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Showing posts from May, 2012

Weakness in the price of gold was fueled by safe haven buying in the U.S. dollar

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The gold price sunk $19.01, or 1.2%, to $1,537.29 per ounce Wednesday morning as European sovereign debt concerns continued to weigh on financial markets.  Weakness in the price of gold was also fueled by safe haven buying in the U.S. dollar, which reached its highest level since September 2010 against a composite of foreign currencies.  The euro continued to slide against the dollar as well, by as much as 0.8% this morning to 1.2408 – its lowest reading since late June of 2010. Investors continued to focus on the political and financial turmoil in Greece and Spain on Wednesday, reflected by strains in their respective financial markets.  The yield on the ten-year Spanish government bond climbed to 6.690%, within shouting distance of its 6.779% all-time high from November of last year.  The Spanish stock market also plunged to a fresh nine-year low amid speculation that the nation will follow in the footsteps of Greece and Ireland in needing an international bailout.

Gold price turned sharply lower with disappointing U.S. economic data continued!?

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The gold price turned sharply lower in mid-day trading on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar surged higher against a basket of foreign currencies. COMEX gold futures sunk from above $1,580 to as low as $1,553 per ounce. U.S. equity markets moved higher, however, on the heels of a broad-based rally in European markets on Tuesday.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) climbed 112.50 points, or 0.9%, to 12,567.33 while the S&P 500 Index added 9.77 points, or 0.7%, to 1,327.59.  Investor risk aversion nonetheless held steady, with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) oscillating between gains and losses near 21.76. The recent trend of disappointing U.S. economic data continued this morning with the latest data on the housing market.  The Case-Shiller index fell 2.6% on a year-over-year basis in March, which matched the consensus estimate among economists.  However, the home price measure also reached its lowest level since 2002 and reminded investors of the considerable headwin

gold has become increasingly undervalued relative to where we see fair value: $1,640

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The gold price have started the week on the front foot, helped initially by a stronger Euro but also by firmer Asian and European equity markets after the latest Greek polls suggested that pro-bailout parties would garner enough votes to form a government. Turnover remains rather thin however, owing to the US Memorial Day holiday. While Greece looks a bit more stable, albeit only thanks to one opinion poll taken 3 weeks ahead of the election, Spain continues to sink into the mire with the deteriorating BFA-Bankia situation the most visible of the country’s many problems. The freefall in net speculative length finally ended, although the gains of the past week were meagre — only 10.2 tonnes, compared to the 140.0 tonnes lost in the previous two weeks. The net improvement was the result of 21.0 tonnes added to speculative longs. Casting a shadow on this improvement was the 10.8 tonnes added to shorts — marking the third successive week of increase. Net speculative length is only marg

Increase in physical buying as gold dips towards $1,550

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Gold fared pretty well during the early part of last week. However, as US trading commenced, another bout of euro weakness (and the consequent dollar strength) took prices lower, erasing the gains of the earlier sessions. The selling eased off around the $1,550 mark, which is proving to be a significant support level during the past few weeks. This point of support we feel has much to do with the increase in physical buying we’ve observed over the past few days as gold dips towards $1,550. While Indian demand has been lower than normal, overall, we continue to see decent buying interest from the rest of Asia, especially South East Asia. Our Standard Bank Gold Physical Flow Index (GPFI) remains positive and has recently pushed significantly higher as buying interest returned. Gold support is at $1,550 and $1,537. Resistance is $1,578 and $1,592.

Many central banks around the world continued to add to their gold holdings

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Many central banks around the world continued to add to their gold holdings in recent months, according to data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The largest increase was by the Philippines, which raised its gold holdings by 1.03 million ounces to 6.245 million in March.  This represented the biggest reported increase in a nation’s gold reserves since Mexico purchased 2.5 million ounces in March of 2011. Furthermore, it marked the seventh consecutive month in which The Philippines added to its gold reserves. Mexico was the second largest buyer of gold in April, as it purchased 94,000 ounces to bring its total to 4.04 million. Other substantial purchases were made by Turkey, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, and Sri Lanka. Notably, the countries that have added the most to their gold reserves in recent years have relatively small economies and have not engaged in unprecedented quantitative easing measures.  This suggests that these nations are seeking to protect themsel

Greek exit, while most likely fuelling considerable physical gold demand in Europe

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The gold price tumbled $21.33, or 1.4%, to $1,545.09 per ounce Wednesday morning amid widespread liquidation on Wall Street.  The spot price of gold moved modestly lower alongside other commodities in overnight trading, but later extended its losses as the U.S. dollar surged higher against a composite of foreign currencies. The gold price sell-off was accompanied by particular weakness the euro, which fell 0.8% to 1.2584 against the dollar ahead of a key euro zone meeting.  With the decline, the euro reached its lowest level against the dollar since July 2010, during the depths of an earlier phase of the European sovereign debt crisis. Later today, European policymakers will hold an informal summit to consider proposals to improve economic growth, including the possibility of euro-zone bonds.  However, officials in Germany and France remain divided over various policy measures, and the looming Greek election on June 17 is likely to continue to weigh on the global ec

Sovereign debt crisis in Europe is likely to continue to be a primary driver for gold prices

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Gold prices oscillated between gains and losses while the U.S. dollar held firm Monday morning.  The spot price of gold climbed to $1,600.30 per ounce in overnight trading, but slid back toward $1,590 as U.S. financial markets opened. Since falling last Wednesday to $1,526.87 per ounce – its lowest level since December 29, 2011 – the gold price has now rebounded over 4.0%.  Furthermore, on a year-to-date basis the price of gold returned to positive territory, by 1.7%, after its best two-day advance last Thursday and Friday since October of 2011.  However, the yellow metal is coming off of three consecutive monthly declines for the first time since 2001, which has left many strategists cautious on gold going forward. Analysts at UBS wrote in a recent note to clients that “To see a return of gold reacting positively to macro stresses is indeed refreshing, but it is still far too early to make any firm conclusions from here that gold has indeed turned the corner…Momentum

Gold prices continued their recent resurgence on Friday with a $15.50, or 1.0%, advance to $1,590.10 per ounce

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Gold prices continued their recent resurgence on Friday with a $15.50, or 1.0%, advance to $1,590.10 per ounce.  Since reaching a four and a half month low of $1,526.87 just two days ago, the spot price of gold has surged higher despite ongoing strength in the U.S. dollar.  In doing so, the gold price returned to positive territory on a year-to-date basis, by 1.7%. Analysts at UBS wrote in a note to clients that “Yesterday, gold defied a stronger dollar, weaker equities, and another raft of negative EU headlines (to rise). It felt like the gold market of yesteryears.”  The firm went on to say that “To see a return of gold reacting positively to macro stresses is indeed refreshing, but it is still far too early to make any firm conclusions from here that gold has indeed turned the corner.  Momentum will be key, and follow-through buying will have to kick in to encourage investors to jump in.” Nick Moore, a commodity analyst at Royal Bank of Scotland, stated on Thur

More upside than downside risk for gold at the moment

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Gold continued to surge higher in mid-day trading on Thursday, as the spot price climbed $38.93, or 2.5%, to $1,578.85 per ounce.  In doing so, the yellow metal was on pace for its best day since a 2.7% rise on January 25, 2012. The rally in gold was fueled by several worse than expected U.S. economic reports – including Weekly Jobless Claims, the Philadelphia Fed Index, and Leading Economic Indicators. Commenting on the strength in gold, Afshin Nabavi – head of trading at MKS Finance – stated in a Reuters report that ”Since yesterday we have seen more interest come through from physical buyers…because prices have come down substantially.” “But there is more upside than downside risk for gold at the moment as the political situation is very jittery with tension in Iran and economic problems especially in the euro zone,” Nabavi added. “People will want to buy physical gold again. Those who went out since December are now waiting for prices to stabilize before getti

Central bank could launch a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) if the U.S. economy worsens

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The gold price bounced back from overnight losses on Wednesday alongside European and U.S. financial markets.  The spot price of gold fell as much as $16.38 to $1,526.50 per ounce in overnight trading – its lowest level since December 29, 2011 – before rebounding into positive territory by $6.67 at $1,549.55.  The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), a proxy for the gold price and the world’s largest gold ETF, advanced $0.89 to $150.63 per share. Greece's feared new elections and possible withdrawal from the euro have markets moiled and sweating. What do they do when they're worried? They run to US dollars, which they see as "safety." For me, I see that as escaping a lion by running into a bear's den -- with the bear inside. I reckon they'll discover that.  Now is on month of May and high gold demand season is on Oct so now is a good time to buy in gold. Yesterday US time release of the latest Fed minutes – a recap of the most recent FOMC meeting – indicated

For gold, there is sustained and strong physical buying coming into the market from the Far East

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The fallout in gold (and most other asset classes) continued yesterday, with a strengthening dollar weighing heavily on the complex. The liquidation continued on Asian metal exchanges, with arbitrage selling the major theme. Japanese remained net sellers on both the physical and investment fronts. This morning, we had better-than-expected German GDP data (+1.7% y/y, compared to a consensus of +0.9% y/y) which curbed the euro sell off and helpedgold price gain some ground. Eurozone economic activity figures were also better than expected, showing that the region’s economy did not contract (zero y/y growth was recorded). However, the support for the euro already shows signs of fading, which is again seeing gold price wobble. For gold, there is sustained and strong physical buying coming into the market from the Far East, which should see the metal hold the $1,550 level. Later today we have some US data flow which if disappointing could prompt a turnaround for markets on increased e

ETF have turned net buyers of Gold

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Net speculative length for COMEX gold dropped dramatically, surrendering 84.9 tonnes this past week. The change in the net position was largely the result of speculative shorts being added (51.3 tonnes, the strongest increase of the last 12 months), with the 33.6 tonnes unwound from longs also contributing significantly to the overall deterioration. Net speculative length (at 388.9 tonnes) appears decidedly weak compared to historical norms (the 5-year average is 611.7 tonnes), signalling a continued lack of confidence. What is more disconcerting is that while investors have over the past few weeks appeared cautious of running too short on gold, this fear seems to have evaporated. ETFs, however, have turned net buyers, for the first time in four weeks, with 2.0 tonnes of gold bought over the past week. The mild increase is hardly an indication of investor confidence — ETFs have not completely shrugged off their bearish view on gold. Despite current investor positioning, we believe th

Gold seems to be currently trading more as a risky asset than a safe haven

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The gold price declined on Friday alongside the broader financial markets as the U.S. dollar held firm in morning trading.  The spot price of gold fell to a fresh 4-month low of $1,571.20 per ounce in overnight trading, but pared its loss to trade down by $10.56, or 0.7%, at $1,583.74. Commenting on the gold price, Anne-Laure Tremblay – a precious metals strategist at BNP Paribas – stated that “Gold seems to be currently trading more as a risky asset than a safe haven.  While the U.S. dollar has gained on the back of higher risk aversion, gold was sold off.”  She added that “The decline is likely a consequence of liquidation in the paper market rather than lack of interest on the physical side.”

Political risk in Europe is doing anything positive for gold prices

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The gold price held firm Thursday morning near $1,597 per ounce amid modest weakness in the U.S. dollar and a rebound in the broader financial markets.  The price of gold clung to a slight gain after weekly U.S. jobless claims came in at 367,000 – in-line with the consensus estimate among economists. Commenting on the outlook for the price of gold, Nic Brown – Natixis head of commodity research – stated that “It’s not as though the escalation of the political risk in Europe is doing anything positive for gold prices at all, and this is totally different to how we were between 2008 and 2010, when all the correlations were totally reversed and the weakening of the euro actually led to a strengthening in the gold price.” Brown went on to say that “This very much suggests that we are not getting demand for gold from European investors. The dynamic is purely from the impact of the crisis on to the FX market and from that directly on to the gold price.”

The sell-off in the gold price was driven by escalating euro zone sovereign debt concerns

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Gold prices continued to slide on Wednesday, by $21.04, or 1.3%, to $1,585.95 per ounce.  The sell-off in the gold price was driven by escalating euro zone sovereign debt concerns, which put considerable pressure on financial markets in Asia, Europe, and North America. Commenting on the relationship between the currency markets and the gold price, Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Lewis wrote in a recent note to clients that “It is a much more hazardous environment (for gold) at the moment because of the downside risks to euro/dollar.” However, Lewis added that “One of the supportive factors (is) we’ve already seen quite a dramatic scaling-back in speculative length in gold over the last few months, so that might reduce the positioning risk for the market, but it is definitely going to be an environment where gold is going to struggle and the correlation (of gold to the euro/dollar rate) is going to cause quite substantial headwinds.” One item that could support gold pric

China Imports Gold Up 587% in 1Q2012

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While the price of gold has not performed particularly well since reaching its $1,923 all-time high in September 2011, this has not deterred Chinese citizens from accumulating the yellow metal. The Census and Statistics Department of the Hong Kong government reported that during the first quarter of 2012, imports of gold from Hong Kong to China were 135,529 kilograms (135.53 metric tons) – a 587% increase over the 19,729 kilograms imported from January through March of 2011 – according to Bloomberg . The story went on to say that “Demand has climbed in the world’s second-largest economy as rising incomes and curbs on property speculation boosted purchases. China may become the biggest user annually this year, according to a forecast from the producer-funded World Gold Council. Last year, total Indian demand including for jewelry and investment was 933.4 tons to China’s 769.8 tons.” Nick Trevethan, senior commodities strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Grou

Barclays Sees “Sideways Chop” for Gold, Then 2nd Half Rebound

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The gold price dipped Monday morning, by $3.29 to $1,639.60 per ounce, as the U.S. dollar advanced modestly in the aftermath of elections in France and Greece.  The price of gold held in a narrow range in overnight trading despite substantial volatility in financial markets across the globe.  Stocks and cyclical commodities initially came under heavy selling pressure after French and Greek election results raised concerns that each nation will not adhere to various austerity measures aimed at alleviating the euro zone sovereign debt crisis. Commenting on the jobs data, PIMCO CEO Mohamed El-Erian stated that “Data point to sluggish job growth, declining labor market participation and for those employed, stagnant purchasing power.  Consumption, as a growth engine, is less dynamic at a time when headwinds from Europe and a potential fiscal cliff are still material.” With gold futures continuing to languish near the lower end of the $1,620-$1,700 range they have occupied

Gold price had continues drop since hits sky high at USD1,900 per oz

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Gold price had continues drop since hits sky high at USD1,900 per oz. US and Europe continues sale out they gold to manipulate the market price so that the Gold price will not hits too high. Big buyer in Asia, India and China had slow down since begin of this year had give big impact to gold price. However, base on the chart gold price may hold on USD1,600 per oz. Likely this level will be broken due to money printing on Euro and USD. Paper gold may be manipulate but physical gold will not.

Gold price turned higher after the latest U.S. jobs data came in below expectations

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The gold price turned higher Friday morning, by $4.81 to $1,642.45 per ounce, after the latest U.S. jobs data came in below expectations.  The price of gold fell to as low as $1,626.93 in overnight trading, but rebounded after the April non-farm payrolls report showed job additions of 115,000 – well short of the 160,000 figure economists were expecting. Randgold Resources (GOLD) was the latest large-cap gold producer to miss analysts’ estimates.  The Company reported quarterly adjusted earnings per share of $1.01 – well beneath the $1.11 median forecast among analysts.  Royal Gold (RGLD), one of the world’s largest precious metals royalty companies, also announced worse than expected earnings results.  Shares of GOLD and RGLD finished the day down by 5.1% and 3.1%, respectively. Commenting on the recent economic data and the potential impact on the gold price, Saxo Bank vice president Ole Hansen stated that “The focus for the next 24 hours will be the jobless report tom

Gold price tumbled $17.42, or 1.1%, to $1,636.89 per ounce

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The gold price tumbled $17.42, or 1.1%, to $1,636.89 per ounce on Thursday amid better than expected U.S. economic data and the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy meeting.  The price of gold extended its decline after weekly U.S. jobless claims came in at 365,000 – below the 379,000 level economists were expecting.  Silver dropped alongside the gold price, by $0.37, or 1.2%, to $30.32 per ounce. While the price of gold has generally responded favorably to worse than expected U.S. economic data in recent years, yesterday the yellow metal showed a muted – albeit mildly negative – reaction to the ADP data.  Commenting on the implications of the employment report, Paul Ashworth – chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics – contended that Friday’s non-farm payroll data could also come in below economists’ estimates. “Obviously, the weak ADP reading means that there are now clear downside risks to our estimate that the official nonfarm payroll employment figures

Sharp decline in demand for gold from Indian jewelers

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The gold price relinquished its modest gain Tuesday morning after a better than expected economic report on manufacturing activity in the U.S.  The price of gold climbed to as high as $1,672.12 per ounce in overnight trading but subsequently dropped to $1,661.14 after the April ISM index came in at 54.8 – above the 53.3 level markets were expecting. Despite yesterday’s slight uptick in the gold price, the yellow metal finished the month of April fractionally lower, by $2.79, or 0.2%.  In doing so, the spot price of gold dropped for the third consecutive month – a development it had avoided since January through March of 2001.   However, on a year-to-date basis it remains higher by 6.6% as it looks to post its 12th straight annual gain. The gold price was the recipient of a headwind from HSBC on Monday, after the firm lowered its average gold price forecast in 2012 to $1,760 from $1,850 per ounce and in 2013 to $1,775 from $1,790.  James Steel, the firm’s Chief Commodit

Goldman also reiterated its gold price target of $1,840 per ounce

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The gold price fell $3.22, or 0.2%, to $1,659.38 per ounce Monday morning as the U.S. dollar held firm against a basket of foreign currencies.  The price of gold climbed to as high as $1,666 in overnight trading, but turned sharply lower to $1,645 after the U.S. Commerce Department reported that personal spending rose at 0.3% in March – below the 0.5% consensus estimate among economists.  While the gold price normally benefits from disappointing economic data, today the yellow metal retreated alongside the broader commodities complex. Analysts at Goldman Sachs echoed Bank of America’s cautious economic outlook in a recent note to clients and discussed the positive implications for the gold price.  The firm wrote it expects the price of gold to resume its ascent “as subdued US growth reduces the market’s expectations of real rates and perhaps, most importantly and counter to much of the current market feeling, suggests that the anticipated North American growth slowdown