Gold is a good safe haven

Gold extended its gains Wednesday morning, as gold price surged $30.80, or 1.7%, to $1,809.70 per ounce. The rebound in gold follows the sector’s large declines from yesterday. Monday’s weakness was fueled by considerable strength in the U.S. dollar, particularly against the euro currency. On Tuesday, however, gold and silver bounced back alongside the general commodities complex despite stabilization in the euro/dollar currency cross near 1.3670.

Dennis Gartman, the long-time commodities investor and publisher of The Gartman Letter, wrote on Monday that given strength in the U.S. dollar, commodities and equities are likely to remain under considerable selling pressure. “We have to believe that gold too shall be and remain lower,” Gartman wrote. “There’s no other course of action” for the gold price to follow, he continued.

While Gartman’s short-term bearish outlook for the gold price appeared quite prescient given yesterday’s sell-off, many other investors see escalating sovereign debt and recession concerns across Europe and the U.S. as key catalysts for higher gold prices over the longer-term. One individual to share this view is Tony Hall, whose Duet Commodities Fund Ltd. has surged 33% year-to-date. According to Bloomberg, Hall recently predicted that the gold price may reach a new all-time high of $2,200 per ounce by the end of this year.

“The fear of recession, the fear of worse economic numbers is weighing on commodities and stopping gains from fundamentals from coming through,” Hall stated. “We still believe in the gold story. If you believe the world is in trouble or in further economic growth disruption, then gold is a good safe haven. If you believe that the world is going to come out okay, then it’s a good inflation hedge.”

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Gold edges up on weaker dollar, dovish U.S. Fed policy bets

Image
 Gold edged higher on Monday, helped by a weaker dollar and expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will reiterate its dovish monetary policy stance this week. Spot gold was up by 0.1% at $1,943.58 per ounce. U.S. gold futures rose 0.1% to $1,950.10 per ounce. “Gold is firm on the basis that the Fed could adopt a further dovish message with respect to average inflation targeting,” said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK. “If you want to have a policy of average inflation targeting, you’re going to have to go into detail as to how you are going to arrive at that particular outcome.” The dollar retreated on Mond ay, bolstering gold’s appeal for investors holding other currencies, ahead of the Fed’s policy decision due on Wednesday. “If inflation forecasts remain at 2% or below, this could offer gold a tailwind as the zero-yielding metal thrives in a low-interest rate environment,” said FXTM analyst Lukman Otunuga. Market participants are also wai...
Read more

For the gold price, two outcomes are possible.

Image
For the gold price, two outcomes are possible. First is a return to or near the April low ($1,277.40). Second is a drop to a lower low, $1,240 - $1,260. Yet a third possible outcome is that the June and December lows were not a double bottom and one further drop may come. I account that the least likely, and look for a low here by the end of the week, but I'm no more'n a nacheral born durnd fool from Tennessee, so what do I know?   You'd think that an institution charged with promoting the gold industry would produce reports that at least cast the best light on gold's prospects. You'd think wrong, if you're thinking about the World Gold Council. They've been negative on gold for, oh, the last 14 years or so. Today they issued a report that contained a nugget about Chinese business using physical gold as collateral for bank credit ($40 bn worth) but they managed to tease a gloomy forecast even out of this inventive monetary use. That and bad ...
Read more

The price of gold advanced as high as $1,603.40 per ounc

Image
The gold price broke out to a new all-time high above $1,600 per ounce Monday morning, rising for the eleventh consecutive trading session. The price of gold advanced as high as $1,603.40 per ounce before backing off to trade just the $1,600 level. The yellow metal gained on the back of a surge in borrowing costs for Italy, the latest European nation to see its bond market come under heavy selling pressure. The lack of a deal to raise the $14.3 trillion debt ceiling also helped boost gold prices. The eleven-day rise in the gold price is the longest winning streak since January of 1980. The gold price delivered another noteworthy performance last week, climbing 3.2% on its way to a series of fresh record highs. With Monday’s advance, the gold price extended its monthly and year-to-date gains to 6.6% and 12.5%, respectively. Last week’s two-day Congressional testimony by Chairman Ben Bernanke on the economy and monetary policy revealed that the Fed remains open to the...
Read more