutral. The report attributed to the positive outlook on gold to escalating sovereign debt concerns in Europe, coupled with several other macroeconomic factors. ”Central banks are adding to their gold reserves for the first time in a generation. South Korea said last week it bought 15 tons in November to diversify its foreign-exchange reserves. The World Gold Council expects central banks to buy as much as 450 tons this year. Official holdings stand at 30,708 tons, data from the council show.”

Gold prices succumbed to broad-based selling pressure

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Gold price, at $1,712 per ounce, hovered near unchanged to end this week. After moving as high as $1,724 per ounce early morning, gold prices succumbed to broad-based selling pressure. European leaders announced a verbal commitment to pursue a tighter fiscal union, but as has been the case in the past, details were sparse. Of greater importance to financial markets was European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s continued insistence that the ECB will not be used to fund fiscal deficits on its member nations. The gold price was also pressured by a rally in the U.S. dollar, which advanced 0.6% against a basket of foreign currencies. The euro slid 0.5% to 1.3349 against the greenback, fueling widespread weakness in the commodities complex. In precious metals, silver dropped 3.0% to $31.62 per ounce and platinum slid 2.2% to $1,493.50 per ounce. The cyclically-sensitive copper price fell 1.7% to $3.50 per pound, and crude oil retreated 2.2% to $98.25 per barrel. The pr...

Gold has oscillated between gains and losses as investors await Friday’s European Summit

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Although the gold price headed north on Thursday, it remains close to the mid-point of the $1,600-$1,900 per ounce trading range it has occupied for the past several months. This week the price of gold has oscillated between gains and losses as investors await Friday’s European Summit, where policymakers are expected to present a more formidable plan for dealing with the euro zone sovereign debt crisis. Daniel Smith, an analyst with Standard Chartered, wrote in a note to clients yesterday that “Such a big unknown event risk is making people quite cautious and, heading into year-end as well, no one really wants to take any positions and it adds to that lack of interest in the market… My assumption would be that the summit would end up being slightly disappointing and therefore, base metals will do relatively badly and gold will do relatively well on the back of fresh safe-haven flows.” Another downgrade warning from Standard & Poor’s also helped support the gold price...

Further turmoil for the global financial system and a continued favorable environment for the price of gold

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The gold price rallied Wednesday on rumors that the European Central Bank will announce a series of new measures to stimulate the stagnant European economy. Gold prices climbed $5.25 to $1,735 per ounce as various news outlets reported that the ECB is considering loosening collateral requirements for banking institutions. Further monetary accommodation by the ECB would likely support the gold price – as well as the broader stock and commodity markets. Commenting on the gold price in light of the ongoing uncertainty in Europe, UBS precious metals analyst Edel Tully wrote in a report to clients that “Price sensitivity to headlines will persist, if not intensify, and make for jerky market moves…Given the significant event risk, some investors may choose to wait for the picture to clear before taking positions of size, so thin liquidity will also be a potential feature.” Richard Russell offered a more bullish stance on the price of gold in a recent edition of Dow Theory Lett...

Summit contains considerable uncertainty for the price of gold

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The gold price moved lower Tuesday, trading off $17.00 at $1,706 per ounce before bound back to $1,722. Analysts at Canadian-based Stifel Nicolaus noted that “ Physical demand is slowing ahead of Euro summit.” All eyes continue to be on Europe and the summit set to take place on December 9 among European leaders. S&P 500 stock futures traded near unchanged at 1255.60 while the price of gold and broader commodities complex were lower across the board. Oil and copper fell 0.4% and 2.2% to $100.58 per barrel and $3.53 per pound, respectively. While Standard & Poor’s warning rattled the gold price and gold equities, the ratings agency later placed all 17 nations in the euro zone on “credit watch negative” – representing a 50% chance of a downgrade within the next 90 days. The move came despite an encouraging meeting between French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The top officials in France and Germany agreed on a proposal to impl...

George Soros - evidently feels the gold has yet to reach bubble territory

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The gold price retreated Monday, sliding $8.65 to $1,733.95 per ounce. Gold prices sank while stocks and commodities posted strong gains. S&P 500 stock futures climbed 17.00 to 1,260.50 while crude oil, copper, and soybeans all moved to the upside. Optimism that Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti’s proposed budget cuts will help stabilize the nation’s bond market helped power the broad-based rally. The yield on 10-year Italian sovereign debt fell to 6.1%. George Soros, who famously called gold “the ultimate bubble” several years ago, evidently feels the gold has yet to reach bubble territory. The legendary investor – famous for founding the Quantum Fund in the 1970s and for shorting the British pound in the early 1990s – invested $40 million in the $2.8 billion IPO of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd, according to a report from Forbes. Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd is expected to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on December 15, where it plans to sell 1.05...

Gold likely to rally into New Year 2012

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Looking forward to 2012 it looks as though we are going to see some major changes unfold globally that will change the way we do things live our lives. Unfortunately its a very negative outlook but I do have hope that something will be done to perserve are somewhat normal lifestyles. I’m not one to talk doom and gloom, there are enough of those guys out there already so lets stick with the charts and focus on what is unfolding now in the present and how to take advantage of it… Here is my positive out look for gold and what I feel is likely to unfold near term. If the dollar continues its rally and breaks out it could actually put some pressure on gold. I know gold is a safe haven so I do expect it to hold up, but a strong dollar will neutralize a lot of the buying in gold in my opinion. Base on the chart and history, Gold likely to rally into New Year 2012

Malaysia Retail Gold Price Still Hold On RM197/g

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After a week of price up down, retail gold price in Malaysia did not change, still hold on RM197/g for 916 Gold. This week will see Euro and US to simulate the market with any plan and all the plan near more money flow into market so money will be print, share will go high as windows dressing and food price will fly sky high.

China’s efforts to encourage gold investment among its citizens have been particularly successful

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China’s efforts to encourage gold investment among its citizens have been particularly successful over the past year. Data from the Hong Kong government showed that China mainland imported approximately 140 tonnes of gold via Hong Kong between July and September 2011, above the 120 tonnes imported during the entire year of 2010, according to a report by Mineweb. Furthermore, the data revealed that gold purchases in China via Hong Kong reached a record 56.9 tonnes in the month of September, a 600% increase on a year-over-year basis. The report also noted that “China has been encouraging its citizens to buy and hold physical gold, either in the form of jewellery, coins or bars. The Asian country also had widened the number of banks allowed to import gold and has been encouraging more gold investment through new exchanges and yuan denominated products. On June 28, China opened its first precious metals spot exchange.” Additional highlights from the report includ...

Gold - extended its gains to $1,758 per ounce after the release of the November non-farm payrolls data

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The gold price added to its gains Friday following the latest U.S. jobs data. The price of gold was modestly higher prior to the report, but extended its gains to $1,758 per ounce after the release of the November non-farm payrolls data. At 120,000, the report came in slightly below the 125,000 consensus estimate among economists. However, the October and September reports were revised higher by a combined 72,000, and the unemployment rate dropped from 9.0% to 8.6% – its lowest level since March 2009. U.S. equity market futures climbed in addition to the gold price following the jobs report , with the S&P 500 contract up 1.3% at 1,259.90. Gold shares held steady in concert with the price of gold, as the AMEX Gold Bugs Index (HUI) closed lower by 0.10 points at 584.68. Barrick Gold (ABX) and Goldcorp (GG), the sector’s two largest components, fell 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively. One notable gold producer moving higher was IAMGOLD(IAG), which advanced 1.1% to $20.41 per...

Non-farm payrolls data misses expectations the gold price would likely stand to benefit

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The gold price held steady Thursday, trading up $1.90 at $1,748 per ounce. Gold prices showed a muted response to the news that jobless claims climbed by 6,000 to 402,000 – a figure slightly worse than market expectations. The gold climbed $31.15, or 1.8%, yesterday after the world’s leading central banks announced coordinated liquidity measures to aid the European financial system. In doing so, the gold price finished the month of November higher by 1.9% and extended its gain in 2011 to 22.9%. Central banks from across the globe – including the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and others – agreed to lower the cost of liquidity swaps in order to provide the European banking system with easier access to U.S. dollars. Many banks in Europe have been hit particularly hard by the sovereign debt crisis, and these measures were intended to “ease strains in financial markets,” according to a joint statement by the central banks. The enhanced liquidity measures ...

Gold price spiked higher Thursday morning following the news that the Federal Reserve cut the cost of emergency dollar funding for European banks

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The gold price spiked higher Thursday morning following the news that the Federal Reserve cut the cost of emergency dollar funding for European banks. Gold prices climbed $25.75 to $1,748 per ounce amid a coordinated effort on the part of the world’s central banks to make dollars more easily available. The Federal Reserve, in conjunction with the European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada, and Swiss National Bank is seeking to boost liquidity and calm fears that the sovereign debt crisis is morphing into a 2008-style financial collapse. S&P 500 stock futures climbed 34.30 to 1230.80 and oil prices moved back above $100 to $101.32 per barrel. Analysts at Nomura later wrote in a note to clients that Yellen’s comments suggested the Bernanke-led Federal Reserve is likely to expand its set of accommodative monetary policies in the coming months. The firm cautioned, however, that it does not expect the Fed to launch QE3 at the upcoming FOMC meeting on D...