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Showing posts from October, 2012

Bank of Japan (BOJ) - expand its quantitative easing program by ¥11 trillion

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The price of gold continued to hold near $1,710 per ounce for the second straight day as U.S. financial markets remained closed due to the impact of Hurricane Sandy.  The spot gold price did advance, however, from an overnight low of $1,705.34 to as high as $1,715.69 earlier this morning before parings its gains. The rise in gold prices was driven in part by the Bank of Japan (BOJ), which announced plans to expand its quantitative easing program by ¥11 trillion, or approximately $139 billion, to ¥91 trillion.  The increase was roughly in-line with the level economists were expecting. The Japanese central bank will also establish a new loan program to provide banks with unlimited amounts of cheap, long-term funding.  In addition, the BOJ took a page out of the Federal Reserve’s book by committing to maintain its easing measures until inflation in Japan climbed to at least 1.0%. BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa noted that escalating risks of a global recessio...

Gold prices could remain under “modest” pressure in the near term

The gold price stabilized near $1,710 per ounce Wednesday morning as investors awaited the outcome of today’s Federal Reserve meeting. Gold price have come under considerable pressure over the past two weeks amid broad-based weakness in financial markets and a rebound in the U.S. dollar.  On a month-to-date basis, the spot price of gold is now down by 3.8% and on pace to snap a four-month winning streak. As for the Federal Reserve, while last month’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting marked the start of the open-ended third round of quantitative easing (QE3), today’s session is expected to contain far less significant announcements.  Instead, most market strategists are anticipating that Chairman Ben Bernanke and his fellow central bankers will focus more on their forecasts for the U.S. economy given that QE3 is only in its early stages. Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies, wrote in a note to clients yesterday that “I think they’re ...

eakness in gold prices was fueled by a rally in the U.S. dollar

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The price of gold came under further selling pressure on Tuesday amid widespread liquidation on Wall Street.  The spot gold price fell as much as $28.29, or 1.3%, to $1,706.84 per ounce this morning, its lowest level since September 7th.  Weakness in gold prices was fueled by a rally in the U.S. dollar – which climbed 0.4% against a basket of foreign currencies – and broad-based selling in commodities. Commenting on today’s gold price sell-off, Deutsche Bank analyst Daniel Brebner stated that “You’ve had QE priced in and what we’re seeing now is a bit of a retracement following that. We have a pause in monetary policy action; it’s very unlikely we’re going to see anything in the U.S. and China while there is political transition.” Brebner went on to say that “Conditions economically remain tenuous… there are concerns with respect to growth, and therefore the potential for deflation is starting to pick up a little bit. This is really causal to gold’s decline.”...

The spot price of gold fell to an overnight low of $1,714.73 per ounce

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The gold price bounced back from earlier losses on Monday alongside the broader financial markets.  The spot price of gold fell to an overnight low of $1,714.73 per ounce, but later climbed back into positive territory by $4.63 at $1,727.12.  However, following last week’s 1.8% decline, the gold price remained near the lower end of the range it has occupied since early September. In a note to clients, Credit Suisse analyst Tom Kendall wrote that “The (gold) market was very long up at around $1,800 and we’ve seen some of the length being unwound.  I suspect more will be reducing positions and a lack of any tremendous desire to buy at this level.  The path of least resistance is still lower.” Kendall went on to say that “The market is looking for a pickup in demand from physical players in India.  It would provide support but generally speaking, given what we’ve seen so far in India I’m not sure you would expect buying on a scale that would drive ...

Improvement in Indian gold buying

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The gold price turned modestly lower on Thursday amid strength in the U.S. dollar after a plethora of global economic data. Gold prices fell as much as $9.88, or 0.6%, to $1,739.12 per ounce earlier this morning, but subsequently pared its losses. Gold prices showed a moderately negative reaction to overnight news that third quarter Chinese GDP grew by 7.4%.  While the figure was in-line with the median estimate among economists, speculation had risen that the report was going to come in worse than expected given the stretch of weak data out of China in recent months. In the U.S., weekly jobless claims rose to 388,000 – above the 360,000 level economists were expecting.  The disappointing report was tempered by two subsequent better than expected data points, as both the Philadelphia Fed Index and a report on Leading Economic Indicators came in above levels most economists were anticipating. With today’s sell-off, the spot price of gold extended its decline ...

Gold has moved in tandem to a certain degree with the euro

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Gold prices oscillated between gains and losses near $1,750 per ounce on Wednesday as the yellow metal remained in consolidation mode.  The price of gold held in a narrow range between $1,744 and $1,755 in overnight trading despite further weakness in the U.S. dollar.  The euro currency climbed 0.5% to 1.3125 against the dollar, its highest level in a month, after Moody’s rating agency chose not to downgrade Spain’s credit rating to non­investment grade status. The gold price held steady alongside the broader commodity and equity markets across the globe on Wednesday as investors continued to await a potential bailout for Spain.  While Moody’s affirmed the nation’s investment grade credit rating, speculation has grown that Spain will request financial assistance from the euro zone in the near future.  Most recently, reports surfaced that Germany is open to a possible line of credit for Spain. Commenting on the implications of the situation in Eur...

Gold Price Firm, Buy are Still There

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The gold price rebounded on Tuesday following declines in six of the past seven trading sessions as the U.S. dollar turned lower in this morning. Gold prices showed a modestly favorable response to the latest reading on U.S. inflation, as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September increased 2.0%.  The report was slightly above the 1.9% consensus estimate among economists.  However, excluding food and energy prices, to which the Federal Reserve gives more credence, the CPI met economists’ expectations of 2.0% growth. Although the gold price has retreated in recent weeks, it has advanced for four consecutive months and remains higher by 11.8% on a year-to-date basis.  Credit Suisse analyst Tobias Merath wrote in a recent note to clients that “Particularly for investors and central banks, the incentives to buy gold are still there.  Quantitative easing, low interest rates, counterparty risk concerns, all these factors are in place, and investment in...

Gold prices were pressured by strength in the U.S. dollar

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The gold price turned sharply lower on Monday as the recent weakness in precious metals carried into this week.  The spot price of gold fell as much as $20.77, or 1.2%, to $1,734.14 per ounce, its lowest level since September 13th.  Gold prices were pressured by strength in the U.S. dollar – which coincided with a better than expected report on U.S. retail sales and further sovereign debt concerns in Europe. Looking ahead, Hansen contended that the gold price needs to “Hold on to the $1,737 low in order to avoid a deeper correction at this time.  Either OMT in Europe or a weaker dollar seem to be what we are lacking at the moment, so we could see investors… take some chips off the table while they wait for a better level to re-enter.” The OMT, Outright Monetary Transactions, refers to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) bond buying program that President Mario Draghi announced last month.  While the ECB has yet to implement the program, it stands ready...

The gold price also was buoyed by ongoing sovereign debt concerns in Europe

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The gold price pared its gains on Thursday after a better than expected report on the U.S. labor market.  The price of gold climbed as much as $13.34, or 0.8%, to $1,776.54 per ounce in overnight trading, but fell back toward $1,770 after weekly jobless claims dropped to more than a four-year low. Financial markets across North America and Europe extended their gains following the weekly jobless claims data, which came in at 339,000.  In doing so, the figure fell to its lowest level since February 2008 and well below the 370,000 consensus estimate among economists. However, the U.S. Labor Department noted that one state accounted for the large majority of the improved data and cautioned that investors and economists should not read too much into only this week’s data.  This announcement helped provide support for the price of gold, which generally moves inversely to U.S. economic data due to the Federal Reserve’s monetary stimulus response to such situa...

The gold price fluctuated between gains and losses

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The gold price fluctuated between gains and losses on Wednesday as precious metals remained in consolidation mode for the third straight week.  Gold price held in a narrow range in overnight trading, between $1,760 and $1,770, amid relative stability in the U.S. dollar and broader currency markets. In comments on the recent consolidation in the gold price, Ross Norman – CEO of bullion broker Sharps Pixley – stated that “Bearing in mind where the dollar is, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see more weakness before moving higher, but generally speaking the market has moved back into the doldrums.” Norman added that “The markets are light and people are sitting on their hands trying to take a good reading of broadly what is going on. For investors to re-immerse themselves massively behind the current gold price, they are looking for clarity about where the economy is really going.” With regard to the U.S. economy, all eyes will be on the release this afternoon of the...

Gold price were supported by a report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF)

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The gold price stabilized near $1,775 per ounce on Tuesday despite further strength in the U.S. dollar.  Gold price were supported by a report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) which lowered its forecasts for global economic growth in 2012 and 2013 and highlighted an “alarmingly high” risk of a more significant slowdown.  The spot price of gold held in a narrow range between $1,773 and $1,782 in overnight trading, while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) advanced 0.3% to 79.788. The IMF’s report reduced its 2012 target of global GDP growth to 3.3% from 3.5%, and its 2013 projection to 3.6% from 3.9%.  In addition, the firm noted that its forecast implies a 15% possibility of recession in the United States in 2013, a 25% chance in Japan, and a more than 80% likelihood in the euro zone.  The IMF pointed specifically to Greece and Spain as nations where the economic challenges are most acute. In its report, the IMF cited government spending cuts, stre...

Recent sell-offs in gold have been muted by the extremely accommodative monetary policy

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The gold price was weighed down on Monday by a stronger U.S. dollar as financial markets continued to digest the impact of last Friday’s better than expected U.S. employment report.  The spot price of gold fell $12.94, or 0.7%, to an overnight low of $1,768.34 per ounce, but pared its decline this morning as it bounced back to near $1,775.  The U.S. Dollar Index advanced 0.4% to 79.612 as markets around the world moved into risk-off mode to begin the week. While the gold price advanced to an 11-month high of $1,798.03 last week, it turned sharply lower after the non-farm payrolls data showed that the U.S. unemployment rate fell to 7.8% – its lowest level since January 2009.  Although a portion of the improved jobs report was due to more workers dropping out of the labor force, the encouraging data was also the result of a better hiring environment in recent months. Nonetheless, the recent sell-offs in gold have been muted by the extremely accommodative...

Bullish for commodities like gold

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The gold price stabilized near $1,780 per ounce on Wednesday despite modest strength in the U.S. dollar and two better than expected U.S. economic reports.  The price of gold held in a tight range between $1,777 and $1,783 this morning, while the U.S. Dollar Index inched up by 0.2% to 79.859 against a basket of currencies including the euro, pound, yen and several others. The gold price held firm on Wednesday in spite of two critical data points indicating that the U.S. economy is holding up better than most expect.  The ADP Employment report for August showed job additions of 162,000, surpassing the 140,000 level economists were expecting.  The ISM non-manufacturing composite – a key measure of service activity – came in at 55.1, above the 53.4 consensus estimate among economists. Notwithstanding today’s encouraging economic data, the Federal Reserve and other central banks in the world’s most developed economies remain committed to providing monetary...

Surge in the gold price above $2,000 per ounce level is only a matter of time

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Deutsche Bank became the latest firm to raise its forecast for gold and silver prices, based in large part on the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to begin a third round of quantitative easing (QE3). The European-based bank increased its 2013 average gold target by 3% to $2,113 per ounce and its 2014 average estimate by 11.1% to $2,000 per ounce.  It also noted that the yellow metal may surpass the $2,200 at some point next year – which would bring it to within $100 of its inflation-adjusted all-time record high of approximately $2,300 per ounce. As for silver, the firm lifted its 2013 average target by 3% to $44.00 per ounce and its 2014 forecast by 11.1% to $40.00 per ounce. In the firm’s report, Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Lewis wrote that “We believe central bank action to stimulate growth, avoid deflation and reduce systemic risk is unambiguously bullish for the precious metals sector and specifically gold.” Lewis added that “While we have targeted go...

Price of gold to remain range-bound until the next batch of U.S. employment data is released later this week

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The gold price held in a relatively tight range on Tuesday, between $1,775 and $1,785 per ounce, amid a quiet open to financial markets.  While the price of gold climbed to a ten-month high of $1,794.32 yesterday, it later pared its gains as the yellow metal continued to consolidate below the $1,800 level.   Today’s stability in gold prices coincided with slight weakness in the U.S. dollar, which dipped 0.2% against a composite of the world’s most-traded currencies. Yesterday the gold price rallied after Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans emphasized the importance of the Fed’s open-ended third round of quantitative easing (QE3) until the U.S. unemployment rate declines to 7%.  Evans added that “there is scope for doing more” in terms of accommodative monetary policies, which helped propel precious metals the broader markets higher. However, the price of gold and other U.S.-dollar denominated assets gave back a portion of their gains a...

Gold climbed as much as $20.96, or 1.2%, to $1,794.32 per ounce

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The gold price began the fourth quarter of the year on a positive note amid a broad-based rally in financial markets and weakness in the U.S. dollar.  The spot price of gold climbed as much as $20.96, or 1.2%, to $1,794.32 per ounce this morning – its highest level since November 14, 2011.  Gold prices received a boost from dovish remarks by Charles Evans, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.  Evans stressed the need for the Fed’s open-ended third round of quantitative easing (QE3) until the U.S. unemployment rate drops below 7%, which is currently at 8.2%. The gold price began the final quarter of 2012 with a great deal of momentum, thanks in large part to the expansion of ultra-easy monetary policies by the world’s largest central banks.  During the prior three months, the price of gold climbed 10.9% – marking its best period since the second quarter of 2010 – after the Fed, the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of Japan each ...