Gold Has Traded In A Very Narrow Range Between $938 And $942















Despite equities gaining Friday US Market it believe there is once again some risk aversion creeping back into the market. This is reflected in the good performance of US Treasuries since the start of the week. This could support the dollar at current levels around $1.4300 against the euro. Yesterday it was reported that almost 10% of homeowners in the US are either behind schedule on mortgage payments or in a state of foreclosure. This is high. The data for the US goes back to 1979. In this 30 year period the previous highest rate was only 6.07%. This was in 1985 and the figure reached its highs only 3 years after the end of the 1981/82 recession.

Total write downs by financial institutions since the start of the credit crises is at $1.6 trillion. This looks set to rise further. Total capital raised by institutions are at $1.3 trillion. This might also need to rise further. While higher risk might support the dollar, it should also support gold.

Since falling towards $938 yesterday, gold has traded in a very narrow range between $938 and $942. I do not expect this to continue for long. I believe the bias is for gold to break lower. Gold support is at $937 and $933, with resistance at $945 and $949. Everybody knew the US "cash-for-clunkers" program would end. However, the US indicated this could be as soon as next week.

Auto sales could be hit - so could US equities and so could commodities. This is also likely to depress PGM prices despite the news that Impala Platinum workers would strike. Base on some report from US said that support for platinum at $1,220 and resistance at $1,245. Palladium support is at $270 with resistance at $277. Silver is still struggling and believe bias for the metal remains to the downside. With copper failing to push much higher, silver’s march higher has stalled. Silver is finding support at $13.75 and $13.30, with resistance at $14.00 and $14.25.

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