Gold Is Not At All-Time Highs In Many Other Currencies

USD weakness remains a key driver of the gold price (in US dollar terms). However, when gold is denominated in other currencies, two things become apparent:
  1. Firstly, gold is not at all-time highs in many other currencies, including gold denominated in AUD, CAD, GBP and EUR (to mention only a few). In many currencies, price highs were reached in February this year.
  2. Secondly, while gold is not at all-time highs in some currencies, gold demand is rising steadily, as demonstrated by viewing gold against currencies for different periods.
While there is a clear positive correlation between dollar weakness and the gold price in dollar as expected, there is no correlation between the gold price and many other currencies. Gold has been trading at the same levels for many different values of the CAD. However, what is clear from both figures, is a clear step-change in the gold price irrespective of which currency is used. Gold is trading currently at higher levels in CAD
than it did in 2007, even though the CAD/USD exchange rate is now at similar levels than it was in 2007. Real demand for gold is rising. This is apparent from the adjacent figures.

Most of the investor expect this support to continue well into 2010 as liquidity remains ample. However, they also see downside potential for gold as we head into Q1:10 and seasonal jewellery demand declines.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Gold edges up on weaker dollar, dovish U.S. Fed policy bets

Image
 Gold edged higher on Monday, helped by a weaker dollar and expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will reiterate its dovish monetary policy stance this week. Spot gold was up by 0.1% at $1,943.58 per ounce. U.S. gold futures rose 0.1% to $1,950.10 per ounce. “Gold is firm on the basis that the Fed could adopt a further dovish message with respect to average inflation targeting,” said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK. “If you want to have a policy of average inflation targeting, you’re going to have to go into detail as to how you are going to arrive at that particular outcome.” The dollar retreated on Mond ay, bolstering gold’s appeal for investors holding other currencies, ahead of the Fed’s policy decision due on Wednesday. “If inflation forecasts remain at 2% or below, this could offer gold a tailwind as the zero-yielding metal thrives in a low-interest rate environment,” said FXTM analyst Lukman Otunuga. Market participants are also waiting
Read more

For the gold price, two outcomes are possible.

Image
For the gold price, two outcomes are possible. First is a return to or near the April low ($1,277.40). Second is a drop to a lower low, $1,240 - $1,260. Yet a third possible outcome is that the June and December lows were not a double bottom and one further drop may come. I account that the least likely, and look for a low here by the end of the week, but I'm no more'n a nacheral born durnd fool from Tennessee, so what do I know?   You'd think that an institution charged with promoting the gold industry would produce reports that at least cast the best light on gold's prospects. You'd think wrong, if you're thinking about the World Gold Council. They've been negative on gold for, oh, the last 14 years or so. Today they issued a report that contained a nugget about Chinese business using physical gold as collateral for bank credit ($40 bn worth) but they managed to tease a gloomy forecast even out of this inventive monetary use. That and bad
Read more

The price of gold advanced as high as $1,603.40 per ounc

Image
The gold price broke out to a new all-time high above $1,600 per ounce Monday morning, rising for the eleventh consecutive trading session. The price of gold advanced as high as $1,603.40 per ounce before backing off to trade just the $1,600 level. The yellow metal gained on the back of a surge in borrowing costs for Italy, the latest European nation to see its bond market come under heavy selling pressure. The lack of a deal to raise the $14.3 trillion debt ceiling also helped boost gold prices. The eleven-day rise in the gold price is the longest winning streak since January of 1980. The gold price delivered another noteworthy performance last week, climbing 3.2% on its way to a series of fresh record highs. With Monday’s advance, the gold price extended its monthly and year-to-date gains to 6.6% and 12.5%, respectively. Last week’s two-day Congressional testimony by Chairman Ben Bernanke on the economy and monetary policy revealed that the Fed remains open to the
Read more