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A move above $1,788 in gold would confirm a base at $1,737 and open the $1,803 range highs

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The gold price turned modestly lower on Friday, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and weakness in the broader commodities complex.  The spot price of gold fell from an overnight high of $1,785.73 per ounce to as low as $1,772.41 this morning, while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose 0.2% to 79.735.  The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), the world’s most liquid gold price proxy, droped $0.48, or 0.3%, to $171.86 per share. Today’s weakness in the gold price was tempered, however, by two worse than expected reports on the U.S. economy.  Following yesterday’s disappointing data on GDP, Durable Goods, and Pending Home Sales, this morning the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment both came in below the consensus estimate among economists. Despite today’s slight decline, the gold price remained up by 4.7% on a month-to-date basis.  Furthermore, as the third quarter of 2012 draws to a close, the yellow metal has climbed 10.8...

Euro will stay weak, the dollar will stay strong, and that’s going to cap the gold price

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The gold price bounced back on Thursday from yesterday’s sell-off alongside the broader financial markets.  On Wednesday the spot price of gold tumbled to a two-week low of $1,738.47 per ounce before paring its losses in afternoon trading.  This morning, the gold price climbed by $13.57, or 0.8%, to $1,765.17 per ounce. Today’s gold price rally was driven by a confluence of macroeconomic factors across the globe.  The yellow metal received a boost in overnight trading from speculation that the People’s Bank of China will soon announce additional monetary stimulus measures to help support the nation’s slowing economy.  In Europe, the Spanish government met to approve a 2013 austerity budget – which helped the euro currency rise 0.2% to 1.2901 against the U.S. dollar.  The greenback’s weakness in turn helped lift the price of gold. Across the Atlantic, several worse than expected economic reports affirmed the Federal Reserve’s view that the U.S...

Gold continued to head lower Wednesday morning following yesterday afternoon’s sell-off as the U.S. dollar advanced

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Gold continued to head lower Wednesday morning following yesterday afternoon’s sell-off as the U.S. dollar advanced further against a composite of the world’s most-traded currencies. Gold futures slid $15.70, or 0.9%, to $1,750.70 per ounce, their lowest level in two weeks. Silver futures fared better than the yellow metal, but still dropped by $0.16, or 0.5%, to $33.79 per ounce. Commenting on today’s gold price weakness, Saxo Bank vice president Ole Hansen stated that the decline ”Has been brewing all week following the return of dollar strength.  With activity fairly light, someone went looking for stops and found them below $1,755. With that support now removed, the true strength of the current rally is about to be tested.” “My feeling is that buyers will be lurking in the wings and this move was necessary to establish proper support following the run higher,” Hansen added. “With QE excitement disappearing fast, it is left to stand on its own feet and ...

Rebound in the U.S. Dollar

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The price of gold declined on Thursday amid weakness in the commodities complex and a stronger U.S. dollar.  After rising to near a seven-month high of $1,781.72 per ounce yesterday, the spot gold price fell by $12.32, or 0.7%, to $1,759.04 this morning.  The yellow metal’s sell-off was driven in part by a modest rise in risk aversion across financial markets and a rebound in the U.S. Dollar Index, which advanced 0.7% to 79.595. Analysts at Marex Spectron wrote in a note to clients that “The rise in gold and silver will be tempered by drops in the stock market and rises in the dollar, and if this continues then the upside is limited for the time being.”  However, the firm added that “support remains under the market and I still believe buying dips is the way forward in the longer term.” On Wednesday the gold price was unable to build on its recent gains despite the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) unexpected announcement of an expansion to its quantitative easin...

Bank of Japan (BOJ) became the latest central bank to join the money printing party

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The gold price held firm near its six-month high at $1,775 per ounce on Wednesday after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) became the latest central bank to join the money printing party that has taken hold across the globe.  The price of gold rose to an overnight high of $1,782 after the BOJ unexpectedly announced an expansion to its own quantitative easing program, but later pared its gains alongside the broader commodities complex. The recent strength in the gold price has been fueled by the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB), both of which have launched additional monetary stimulus measures to combat the risks of recession in their respective economies.  On Wednesday, the Bank of Japan announced plans to raise its own asset purchase program by 10 trillion yen (¥) – approximately $125 billion – bringing its total to ¥55 trillion. Governor Masaaki Shirakawa, head of the BOJ, noted that “Exports and output look weak, and a decline in oil prices is weigh...

Gold price stabilized near $1,770 per ounce

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The gold price stabilized near $1,770 per ounce on Monday amid a relatively quiet start to the week.  The price of gold is riding a four-week winning streak in which it reached a seven-month high of $1,780.16 last Friday.  The recent gold price rally was driven in large part by the Federal Reserve’s decision to launch an open-ended third round of quantitative easing (QE3) and extend the time frame for its near-zero interest rate policy to 2015. Looking ahead, this week contains far fewer macroeconomic catalysts likely to have a significant impact on the gold price, especially relative to the past two weeks that included the Federal Reserve’s and European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy meetings.  However, the U.S. economic calendar contains a few noteworthy reports that could affect gold prices. Data on housing starts and existing home sales for August will be released on Wednesday morning.  Thursday’s schedule includes reports on weekly jobl...

QE3 will be at a pace of $40 billion per month until such time as the U.S. labor market “improves substantially.”

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The Federal Reserve delivered a particularly dovish statement at its FOMC meeting on Thursday, as it announced an open-ended third round of quantitative easing (QE3) and extended the timeframe for its near-zero interest rate policy through at least mid-2015. The size and structure of QE3 will be at a pace of $40 billion per month until such time as the U.S. labor market “improves substantially.”  Additionally, instead of purchasing U.S. Treasuries, this time Ben Bernanke and his fellow central bankers bill buy mortgage-backed securities. “The Committee is concerned that, without further policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions,” the Fed noted.  “Furthermore, strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook.” The Federal Reserve went on to say that “If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the...