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Showing posts from August, 2012

Gold price added to its losses after U.S. Pending Home Sales for July showed a 2.4% increase

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Gold prices remained in consolidation mode on Wednesday as investors continued to tread lightly ahead of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech on Friday in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.  The spot gold price held near $1,670 per ounce in overnight trading, but fell toward $1,660 amid strength in the U.S. dollar after a better than expected report on the U.S. housing market. As trading progressed on Wednesday, the gold price added to its losses after U.S. Pending Home Sales for July showed a 2.4% increase – well above the 1.0% gain economists were forecasting.  Coupled with yesterday’s encouraging Case-Shiller housing price data, today’s report further affirmed the notion that the U.S. economy continues to grow, albeit modestly.  Furthermore, the data provides the Federal Reserve with additional evidence arguing against the need for another round of monetary stimulus. Looking ahead for the Fed and the price of gold, Commerzbank analyst Daniel Briesemann wrote in ...

(QE3) could be forthcoming in the months ahead.

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The gold price stabilized near $1,672 per ounce on Monday amid a relatively quiet start to the week this morning. Gold prices held in a range between $1,670 and $1,680 in overnight trading while the U.S. Dollar Index traded near the flatline at 81.570.  Today’s consolidation in the price of gold followed last week’s 3.3% advance that sent the yellow metal to its highest level since mid April. The recent strength in the gold price was driven in large part by rising expectations of further monetary stimulus.  Last week, the latest Fed minutes – as well as a letter by Ben Bernanke to Congressman Darrell Issa – provided a dovish tone indicating that a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) could be forthcoming in the months ahead. Those developments arrived ahead of ahead of the Fed’s Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming later this week.  There, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi will each deliver speec...

Gold is in a very strong bull market

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The gold price took a breather Friday morning following seven straight sessions of gains that took the yellow metal to its highest level since April 13th.  The price of gold held in a tight range between $1,665 and $1,675 per ounce in overnight trading and showed a muted response to the latest batch of U.S. economic data.  The U.S. dollar, which declined for the past several days, rebounded somewhat on Friday and helped keep a lid on the gold price. Gold prices held firm this morning despite a report showing that U.S. durable goods order rose 4.2% in July, well above the 2.5% consensus estimate among economists.  However, excluding transportation, orders declined by 0.4%, whereas economists were expecting a 0.5% gain. The mixed data underscored the conundrum the Federal Reserve is facing at the present time regarding further quantitative easing.  While the Fed minutes earlier this week suggested that Chairman Bernanke and his fellow central bankers...

Gold price received a lift from the latest Fed minutes

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The gold price continued to rally on Thursday, reaching another multi-month high in the aftermath of yesterday’s Fed minutes.  The spot price of gold climbed $17.23, or 1.0%, to $1,672.28 per ounce – its highest level since April 13th – as the Federal Reserve reiterated its dovish stance on monetary policy.  Today’s gold price strength coincided with gains in other precious metals and commodities and modest weakness in the U.S. dollar. Yesterday afternoon, the gold price received a lift from the latest Fed minutes, a recap of last month’s FOMC meeting.  The Ben Bernanke-led central bank noted that “Many members judged that additional monetary accommodation would likely be warranted fairly soon unless incoming information pointed to a substantial and sustainable strengthening in the pace of the economic recovery.”  The minutes also stated that many central bankers believe that there is “substantial capacity” for additional asset purchases, i.e. quant...

The spot price of gold jumped as much as $21.90, or 1.4%, to $1,643.42 per ounce

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The gold price climbed to a three and a half month high on Tuesday amid weakness in the U.S. dollar and a broad-based rally on Wall Street.  The spot price of gold jumped as much as $21.90, or 1.4%, to $1,643.42 per ounce, its highest level since May 6th.  Furthermore, the gold price broke out of the $1,560-$1,630 trading range it had occupied for most of the past three months. Commenting on the gold price’s advance, VTB Capital analyst Andrey Kryuchenkov asserted that “A break above $1,630 is very significant, as we breach the June-July and early August range.  Buy orders were triggered, with the dollar index also slipping below support at 82, or early July lows.” U.S. markets followed their European counterparts higher, where several benchmark equity indices touched 13-month highs ahead of two key policymaker meetings this week.  Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, head of the euro-area group of finance ministers, will meet with Greek Pr...

Gold price is on pace to settle between $1,600 and $1,625 for the tenth consecutive trading day

The gold price continued to consolidate on Thursday amid yet another relatively quiet day for financial markets.  The spot price of gold held near unchanged at $1,605 per ounce despite modest weakness in the U.S. dollar.  With today’s tepid movement, the gold price is on pace to settle between $1,600 and $1,625 for the tenth consecutive trading day – suggesting that the dog days of summer have held true to form lately. Still, many in the investment world believe that Ben Bernanke and his fellow central bankers will launch a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) in the months ahead because the U.S. economy remains in a rather fragile state.  Bayram Dincer, an analyst at LGT Capital Management, stated that “My general view is that for the time being major central banks will let go of the mandate of price stability in favour of spurring growth figures. This means that the central banks in an explicit or implicit inflation targeting regime will try to anchor ...

Gold prices recovered from earlier losses on Wednesday after a set of disappointing U.S. economic reports

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Gold prices recovered from earlier losses on Wednesday after a set of disappointing U.S. economic reports renewed speculation that further monetary easing may be forthcoming.  The spot price of gold fell to $1,592.42 per ounce in overnight trading, but bounced back above the $1,600 level after data on manufacturing and inflation came in below economists’ estimates.  The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), the world’s most liquid gold price proxy, inched up by $0.40, or 0.3%, to $155.53 per share in morning trading The gold price also received a boost from investor data released after financial markets closed yesterday.  According to their latest 13-F filings, legendary investors George Soros and John Paulson each raised their stake in the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) during the second quarter of this year. Soros Fund Management more than doubled its investment in the GLD, while Paulson & Co. increased its holdings by 26% to 21.8 million shares.  In doing so, Paul...

Gold price turned sharply lower on Tuesday after a better than expected report on U.S. retail sales

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The gold price turned sharply lower on Tuesday after a better than expected report on U.S. retail sales dampened hopes that the Federal Reserve will launch additional monetary stimulus in the near future.  The spot price of gold tumbled from $1,616 to as low as $1,594 per ounce following the economic data, but subsequently bounced back above the $1,600 level. Following up on this month’s encouraging non-farm payrolls data, U.S. retail sales for July increased by 0.8% – well above the 0.3% consensus estimate among economists.  In addition, the Producer Price Index (PPI) – a key measure of inflation – rose 0.3% last month, slightly above the 0.2% level economists were expecting. Millan Mulraine, an economist at TD Securities, noted that “The tone of this report was unambiguously encouraging, as it points to a meaningful improvement in household spending activity after stagnating for three consecutive month.” The combination of today’s two positive reports ...

Internet Blackout Day (Stop 114A)

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We’re going to get it (QE)

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The gold price turned modestly higher on Friday as the U.S. dollar relinquished its earlier gains against a basket of foreign currencies.  The spot price of gold fell to as low as $1,606.87 per ounce in overnight trading, but later climbed to $1,629.65 – representing a gain of $11.49, or 0.7%.  With today’s gain, the gold price looked to close at its highest level since May 7th. Peter Schiff, head of Euro Pacific Capital and a long-time gold bull, discussed his latest thoughts on the gold price in an interview this week with King World News.  “I think that what’s going on is that most mainstream investors, who invest other people’s money, see gold as a bubble and are waiting for it to burst,” Schiff contended.  “People think the price of gold is going to go down.  They think the Fed is done easing.” “Everybody is waiting for the other shoe to drop for the price of gold,” Schiff added.  “If you look at the price of gold stocks, p/e mult...

Gold seems to have gotten a foothold above the $1,600 level and seems to be relatively stable

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Gold prices continued to consolidate for a third straight session on Thursday amid another relatively quiet day on Wall Street.  The spot price of gold traded in a narrow range between $1,612 and $1,621 in overnight trading while the U.S. dollar advanced 0.3% against a composite of the world’s most-traded currencies.  The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), the largest gold ETF, inched higher by $0.17 to $156.65 per share. The markets showed a muted response this morning to economic data out of China, which showed that the nation’s consumer inflation rate fell to 1.8% in July, its lowest level since January 2010.  The declining inflation rate fueled speculation that the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) could announce further interest rate cuts to help boost the nation’s slowing economy. VTB Capital analyst Andrey Kryuchenkov commented that “Slowing output (in China), etc, suggest more stimulus ahead, which is supportive to the broader market.  As far as gold is c...

Only a matter of time before policymakers are forced to fire up the printing presses

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The gold price advanced by $8.12, or 0.5%, to $1,611.45 per ounce on Monday amid modest weakness in the U.S. dollar and a broad-based rally in financial markets.  The price of gold built on its gains from last Friday, which had snapped a four-session losing streak for the yellow metal.  However, the gold price remains well within the $1,560 – $1,630 range that it has occupied since early May. Last week the gold price endured a bevy of headwinds but displayed a considerable amount of resiliency.  The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) each chose to not announce any new stimulus measures at their respective monetary policy meetings, while the monthly U.S. employment data came in well ahead of economists’ estimates. Still, the price of gold finished back above $1,600 per ounce amid speculation that it is only a matter of time before policymakers are forced to fire up the printing presses once again to combat the escalating risks of the E...

USD1,900 Gold by Year-End, Says HSBC

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Since reaching an all-time record high of $1,923 per ounce last September, the price of gold has not fared particularly well.  The yellow metal has languished for most of 2012 amid considerable strength in the U.S. dollar, the ongoing European sovereign debt crisis, and the lack of further quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve. Nonetheless, gold is due for a substantial rebound in the months ahead, according to analysts at HSBC.  In a report published this morning, the firm forecasted that the yellow metal will climb to $1,900 per ounce by year-end. “The big four central banks have printed around $9 trillion during the current crisis, roughly equivalent to the total value of gold ever mined…[but] despite this long-standing pedigree as a safe haven, gold has noticeably failed to rally in the present economic turmoil,” HSBC wrote (via CNBC ).  “Periods of heightened euro zone concerns have typically led to equity market sell-offs, triggering margin...

Analysts at UBS also offered a constructive stance on the gold price

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The gold price stabilized near $1,600 per ounce on Thursday as financial markets digested the outcome of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) meeting and press conference.  The price of gold initially fell toward $1,590 following the ECB’s decision to not launch any new stimulus measures.  However, the gold price later bounced back to $1,600 as ECB President Mario Draghi stated that the central bank stands ready to buy Spanish and Italian bonds, although no immediate action was undertaken. The lack of action by the ECB mirrored that of the Federal Reserve yesterday, which did launch a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) or any other new monetary stimulus programs.  The Ben Bernanke-led central bank did present a more dovish tone in its statement, however, noting that the outlook for the U.S. economy has worsened in recent months.  Furthermore, the Fed noted that it “will provide additional accommodation as needed to promote a stronger economic rec...

UBS raised its one-month gold price target to $1,700 from $1,550, and its three-month estimate to $1,750 from $1,600 per ounce

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The gold price continued to consolidate after last week’s gains on Tuesday, as it hovered near $1,625 per ounce in morning trading.  The spot price of gold rose to an intra-day high of $1,631.38 overnight, but pared its gains as the U.S. dollar rebounded against a basket of foreign currencies.  Nonetheless, the spot gold price remains higher by 1.6% in July and is on pace for its first set of consecutive monthly gains since last October and November. The broader financial markets stabilized as well on Tuesday, as equities and commodities await the outcome of central bank meetings in the U.S. and Europe later this week.  While the majority of strategists and economists do not anticipate that the Federal Reserve to launch a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) at this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, expectations have increased considerably for next month’s session. This morning, gold strategists at UBS raised their short-term go...